Democrats see political weapons in proposed budget

? As Democrats leaf through the 2,700 or so pages of President Bush’s proposed budget, they see more than charts and numbers they see potential political weapons.

There is the return of the budget deficit, after four years of Clinton-era surpluses. There are proposed cuts in such popular areas as education and the environment. And there are what some Democrats call threats to the fiscal health of Social Security and Medicare.

“Sadly, the biggest victims of this budget are the people who depend on the government for their retirement security,” said Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D.

White House officials, meanwhile, said they believe they are well-shielded from these kinds of political attacks.

They attributed the estimated budget deficits $106 billion this year, $80 billion next to the ongoing war on terrorism, and the new demands it has made on national defense and homeland security. Bush aides all but dared Democrats to recommend specific tax hikes or budgets if they really want to close those expected deficits.

“It is simply the case that at the moment, there are two or three things that do come ahead even of that goal,” said White House budget director Mitch Daniels. “And those are defeating terror, defending the lives of Americans, and getting the economy rolling again.”

Congress, of course, must approve any final budget, and these kinds of debates will probably continue as Democrats and Republicans wage campaigns for the Nov. 5 congressional elections.

Making it stick

While Democrats can be expected to play up the return of budget deficits, they must also link them to specific economic problems affecting large groups of people, said a variety of political analysts.

“The problem is that everybody thinks the deficit is terrible, but something else is worse, like raising taxes or cutting important programs,” said CNN political analyst William Schneider.

Democrats plan to do just that by arguing that the new deficits have made it impossible for Mr. Bush to pay for his promises on national defense and other essential programs. Also as a result, they said, the Bush budget dips into money set aside for Social Security and Medicare.

Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said he conducted a focus group with voters who raised just these kinds of questions after watching Bush deliver the State of the Union.

“Voters do care about good fiscal management and deficits are a sign of poor fiscal management,” Mellman said.

Linking budget to Enron

Democrats will also try to link the Bush budget to the investigations surrounding Enron, which is accused of inflating its stock value by hiding its losses from shareholders and creditors.

“I think that’s exactly what the federal government is doing,” said Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., chairman of the Senate Budget Committee. “The federal government is now engaged in hiding its debt and understating its debt.”

Democrats say the main culprit is the Bush-backed tax cut of $1.35 trillion over 10 years. But Mr. Bush and his aides have served notice they will cast any attempts to delay or delete parts of the tax cut legislation as a proposed tax increase, calling it the wrong move for an economy seeking to break out of recession.

“The long-term stability and safety of Medicare and Social Security really have nothing to do with tax relief except that tax relief by making a strong economy more likely is a very good step if you are worried about Social Security and Medicare,” Daniels said.

Daniels and aides called the proposed deficits historically small. They also noted that 10-year forecasts still show an overall budget surplus, though it has shrunk from an estimated $5.6 trillion to around $1 trillion (depending on who is doing the counting).

White House aides said many of the cuts reflect the desire to cut back on specific projects that members of Congress want for their districts “earmarks,” in the vernacular of some public officials; “pork” to others.

“If there are attempts to raid Defense for lesser priorities or to raid homeland security for lesser priorities, then we’ll resist that, and I think pretty strongly,” Daniels said.

Amy Walter, who analyzes House races for the Cook Political Report, said Democrats have their work cut out because, at this point at least, most voters do not blame Bush for the recession.

“Many voters never believed there was a surplus to start with,” she added. “We never could see it or feel it or touch it.”