When it comes to commercial development, it’s difficult for a growing city to plan too far ahead.

Plan ahead. It seems like simple enough advice. Looking down the road and setting a direction that others can follow or plan around saves a lot of headaches in the long run.

That’s basically the message an Austin, Tex., consultant delivered last week to members of the Lawrence City Commission and other city officials. The consultant was hired by the city to look at local development policies and see how Lawrence could try to make sure development only happens when the city is able to provide services to a new area.

The city’s development policies generally got good marks from the consultant, but one suggested improvement was for the city to do a better job of getting the horse before the cart  that is, to decide where and what kind of development the city wants and offer incentives to follow that plan.

The consultant is not the first to question the way Lawrence handles new development, especially retail projects. The development on the northeast corner of 31st and Iowa streets is a case in point. Many problems have resulted from plans to switch the use of that property from a mobile home park to the development of two “big box” stores. Expensive new traffic accommodations will be needed and would be for partially by city taxpayers. And the people who developed the Kmart property with the expectation that they would continue to have full access to that property from 31st Street now must deal with intersection changes that will severely limit that access.

The corner of Wakarusa Drive and Sixth Street could become another messy case of the city changing the rules of the game. Traffic loads and access, the total number of retail square feet, the application of zoning rules and the long-range plan all will be issues as developments are proposed for this location. City commissioners ultimately will make the decision.

Some cities have been successful in directing commercial development by establishing restrictive corridors for such development and offering infrastructure and tax incentives for businesses willing to locate there. Such a system can benefit developers by establishing the rules of the game so they can plan accordingly and build projects that are appropriate to the sites. One of the most frequent complaints of developers in Lawrence is that the city changes its mind and its rules after a development is under way or even complete. Resolving the problems created by such shifts is expensive both to developers and taxpayers. Developers certainly could benefit by have consistent, long-range rules, but does establishing these zones indirectly put the city in the development business?

On the other hand, there are too many examples in Lawrence where development has been driven by individual requests. Rather than take a long-range comprehensive look at where and what kind of developments should occur, projects are approved on a case-by-case basis that results in piecemeal development that may not best serve the long-term needs either of city residents or businesses.

What is long-range? Hundreds of interested citizens and elected officials spent many months to reach consensus on Horizon 2020, the current long-range planning document. However, some people involved in that process would argue that it was flawed because it produced a planning document that had too many compromises and was outdated too quickly. The growth predictions related to 2020 were exceeded in the late 1990s.

Developers want predictability. They sink a lot of money into their projects, and they don’t want the rules to change in a way that endangers their investment. If city officials take a long-range view, maybe they could provide that kind of predictability in the form of a plan that also responds to the desires of the community.

History has shown planning must be flexible enough to accommodate changes that inevitably occur. The consultant’s report shouldn’t dictate local planning policy, but it raises once again the question of whether looking further down the road and charting a predictable course for local development can be a win-win situation.