Washington ? A former Cuban ambassador to the United Nations who recently defected said Monday that widespread economic problems on the island could produce an uprising against President Fidel Castro and his system.

Alcibiades Hidalgo, who arrived in South Florida on July 29, said many aspects of daily life in Cuba could produce a “social explosion” at any time.

“There is lot of concern among the elite that this could occur,” said Hidalgo, who also served as chief of staff to Defense Minister Raul Castro, brother of the Cuban leader.

One element of the unrest is what he called “skyrocketing unemployment across the country.” Food is scarce, and many Cubans must get by on one meal a day, he said.

If there is an uprising, he said, the top brass of Cuba’s military all insisted they would use force against the public to preserve the revolution. But, he noted that any high-ranking officer who declined to take such a stand would be immediately purged.

Hidalgo said virtually all Cubans have access to the country’s cost-free health care system but many basic medicines have not been available for years.

He flew Sunday to Washington from Miami and told his story to an Associated Press reporter and a small group of others who specialize on Cuba. The session was arranged by the Center for a Free Cuba, a pro-democracy group.

Hidalgo is one of the most important Cuban defectors whose escape has been publicly reported since Gen. Rafael del Pino fled the island in May 1987. Del Pino was instrumental in the defeat of the U.S.-sponsored invasion at the Bay of Pigs in 1961.

Security agents had trailed Hidalgo virtually nonstop since 1993, when he fell into disfavor with the authorities and was abruptly dismissed from his U.N. post, he said

Hidalgo said Castro, who turns 76 today, has differences with his brother Raul, 71, who is defense minister and the second ranking official in the Council of State and the Council of Ministers.

Although Raul is the heir apparent, Hidalgo said he drank too much, had health problems and didn’t sleep much. Fidel, in contrast, takes care of himself, he said.

Raul would be less inclined toward one-man rule than Fidel, would be more disposed toward economic reform and would show greater flexibility in relations with the United States, Hidalgo said.

Hidalgo shares the Bush administration’s view that congressional attempts to end curbs on Americans’ travel to Cuba, if approved, would be an economic windfall for Cuba and a “gift for Fidel.”

The U.S. economic embargo against Cuba aggravates the island’s problems, he said, but he believed Castro’s socialist policies are principally to blame, something he did not say when he was ambassador to the United Nations in 1992-93. Then he followed the party line by identifying the embargo as the culprit.

“The truth,” he said Monday, “is otherwise.”