U.S. economy sluggish in second quarter

Government report suggests last year's recession hit country harder than originally thought

? The U.S. economy downshifted into a lower gear in the second quarter, due to cautious consumers. Last year’s recession also turned out to be deeper than previously thought, new government figures released Wednesday showed.

The new information confirmed that the economy was sinking well before the Sept. 11 terror attacks something that some economists had suspected.

While the second-quarter figures show an economy struggling to get back to full health, many economists don’t believe the recovery will fizzle out, leading to the dreaded “double-dip” recession.

The Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product grew at a rate of just 1.1 percent in the April-June quarter, down considerably from the brisk 5 percent pace posted in the first three months of the year.

GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced within the United States and is considered the broadest measure of the economy’s health.

The second-quarter performance, weaker than the 2.2 percent growth rate that many analysts had forecast, is the most sluggish growth since the third quarter of 2001.

“It was disappointing, but I don’t think the economy is headed into reverse,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial Services Group. “But I think we’ll have a half-speed recovery. Typically in the first year of a recovery, GDP can grow as much as 6 percent. With this one, I think it will be closer to 3 percent.”

The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, reported that economic activity remained sluggish in the current quarter, with the economy expanding only “modestly” in early July.

Given this, analysts predict the Fed will leave short-term interest rates alone at its next meeting on Aug. 13. Interest rates have been at a 40-year low all year, and most economists believe they will stay unchanged through the rest of 2002.