Economic reports suggest bumpy recovery

? Sharply higher gasoline costs drove up wholesale prices in March by the largest amount in 14 months. Shoppers, hit by more expensive energy bills, spent modestly on other items.

The reports released Friday suggest that the economy is hitting some rough patches on the road to recovery.

Though many economists believe the surge in energy prices is temporary and note that oil prices have retreated from recent highs, the run-up helped make consumers less willing to splurge. It also put the squeeze on already fragile companies, whose deep cuts in capital spending were a key reason the country fell into recession.

“If the economic recovery were a runner I would say it is starting to jog but is not ready for a sprint,” said Tim O’Neill, chief economist at Bank of Montreal.

O’Neill didn’t view Friday’s reports as a sign that the economy was backsliding. “I don’t think there’s anything to suggest the economy is becoming unglued or that it is getting stuck again,” he said.

The 1 percent jump in the Labor Department’s Producer Price Index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach consumers, followed a 0.2 percent increase in February, and largely reflected a sharp increase in energy prices, especially gasoline.

But excluding volatile energy and food prices, the “core” rate of wholesale inflation nudged up just 0.1 percent in March after being flat the month before. That suggests most other prices are remaining well-behaved.

For the 12 months ending in March, wholesale prices actually fell 1.4 percent.

Sales at the nation’s retailers, meanwhile, rose a modest 0.2 percent in March for the second month in a row, the Commerce Department said.

While the increase was smaller than analysts expected, it still shows that consumers whose spending accounts for two-thirds of all economic activity in the United States are out there shopping and aren’t clamping their pocketbooks and wallets shut.

Consumers bought electronics and appliances, building and garden supplies and sporting goods. They spent more on gasoline. But they cut back spending on cars, home furnishings and clothes, and ate out less often.

“The consumer is still buying but the pace is moderate not exuberant,” said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors.

After being tame for months, energy prices rose sharply in March. The 5.5 percent increase was the largest monthly jump since June 2000. Even so, prices still are down 13.5 percent from a year ago.

Tensions in the Middle East and the recent escalation of violence in the region have contributed to the rise. But prices are now easing. Oil prices dropped to around $24 a barrel from around $28 earlier this month.

Still, if there’s one potential wild card in the United States’ economic recovery, it’s the fear of an upward spiral in energy costs.

A dramatic jump in prices could slow or derail the recovery. A worst-case scenario is that out-of-control energy prices would cause consumers to lose confidence and retrench, send corporate profits tumbling and snuff out a comeback from the manufacturing sector.

President Bush, who wants to get credit for steering the country out of its first recession in a decade, has been closely monitoring the situation.

“The energy price situation has recently been a significant risk overhanging both the inflation and general economic performance. But it would appear that risk should start to subside in the next several weeks,” said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Banc of America Capital Management.

Gasoline prices rose 21.3 percent in March, the biggest jump in nearly three years. Still, gasoline prices are running 14.7 percent below last year’s level.

Prices for liquefied petroleum gas, such as propane, went up 23.8 percent. Heating oil prices rose 19.7 percent and residential natural gas costs increased 0.8 percent last month.

To revive the economy, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates 11 times last year. The Fed had plenty of room to act so aggressively because of a long period of well-controlled inflation.

Citing evidence of an economic turnaround, the Fed opted to leave rates alone in January and March. Economists said Friday’s reports raised the odds that the Fed would wait until after May to begin raising interest rates.

Observed Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at LaSalle Bank/ABN AMRO: “The economy is not blowing the doors off.”