photo by: Douglas County GIS/Journal-World

When news emerged that Panasonic was going to build a $4 billion, 4,000-job electric vehicle battery plant in De Soto — about 20 minutes from Lawrence — a natural question followed: Would this massive project put Lawrence on an eastward tilt for the first time in a long time?

If you have followed Lawrence development, you know new growth has been pretty westward oriented for decades. But this battery plant project is unlike any other that has come to the region. In addition to the 4,000 jobs at the plant itself, suppliers to the plant are expected to create another 4,000 jobs in the area. That could potentially be a lot of reasons for Lawrence to add big chunks of new housing on the eastern edge of the community.

I can’t say that there are major signs such an eastward tilt has begun. However, there is one new annexation request that would grow the eastern edge of the city limits, and its goal would be to add additional housing.

Plans have been filed to annex about 5.5 acres of county land on the east side of O’Connell Road into the Lawrence city limits. Plans call for 10 multifamily buildings that would have a total of 38 apartments or townhouse-style homes.

That’s not a huge project in the grand scheme of things, and isn’t a sign that an eastern land rush has begun. But it seems noteworthy nonetheless. If nothing else, it offers us a good excuse to look at a map of property east of O’Connell Road. The map at the top of this article shows just how much undeveloped land is very near O’Connell Road, which is a city street.

Everything that is in a shaded color is currently outside the city limits of Lawrence. As you can see, there is a fair amount of property that could be developed that abuts O’Connell Road, meaning a major, new city street wouldn’t have to be built. That includes the 5.5 acre property that has filed plans. It is in the southern part of the yellow block in the upper left corner of the map. If you are having a hard time picturing it in real life, the property basically is just east of where E. 26th Terrace intersects with O’Connell Road. There are two older rural homes just north of the property. They aren’t included in the annexation request, but are examples of larger properties that are outside the city limits but surrounded by city development.

The map shows there are some really large areas that could be developed east of O’Connell Road, if the city and developers were willing to pay to extend two city streets — namely 31st Street to the east and Franklin Road — that’s the one that goes by the jail — to the south.

Look on the map at the land that is shaded in blue. That represents an area larger than the entire Prairie Park neighborhood in southeast Lawrence. Think of how many homes there are in Prairie Park. Would a development that large help moderate the price of housing in Lawrence? It certainly would help ease the tight supply of building lots in the city, but I’m not sure it would cause the price of housing to actually drop in Lawrence. Rather, it may stop it from going up as quickly as it would otherwise.

If the Panasonic project develops as expected, there are people in the real estate industry who believe the price of housing in Lawrence is going to grow much more quickly than it already is, unless we start developing big chunks of land at a time. Let that sink in. You think your property tax bill already is going up too fast due to rising property values. There is a real chance property values will rise even more quickly if there is not a big jump in housing supply.

photo by: Chad Lawhorn/Journal-World

O’Connell Road on the eastern edge of Lawrence is a location where significant amounts of rural property abuts suburban development.

Of course, having willing landowners who are ready to sell their properties for development is helpful in creating new housing developments. I’m not sure that is the case in this area at the moment. Personally, I don’t have enough money to ask them. But when it comes to landowners, the area does have an attribute developers like. There aren’t a lot of landowners. I’ve listed on the map the landowners of several of the larger tracts. Interestingly, three nonprofit or government entities own a lot of the land. The longtime nonprofit O’Connell Youth Ranch is a large landowner in the area. But so too is the city of Lawrence and the Lawrence school district.

The school district years ago acquired the property near the eastern end of the South Lawrence Trafficway thinking it might need a new far eastern school at some point. The city acquired property adjacent to it, partially because it needed land for a sewage pump station, and also because it thought it might need a far eastern park at some point. Today, you could argue what the city needs more than either a school or a park is additional sites for homebuilding.

Could the city and the school district team up for a unique project to open that land up for housing development? The city has a lot of views on how housing developments should occur these days — the recent denial of a townhouse development plan near 11th and Kasold is sure to frustrate many in the development community — so maybe the city could lead by example and build the type of development that it wants others to create.

That wouldn’t be cheap or conventional, but it might have the added benefit of opening up an entire new area for housing development. If the city and county developed — or hired someone to develop — their properties, it likely would increase the development pressures on the other rural pieces of property in the area.

Some people may not like the sound of that, but if you are a community in need of a thousand or more additional building lots to calm the housing market, you eventually are going to have to convert large chunks of rural land into city land.

As for the small chunk of land that is the subject of this most recent annexation request, the project is being proposed by a group led by Johnson County developer Dave Rhodes. We’ve reported he’s previously developed the Bethel Estates project, which is on the west side of O’Connell Road, near the 23rd Street intersection. That project is affordable townhome-style housing for seniors.

Rhodes didn’t return a call seeking comment on this project, but the filing with City Hall indicated this project also would be geared toward seniors, although it wasn’t clear whether the project would be part of the state’s affordable housing program or whether it would feature market-rate rents.

The development application says the project would consist of 10 townhouse buildings with 38 total living units. Units would have a mix of two to three bedrooms. All would have off-street parking via driveways and garages.

The project must win multiple approvals from both the Lawrence-Douglas County Planning Commission and the Lawrence City Commission before it can proceed.