Halfway through the year, Lawrence is the one metro area in the state that has lost jobs

photo by: John English

This aerial photo taken on June 12, 2022, shows Lawrence with the University of Kansas campus in the background.

At the halfway point of 2022, the Lawrence metro area finds itself in a position it would rather not be in: It is the only metro area in the state that has fewer jobs now than it did a year ago.

The job losses for the Lawrence metro aren’t huge. Jobs located in the Lawrence metro — which comprises all of Douglas County — are down by 300 compared with the same period a year ago. That’s only a 0.6% decline.

What’s more interesting — in addition to the fact that Lawrence was the only metro to produce a decline — is why. The answer most definitely is government jobs. Lawrence has lost government jobs at a far greater rate than any other metro in the state, and is losing the jobs much faster than the state as a whole.

That might surprise some. After all, in the world of government in Douglas County there have been lots of measurements on the rise: amount of federal aid received, amount of sales taxes collected and certainly the amount of property taxes charged.

For the most part, though, it has been cities and the government of Douglas County that have benefited the most from those growing categories. But there are at least two other government employers of note in Douglas County: the public school districts and the University of Kansas.

It is likely those two entities are driving Douglas County’s losses in government jobs.

The Kansas Department of Labor on Friday released its June labor report, which gave us our latest look at job totals in Douglas County and elsewhere.

The number that stood out is that government jobs in Douglas County are down 5.5%, or 700 jobs in total, from June 2021. Statewide, government jobs basically held steady, down 0.2% from a year ago.

Here’s a look at how Lawrence compares with the other metro areas in the state:

• Manhattan: up 3.9%, 400 jobs gained.

• Wichita: up 3.2%, 1,300 jobs gained.

• Kansas City, Kansas: up 0.2%, 100 jobs gained.

• Topeka: down 2.3%, 600 jobs lost.

• Lawrence: down 5.5%, 700 jobs lost.

When you look at private-sector jobs, the Lawrence metro area fares better. The metro has grown jobs in the private sector over the last 12 months. Here’s a look at where Lawrence stands:

• Wichita: up 2.9%, 7,400 jobs gained.

• Kansas City: up 2.1%, 8,700 jobs gained.

• Lawrence: up 1.2%, 400 jobs gained.

• Topeka: up 1.1%, 900 jobs gained.

• Manhattan: up 0.7%, 200 jobs gained.

The statewide average for private-sector job growth was 2.5%, which is kind of interesting because it shows that the smaller communities of Kansas generally are doing better at growing private-sector jobs than the large metros. Wichita was the only metro area that had private-sector job growth above the statewide average.

In terms of the total job picture — both private-sector and government jobs — here’s a look at how the metros stack up for the last 12 months:

• Wichita: up 3.0%, 8,700 jobs gained.

• Kansas City: up 1.9%, 8,800 jobs gained.

• Manhattan: up 1.6%, 600 jobs gained.

• Topeka: up 0.3%, 300 jobs gained.

• Lawrence: down 0.6% 300 jobs lost.

Statewide, jobs grew by 2%, with 27,500 jobs added.

The Kansas Department of Labor report also provided new information about the unemployment rate for the state and counties. As a reminder, the unemployment rate is a bit different from the jobs numbers. The jobs numbers measure how many jobs are located in a county, regardless of whether the worker lives in the county. The unemployment rate doesn’t do anything to measure how many jobs are located in a particular county. Rather, the unemployment rate is measuring how many residents of a county have or do not have a job, regardless of where the job is located.

The Lawrence metro, which is also Douglas County, had an unemployment rate of 3% in June, up from 2.3% in May, but down from 4% in June 2021. So, yes, Lawrence has a lower unemployment rate than a year ago, despite there being fewer jobs in the metro area. One way that is possible is more people who live in Douglas County are commuting outside the county for work. The numbers suggest that is likely the case. The numbers also show there are fewer Douglas County residents who are actively looking for work. The labor force shrunk from a year ago, but not by much. It was down half a percent, or about 300 people.

Here’s a look at other selected unemployment rates:

• Statewide: 2.8% in June 2022; 2.5% in May 2022; 3.9% in June 2021.

• Topeka: 2.7% in June 2022; 2.5% in May 2022; 3.5% in June 2021.

• Wichita: 3.2% in June 2022; 3.0% in May 2022; 5.1% in June 2021.

• Kansas City, Kansas: 2.6% in June 2022; 2.3% in May 2022; 3.7% in June 2021.

• Manhattan: 2.9% in June 2022; 2.3% in May 2022; 3.5% in June 2021.

• Franklin County: 2.7% in June 2022; 2.3% in May 2022; 3.6% in June 2021.

• Jefferson County: 2.7% in June 2022; 2.4% in May 2022; 3.4% in June 2021.

• Leavenworth County: 2.9% in June 2022; 2.6% in May 2022; 3.9% in June 2021.

• Osage County: 2.7% in June 2022; 2.6% in May 2022; 3.4% in June 2021.

There is one other set of employment numbers that shows an interesting trend for Lawrence and Douglas County. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has released its county job totals for all of 2021.

As expected, it showed that 2021 was a bounce-back year for jobs in Douglas County. The county had an average of 46,474 jobs per month in 2021, up 2.1% from the monthly average of 2020.

Douglas County’s 2.1% growth rate was pretty much in line with the other large counties in Kansas, except Wyandotte County, which lost jobs in 2021. Here’s a look at the growth rates in those counties: Johnson: up 2.7%; Shawnee: up 2.4%; Sedgwick: up 2.3%; Riley: up 2.2%; Douglas: up 2.1%; Wyandotte: down 0.3%.

So, if you are following along at home, 2021 was a year of job growth in Douglas County, but we are starting to give back some of those gains in 2022, likely driven by cuts at KU.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic numbers allow us to look back several years, which is interesting to see how we are bouncing back from the pandemic. None of the major counties has yet reached the job totals they had in 2019, before the pandemic hit. However, Douglas County has gained the lowest number of jobs back. Here’s a look at how much lower 2021 job totals are in each county compared with 2019 totals.

• Shawnee County: down 1.5% from 2019.

• Johnson County: down 1.8% from 2019.

• Wyandotte County: down 4.0% from 2019.

• Sedgwick County: down 4.3% from 2019.

• Riley County: down 5.7% from 2019.

• Douglas County: down 6.3% from 2019.

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