photo by: Jackson Barton

The Douglas County Courthouse and downtown Lawrence are pictured in an aerial photo Saturday, July 13, 2019.

Cross one more month off the calendar and add about $400,000 to the potential windfall Lawrence City Hall may have by the end of the year.

The latest sales tax numbers from the state of Kansas show that Lawrence is still on track to have sales tax collections come in about $4 million greater than budgeted in 2021. The October report — which due to normal reporting delays actually measures sales made primarily in August — improved the city’s situation by about $462,000, according to city and state figures.

For the entire year, the city of Lawrence has collected $3.94 million more in sales and use tax revenues than it budgeted to collect. Collections are up about 12% over what the city expected. The city has two more sales tax checks coming in 2021, so the results could still change. But absent a dramatic turn, the city is going to have a windfall of sales tax money to work with as it enters 2022.

Of course, the city also has a 2022 budget that is not balanced and relies on federal grants and reserve funds, so the extra sales tax money won’t necessarily lead to any new, unbudgeted spending. But it may lessen the amount the city has to pull out of existing reserves to cover expenses.

As much as anything, the sales tax numbers provide a snapshot of the Lawrence retail economy. Thus far the picture shows it has been pretty good in 2021, but not as good as several other major cities in the state.

That was the case with the most recent report. The August time period includes the usually crazy back-to-school period, but Lawrence shoppers didn’t go as wild as you might think. Sales tax collections were up 3.1% compared to the same period a year ago. Statewide, sales tax collections for cities and counties averaged 5% for the period.

This latest report follows a dramatic 20% increase in collections that were reported for Lawrence in September, which measured sales made mainly in July. So, maybe some back-to-school shopping was done then. (I’m not saying that a pandemic summer cooped up with your kids makes you eager to get them back to school … but maybe the numbers are.)

When you look at how Lawrence’s sales tax collections have performed for the entire year, it is kind of a middling performance compared to other large retail centers in the state. But also remember that it is a middling performance in an overall great year. Most years, a 3% increase in sales tax collections would be perfectly acceptable in Lawrence, and 5% would be really strong.

• Kansas City: up 11.9%

• Lenexa: up 11.6%

• Overland Park: up 10.5%

• Manhattan: up 10.4%

• Salina: up 9.6%

• Lawrence: up 7.8%

• Sedgwick County: up 7.7%

• Shawnee: up 7.5%

• Olathe: up 7.4%

• Topeka: up 7.2%

As far as who is doing well in Lawrence’s retail economy, the city has some numbers on that too. Somewhat surprisingly — given all the news about supply problems — auto dealerships and auto repair businesses are the biggest winners thus far. Motor vehicle and parts dealers have seen an 18% increase in retail sales tax collections in 2021, the largest of any category in the city.

Other big winners included a couple of businesses that you would expect to be doing better now that pandemic restrictions have loosened. Those include: Restaurants and drinking places up 11.9% and hotels and accommodations up 15.7%. But as we’ve started to go back out to eat again, grocery and liquor stores have seen a bit of a dip, with sales tax collections down 2.9% for the year. But that’s down from a year ago, which was a really good year for most of those businesses. General merchandise stores have seen a 6.3% increase, and home and garden centers are up 8.8%, which is impressive given supply chain issues in that world.

One area that may be taking a hit due to supply issues — or maybe other factors more unique to Lawrence — is the construction industry. Sales tax collections on construction materials are down 8%, one of the larger drops of any category in the city. The largest drop came in the kind of catch-all category of “other services.” It is down 13%. Some of the biggest jobs in that category include barbers and hair stylists, equipment repair businesses, dry cleaners, pet services, photography businesses and a host of others.