Gameday Breakdown: No. 3 Kansas at Texas Tech

Kansas guard Kevin McCullar Jr. (15) elevates for a shot over Oklahoma State guard Chris Harris Jr. (2) during the second half on Saturday, Dec. 31, 2022 at Allen Fieldhouse.

No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks (12-1 overall, 1-0 Big 12) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-3 overall, 0-1 Big 12)

Time: 8 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 3, 2023

Location: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, Texas

TV: ESPN2 | Radio: Jayhawk Radio Network via Learfield

Keys for Kansas

1. The Kevin McCullar factor

Tuesday will mark Kevin McCullar Jr.’s first game against his old team and his first trip back to the arena he called home for the past few years since leaving Lubbock.

McCullar saw firsthand last year how defectors are treated when they return to Lubbock, when former Texas Tech coach Chris Beard came back with the Texas Longhorns and was viciously booed throughout the game and even when the UT bus arrived.

McCullar said Saturday that he’s planning to treat this one like just another Big 12 game, but KU coach Bill Self said the team would talk about McCullar’s return and discuss how to prepare for it.

“Oh yeah, we’ll talk about it for sure,” Self said after last Saturday’s win over Oklahoma State. “But he saw firsthand how you’re supposed to handle a situation like that when Juan (Dajuan Harris Jr.) went back to Columbia (to face Missouri on Dec. 10).”

In that one, which the Jayhawks won by 28, Self said he encouraged Harris to play his game and not try to force anything. He’ll do the same with McCullar, with an assist from the first-year Jayhawk’s teammates.

“It’s going to be a high-atmosphere type of game,” KU junior Jalen Wilson said. “The main thing (in situations like that) is to let our teammates know that we’ve got their back and that they’re not alone. They don’t have to win this game on their own. It’s not on them to win or lose but it’s on us.”

Added KU sophomore KJ Adams: “Obviously I feel like it’s going to be a different type of game for Kevin. But I think Kevin does a good job of focusing on the present and just what our team wants. He never gets outside of himself.”

McCullar did say he was “excited” to play in the game, but as much because it’s the next game up on KU’s schedule as anything.

“It’s going to be fun to go back there and play against them,” McCullar said. “I know it’s going to be electric in there and I know they’re waiting for it. … I’m looking forward to it.”

2. Turn up the pressure

17th-ranked TCU defeated Texas Tech in Saturday’s Big 12 opener for both teams thanks in large part to the 23 TTU turnovers the Horned Frogs forced.

Six different Red Raiders had multiple turnovers, including all five starters, and TCU took full advantage of one of the few true weaknesses Mark Adams’ team has. So far this season, Tech ranks 271st nationally in turnover percentage, giving it away on 20.4% of its possessions.

Texas Tech has done a pretty good job of countering that by ranking 22nd nationally in turnover defense, forcing opponents into turnovers on 24% of their possessions. That’s nothing new, of course, as Adams’ teams have always led with their defense.

TCU turned it over just 15 times last Saturday, leaving Texas Tech with a -8 mark in the turnover battle.

Interestingly enough, TTU turned it over just 19 times, while forcing 23 total in its only other losses this season to Ohio State and Creighton.

Saturday’s turnover explosion was a season-high for the Texas Tech offense, which will have its hands full against a KU team that ranks 37th nationally in turnover defense at 22.5%. Digging deeper, KU ranks 14th nationally in steal percentage, flat-out taking the ball away from its opponents on 13.6% of their possessions.

The bottom line is pretty simple: If KU can turn Tech over and keep its steal percentage turned up, the Jayhawks will have a great shot at leaving Lubbock with a win.

3. What happens behind the arc?

Self said recently that the Jayhawks have been so good at getting to the rim so far this season that they’ve shot more 3-pointers than he expected they would.

This could be a game where that changes.

Despite ranking 217th nationally at 21.1 3-point attempts per game, the Jayhawks have capable shooters, many of which can get hot on a moment’s notice. When you look at the fact that Texas Tech’s opponents are getting 40% of their shots per game from behind the 3-point line, it could be crucial for the Jayhawks to take — and make — 3-pointers in this one.

The key, of course, will be to take good 3-point shots, not guarded or rushed shots from long range.

Here’s the crazy thing about this area, both KU and Texas Tech’s defenses rank near the bottom of Division I in 3-point attempts allowed per field goals attempted, but a lot of that, for both teams, is by design, with the Jayhawks and Red Raiders preferring to dictate what shots opponents take rather than the opposite.

Still, if KU can move the ball with crisp, quick passes and get movement to the third side of the floor — pass away, reverse the ball and then go back to the side it began — the 3-point looks the Jayhawks get in this one could be more open and therefore more makeable.

That might be a welcome sight for freshman guard Gradey Dick, who faced suffocating defense from Oklahoma State’s Avery Anderson III last weekend.

It’s all about making the right reads, being decisive while doing so and knocking down shots.

Texas Tech will look to do the same, and the Red Raiders enter this one ranked 67th nationally in 3-point shooting at 36.7% while Kansas currently ranks 62nd, a few ticks better at 37%.

Marquee Matchup

KU forward KJ Adams vs. Texas Tech big man Kevin Obanor

Obanor is the Red Raiders’ best player and leading scorer, at 15.8 points per game. And Adams was called by Self just the other day one of the most improved players in the entire country.

“There’s a lot of improved players out there,” Self said. “But I don’t know that there’s anybody who’s improved as much as he has from the end of last season to now.”

For a while, that meant Adams holding his own on defense. But now, after a solid stretch during the past six games, Adams’ offense has become a major factor not only in his game but also for the Jayhawks.

It’s possible, perhaps even likely, that Adams will have to spend some time dealing with 6-11 big man Daniel Batcho in this matchup. But KU has shown plenty of times that they’re happy to double-team bigger players when they catch the ball on the block to take them away.

Obanor won’t be nearly as easy to take away. He has the kind of all-around game that will test Adams in a variety of ways. He’ll have to guard the perimeter, battle with him down low and match his intensity. If there’s one area Adams has an advantage it’s in the way of athleticism.

Adams is the far more explosive player between the two, but Obanor’s experience and versatility should make this matchup a heck of a showdown.

Obanor is shooting 53% from the floor, 36% from 3-point range and 87% at the free throw line. He also has guards who have the quickness to attack the paint and create easy looks for him both inside and out.

If Adams comes anywhere close to matching Obanor’s final stat line, KU will win.

In three games against the Jayhawks last season, Obanor combined for 35 points and 21 rebounds, shooting 13-of-21 from the floor, including 3-of-8 from 3-point range.

Jayhawk Pulse

There’s no such thing as an easy game in the Big 12 Conference anymore, but the Jayhawks are poised to get one of the tougher games out of the way early.

Playing in Lubbock has certainly been an absolute grind in recent years, partly because of Tech’s talent and partly because of the atmosphere. With the Red Raiders already one game down in Big 12 play, the building and team figure to be turned up for their next chance at Kansas.

Self said Saturday that the short turnaround between the Oklahoma State win and KU’s road opener would make this game “a really tough challenge for us.” Look no further than how the 2022 national championship team handled its home-and-home series with Texas Tech for proof of that.

“Tech’s not the easiest team to prepare for because they guard different than everybody else,” Self said of Texas Tech’s defense which funnels the ball to one side and tries to take away the rest of the court, leaving little room for opponents to attack, space the floor and operate. “Everybody tries to simulate what they do but they can’t. They guard different than everybody else.”

“Last year, the first time we played them we stunk. Got beat,” Self added of KU’s eight-point loss in Lubbock in Game 2 of the Big 12 schedule a season ago. “And then after we had a chance to see it once and then practice against it we were a little bit better.”

Kansas, which has won six in a row since falling to Tennessee in the finals of the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament more than a month ago, leads the all-time series with Texas Tech 41-7.

Texas Tech opened the season ranked in the AP Top 25 but November losses to Creighton and Ohio State knocked the Red Raiders from the poll and they have yet to jump back in.

KenPom.com lists KU as a 2-point favorite in this one, with a 59% win probability.

Probable Starters

No. 3 Kansas

G – Dajuan Harris Jr., 6-1, 175, Jr.

G – Kevin McCullar Jr., 6-6, 210, Sr.

G – Gradey Dick, 6-8, 205, Fr.

F – Jalen Wilson, 6-8, 225, Soph.

F – KJ Adams, 6-7, 225, Soph.

Texas Tech

G – Pop Isaacs, 6-2, 170, Fr.

G – De’Vion Harmon, 6-2, 205, Sr.

G – Jaylon Tyson, 6-6, 210, Soph.

F – Kevin Obanor, 6-8, 235, Sr.

F – Daniel Batcho, 6-11, 235, Soph.

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