Early in the season, as Peyton Manning drove fantasy footballers to distraction by handing off, the NFL MVP looked like Steve Smith, the Carolina wide receiver, or San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson. Later, Seattle’s Shaun Alexander joined the mix.

Now?

For the third straight season, Manning is the favorite. No, he’s not close to last season’s record numbers, and he could come up short of 4,000 yards for the first time since his rookie season in 1998.

But he’s the most important player on the NFL’s best team. And he still leads the league with a passer rating of 108.2, short of last year’s record of 121.2, but still good enough to be the ninth all-time.

The choice will be made after the regular season by 50 well-informed folks, and things can still happen. But if Manning is the MVP, he would be only the second player to win the award three straight times, joining Brett Favre (1995-97). Both would have a shared award: Manning with Steve McNair in 2003, and Favre with Barry Sanders in 1997.

Again, it’s too early for definitive judgments. But not for some early thoughts.

MVP

Manning. Alexander, Smith, Tomlinson and Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer are there, but No. 2 might be one of the NFL’s most overlooked players, Tiki Barber of the Giants.

Indianapolis colts quarterback Peyton Manning according to AP sports writer Dave Goldberg, likely will win the NFL's Most Valuable Player award based on his statistics as of today.

Yeah, teammate Eli Manning makes magazine covers, because he’s a Manning and plays in New York. Still, other New York players are overlooked, notably Barber and Curtis Martin of the Jets, who is fourth on the career rushing list. With Eli demonstrating second-year shakiness, Barber has been a rock. He’s third in the NFL in rushing and leads in total yards from scrimmage at 1,749, six ahead of Tomlinson, who gets a lot more TV highlight time because he’s flashier.

For the sake of discussion, throw in a couple of defensive ends: Dwight Freeney of the Colts and Michael Strahan of the Giants.

One vote as of now;

1. Manning (Peyton, of course). 2. Barber. 3. Alexander. 4. Palmer. 5. Tomlinson.

Coach of the Year

Normally this goes to someone who brings a team from nowhere into the playoffs. Rarely does it go to a coach whose team is supposed to be good – Bill Belichick won it in 2003, but that was after the Patriots’ one down year in a stretch that otherwise included three Super Bowl wins.

This year, the leader has to be Tony Dungy if the Colts go unbeaten. If they don’t, Dungy could lose votes for considering the Super Bowl more important.

Lovie Smith of the Bears and Marvin Lewis of the Bengals fall into the normal category of guys with teams who made big moves up. Chicago’s resurgence is a big surprise, Cincinnati’s is less so. They also fit another vote-getting category: coaches who improve a team quickly after taking over.

Seattle's Shaun Alexander reacts after scoring on a three-yard run against San Francisco on Sunday in Seattle. Alexander has rumbled for 1,496 yards and 23 rushing touchdowns for the 11-2 Seahawks this season.

But there are veterans who deserve notice, including Tampa Bay’s Jon Gruden, Denver’s Mike Shanahan, and the Giants’ Tom Coughlin. Plus a guy named Belichick, who despite a spate of injuries and other problems has his team in position to at least try for a third straight Super Bowl victory.

The preliminary choices:

1. Dungy. 2. Smith. 3. Lewis. 4. Gruden. 5. Shanahan.

Offensive Player

See MVP. No decision yet, but maybe someone other than Manning (Peyton, not Eli). Alexander, Barber, Tomlinson, Smith, Palmer, Washington’s Santana Moss or Peyton’s teammate, Edgerrin James.

Defensive Player

Freeney is the best defensive player on the best team. He also makes everyone on his unit better, such as Robert Mathis, the part-time pass rusher who has 11 1â2 sacks to Freeney’s 91â2.

The same can be said of Strahan, who is 34 and coming off a torn pectoral muscle that cost him half of last season. He has 111â2, one less than Osi Umenyiora, his third-year opposite number.

Umenyiora is a candidate himself, more than just a pass rusher. Two weeks ago, he ran down Dallas’ Julius Jones from behind, holding him to two yards on what looked to be a potential 25-30-yard run, and he forced the fumble in Philadelphia that led to the winning field goal last week.

Usually, names get priority (such as Strahan over Osi). Tampa Bay’s Ronde Barber (another brother act) and Chicago’s Brian Urlacher are also standout name players on good defenses. But Chicago is more than Urlacher. Think Mike Brown, Alex Brown, Adewale Ogunleye and Nathan Vasher.

Other possible winners: linebackers such as Indy’s Cato June and the Giants’ Antonio Pierce (both currently hurt), Denver CB Champ Bailey (big name, too many big plays allowed), Kansas City DE Jared Allen, Minnesota DT Pat Williams, Dallas safety Roy Williams, Carolina LB Dan Morgan and DE Julius Peppers. And a lot more.

Special mention to Oakland’s Derrick Burgess and Tennessee’s Kyle Vanden Bosch, standouts on bad teams. Vanden Bosch is the latest in a long line of guys who become stars when they leave Arizona.

1. Freeney. 2. Strahan. 3. Vasher. 4. Barber (Ronde). 5. Umenyiora (got to get two new guys in).

Offensive Rookie

It looked easy early when Tampa Bay’s Carnell “Cadillac” Williams became the first player in NFL history to begin his career with three 100-yard rushing games, gaining 434 yards. Then he sprained his foot, sat out two games and part of a third and took his time regaining his form.

Still, he’s the leading rookie rusher with 934 yards to 841 for his teammate at Auburn, Ronnie Brown of the Dolphins. Brown shares time with Ricky Williams and has a higher average, but the Bucs lost three of four when Cadillac was hurt, so his value is pretty evident.

Others?

Kyle Orton doesn’t have numbers, but he’s steered the Bears to the division lead, unheard of for a rookie QB not named Roethlisberger. Plus a lot of guys with promise.

Quick picks:

1. Williams. 2. Brown. 3. Orton. 4. Marion Barber III, RB, Dallas. 5. (tie) Matt Jones, WR, Jacksonville, and Reggie Brown, WR, Philadelphia (T.O.’s replacement). Honorable mention for position and sixth-round status: Rob Petitti, OT, Dallas.

Defensive Rookie

There are some instant impact rookies on winning teams.

Biggest impact: Lofa Tatupu, LB, Seattle. Second biggest impact: Odell Thurman, LB, Cincinnati. Third biggest impact: Darrent Williams and Domonique Foxworth, DBs, Denver. None is a first-rounder. Plus pass-rushers Shawne Merriman, San Diego, and DeMarcus Ware, Dallas. Adam “Pacman” Jones, DB, Tennessee, was trouble early, spectacular late.

1. Tatupu. 2. Thurman. 3. Merriman. 4. Ware. 5. Williams.

Comeback Player

Tedy Bruschi will get a lot of votes because he came back from a stroke and he’s been a great player in the past. He isn’t playing at that level, but just the idea of playing eight months after that kind of problem will make him a favorite.

But Steve Smith missed almost all of last season after breaking his leg in the opener. He has 87 catches for 1,329 yards and 10 touchdowns. The catches and yards lead the league.

Strahan is 34 and playing like he’s 24 after missing half of last season. He’s up to ninth on the career sacks list and is still a great run-stuffer even though he’s down to 255 pounds.

Another player to consider: Drew Bledsoe, miserable in Buffalo last year, pretty good in Dallas.

1, Smith. 2, Strahan. 3. Bruschi. 4. Bledsoe.

Dirty Dozen

The top six and bottom six teams based on current level of play:

1. Indianapolis (13-0). Even if they lose one, they stay here.

2. Cincinnati (10-3). Slight slip last week.

3. Seattle (11-2). Won’t have it easy in the playoffs.

4. Denver (10-3). Narrow escape against Baltimore.

5. New England (8-5). No one wants to meet the Patriots in the playoffs.

6. Tampa Bay (9-4). Or the Giants, Panthers, Cowboys, Bears in a very even NFC.

27. New Orleans (3-10). Turmoil hurts, but a bad team in any event.

28. Green Bay (3-10). A lot of luck last week.

29. Baltimore (4-9). Boller’s last season in Baltimore? And Billick’s?

30. Detroit (4-9). Roy Williams is a good player. They need more.

31. Houston (1-12). Have a chance to win this week.

32. San Francisco (2-11). Reggie Bush bowl in closer vs. Houston.