Topeka ? Republicans are counting on a Kansas springtime ritual to prop up the state budget they’ve pushed through the Legislature.

It takes place today, behind closed doors, when officials and university economists gather to issue a new fiscal forecast for the state. Basically, the group decides how much money the state has to spend, and the group’s numbers are treated as if written in stone.

This year, Republicans need a more optimistic revenue projection than the one issued in November. Otherwise, the $11.3 billion spending plan they’ve drafted for the fiscal year beginning July 1 will lay waste to the state’s finances the very next year.

GOP leaders insisted on increasing spending on public schools without raising taxes, and there is no indication that legislators are ready to expand gambling to raise money. They’re counting on the state’s economy to grow.

“Our expectation is that the economy is on the rebound and that revenues are going to pick up,” said Senate Majority Leader Derek Schmidt, R-Independence. “We accounted for that.”

The budget sent by legislators to Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius increases overall spending by $433 million, or about 4 percent. That’s enough to give state workers a modest pay increase and keep up with the rising costs of medical services for low-income residents.

The Legislature’s budget also reflects the GOP’s plan to increase annual spending on public schools by $127 million, using existing revenues and cash reserves. Sebelius also wants to boost education funding, but last year, she proposed a tax increase to support the new spending.

The fiscal 2006 budget isn’t quite finished. When legislators return from their annual spring break on April 27, they’ll have to consider one last spending bill to tie up loose ends and correct any mistakes they discover.

In recent years, legislators have fallen into the habit of relying on accounting tricks and extra help from the federal government to avoid having to make cuts. As the economy has recovered, the state has been able to build up its cash reserves, a cushion against bad financial times. Like many families who live paycheck to paycheck, the state is relatively comfortable, so long as there’s not a crisis.

But under the state’s current fiscal forecast, trouble looms.

In previous years, the state committed money to transportation projects and shoring up the long-term health of its public pension plans. Those bills come due in fiscal 2007. Medical services for low-income Kansans and the disabled probably will continue to eat up new dollars as well.

Legislators knew that when they considered how to respond to the Kansas Supreme Court’s order that the Legislature increase aid to public schools and distribute the money more fairly, setting an April 12 deadline.

Without new revenues from raising taxes or expanding gambling — or a growing economy — the GOP school finance plan depletes the state’s cash reserves, something Sebelius has called “a recipe for financial disaster.”

Those reserves are projected at $251 million for June 30. Under the budget approved by legislators, they’d be cut in half within a year, then disappear by mid-2007. Unless, of course, the economy grows, and tax revenue increases along with it.

Some Republicans argue November’s fiscal forecast was too conservative, projecting 2.7 percent growth in general revenues in fiscal 2006. They said a more reasonable projection is 4 percent growth. And state tax collections for fiscal 2005 are running 4.7 percent ahead of fiscal 2004’s collections.

“We’re waiting and anticipating good numbers,” said Senate Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dwayne Umbarger, R-Thayer.

Budget Director Duane Goossen agrees the state’s economy is growing. But he said the fiscal forecasters — he is among them — will have several issues to consider in issuing new numbers.

First, he said, they’ll have to consider how much of this year’s revenues were generated by economic growth. Workers paid every other Friday received a final, 27th paycheck on Dec. 31, 2004 — perhaps inflating income tax collections.

Secondly, Goossen said, the fiscal forecasters must consider how rising fuel prices will affect the economy.

Finally, costs of medical services for low-income Kansans and the disabled continue to rise, eating up new dollars.

For the new revenue figures to help legislators, Goossen said, “They have to get a lot better — a lot, lot better.”