Classes begin today in the Lawrence public school district under the cloud of a possible third consecutive year of declining enrollment and the loss of hundreds of thousands of dollars in state aid.

Enrollment at the district’s 18 elementary schools could fall more than 100 students below projections.

Pinckney School teachers Lori Arnold, left, and Michelle Jacobsen fill back-to-school goodie bags for each of their fourth-grade students. The teachers prepared Tuesday for today's start of the 2002-03 classes. As the school year starts in Lawrence, district administrators are bracing for the effects of lower enrollment on state aid to Lawrence public schools.

“Preliminary numbers indicate that’s a strong possibility,” Supt. Randy Weseman said Tuesday. “The projection was for zero growth.”

A decline of 100 students would cost the district nearly $400,000 in funding from the state, which bases appropriations to public school districts on the official enrollment count taken Sept. 20.

The dip at elementary schools could be partially offset by increases at junior high schools and high schools, said Scott Morgan, school board president.

He said preliminary enrollment figures, based on an Aug. 1 report from each school, didn’t show the complete picture.

“It doesn’t tell me where we are until we have a week of school, and the numbers start solidifying,” Morgan said.

District staff will take an enrollment snapshot Monday, the first day all students are required to be in class.

Total enrollment in the district will be about 10,000 students.

The biggest oddity on the district’s enrollment landscape may be at Quail Run School. Located on Inverness Drive in an affluent area of the city, Quail Run has maintained a steady enrollment as one of the district’s largest elementary schools.

Here’s a look at the five largest enrollment declines in Lawrence elementary schools, based on preliminary totals, according to the Lawrence school district. School Projected enrollment Preliminary headcount Quail Run 464 401 Hillcrest 364 347 Cordley 197 182 Langston Hughes 279 265 Deerfield 515 502

Quail Run Principal Paulette Strong said this year would be different. She expects to welcome about 401 students 63 fewer than projected.

In part, she blamed the weakened Kansas economy.

“People lost their jobs in either Topeka or Kansas City. So whole families had to move,” Strong said.

Those families have had a difficult time selling their homes, delaying the influx of new families with children to the Quail Run area.

Strong said Quail Run’s numbers also reflected the desire of some parents to place children in all-day kindergarten programs. The Lawrence district had all-day programs at five elementary schools, but eliminated those this year in a cost-cutting move.

“People want full-day kindergarten in this town,” the superintendent said. “That’s a big deal.”

Weseman also said popularity of private schools and home schooling continued to draw down elementary enrollment.

One elementary school in Lawrence certain to have higher enrollment, according to the preliminary figures, is Woodlawn School in North Lawrence.

An increase there was anticipated, since the district closed Grant School in May and transferred about 25 children to Woodlawn.