Douglas County topping a list of new Census population numbers; a look at the handful of Kansas counties that actually are growing

Maybe the folks building all those apartments in Lawrence aren’t insane after all. Perhaps the same goes for retailers wanting to build new stores along south Iowa Street too. Since 2010, Douglas County has added nearly 9,000 residents, according to a new Census report. That’s a growth rate that is even higher than Johnson County.

Since the 2010 Census, Douglas County has added 8,614 residents. As of July 1, 2016, Douglas County had 119,440 people. Since the 2010 Census, Douglas County’s population has grown by 7.7 percent. Of all the urban counties in Kansas, Douglas County has the highest population growth rate this decade. It beat out Johnson County, which had a 7.4 percent growth rate.

Those are the type of growth numbers that catch the attention of businesses and builders. They are even more noticeable given the fact that there are only a handful of counties in Kansas that are posting any population gains.

According to the recently released annual county population estimates produced by the Census Bureau, only 23 of Kansas’ 105 counties have added population this decade. Many of them have just barely added population. When you look at the counties that have added population at a rate of 1 percent or more, there are only 14 counties.

Those numbers may help explain some of the building, and some of the interest retailers have expressed in the city in recent years. Heck, it may even help explain the explosion of chicken restaurants. Take a fast food chicken chain, for example. The chain decides it wants to enter the Kansas City market. Chains have figured out that it is more efficient to operate multiple stores in a region rather than one. So, a chain may come to the region for Kansas City, but it needs to open additional stores near the Kansas City market to maximize efficiency. When they turn their attention to Kansas’ side of the state line, there simply aren’t very many counties that are posting positive demographics.

In fact, the number posting positive numbers is growing smaller. As I reported, there are only 23 counties in the state that have posted positive population growth numbers this decade. Back in 2010 when the Census was released, there were 28 counties that posted population gains. Not good news for the state, but Lawrence is likely standing out even more these days.

What’s more, the report indicates Douglas County has good momentum currently. In 2016, Douglas County grew by 1.2 percent, or an estimated 1,485 people. Again, the 1.2 percent growth rate was the highest of any urban county in the state.

Douglas County can’t quite make the claim to be the fastest-growing county in the state. (I know, some Lawrence residents don’t want to make that claim anyway.) What county is besting Douglas County? If you are thinking it may be related to the other major university community in the state — Manhattan — you are correct, but only partially.

Douglas County is growing better than Riley County, home to K-State. In fact, Douglas County is growing quite a bit better. Since 2010, Riley County’s growth rate is 3.1 percent, less than half of Douglas County’s. Riley County’s population took a particular hit in 2016. It declined by almost 2,000 residents.

But part of Manhattan also is located in Pottawatomie County. Pottawatomie only has about 24,000 residents, but it is the fastest growing county in the state right now. In 2016, it grew by 2 percent, and since 2010 it has grown by 9.5 percent.

Of course, this means one thing for Pottawatomie: It should get ready for more fried chicken.

Here’s a look at some other numbers from the report. First, a look at the counties that surround Douglas County, with their 2016 population and their growth rate for the decade

• Franklin: 25,560, up 1 person from 2015; since 2010 down 1.6 percent

• Jefferson: 18,897, up 11 people from 2015: since 2010 down 1.2 percent

• Johnson: 584,451 up 5,693 people from 2015; since 2010 up 7.4 percent

• Leavenworth: 80,204 up 997 people from 2015; since 2010 up 5.2 percent

• Osage: 15,843 down 69 people from 2015; since 2010 down 2.7 percent

• Shawnee: 178,146 down 395 people from 2015; since 2010 up 0.1 percent

I mentioned earlier that there are only 14 counties that have posted population growth of 1 percent or greater this decade. Here’s that list.

• Pottawatomie: up 9.5 percent

• Douglas: up 7.7 percent

• Johnson: up 7.4 percent

• Leavenworth: up 5.2 percent

• Wyandotte: up 4 percent

• Greeley: up 3.9 percent

• Geary: up 3.5 percent

• Riley: up 3.1 percent

• Logan: up 2.7 percent

• Sedgwick: up 2.7 percent

• Scott: up 1.9 percent

• Butler: up 1.7 percent

• Ellis: up 1.5 percent

• Rawlins: up 1.1 percent

It may not be entirely accurate to say that Douglas County is booming. But Lawrence in the last two years has set new building permit records. I hold off on labeling it a boom because in the 1990s when growth was really humming, Lawrence was growing closer to 2 percent per year. We’re not to those levels. But one similarity between then and now is that in the 1990s, Douglas County often was at the top or near the top of the fastest growing places in the state.

For the time being, we are again. When the decade ends in a short three years, it will be interesting to see what Lawrence has to show for it.