Lawrence home sales surge in April; new report finds local housing value growth lagging region; new sights coming to downtown sidewalks

Perhaps I need to fire my Leavenworth-based tax preparer (his motto: I wish I had an open door policy) because it sure looks like a lot of people’s tax refunds in April were bigger than mine. Or at least something spurred a surge in home buying in Lawrence, according to the latest figures from the Lawrence Board of Realtors.

Lawrence real estate agents sold 113 homes in April, which is an increase of 25 percent from April 2014. April is a key month in the home-buying market as many buyers are on the market in the spring looking to get settled into a new home during the summer.

The strong April numbers are the latest sign Lawrence’s real estate market is in full bounce-back mode. For the year-to-date, Lawrence’s home sales are up 18 percent from the same period a year ago. Last year, the Lawrence market ended the year with home sales down slightly from 2013 totals. The city’s real estate market, though, experienced growth in 2013 and 2012, so the latest numbers are indicating that last year’s slowdown may end up being just a small road bump rather than the beginning of a new trend.

In fact, the most recent figures include several signs that buyers are back in a big way. Here’s a look:

• Sales of newly constructed homes entered positive territory in April. Real estate agents sold seven newly built homes in April, up from four in April 2014. For the year-to-date, sales of newly constructed homes total 16, which is up from 13 in the same time period a year ago. Those numbers aren’t great — they’re still down by 10 homes from 2013 figures — but any type of bounce-back would be welcome by homebuilders. The sale of newly constructed homes was the weakest part of the market last year. Sales in that category fell by 19 percent in 2014.

• The median number of days a home sits on the market unsold has fallen significantly. Thus far in 2015, the median is at 43 days, down from 60 days in 2014.

• The number of pending contracts at the end of April totaled 257, which is up 29 percent from April 2014. That likely is a sign that sale numbers in May and June also should be strong.

• The number of active listings on the market in April totaled 346, which is down nearly 20 percent from April 2014 totals. The declining number of active listings, and the declining number of days a home sits on the market are indicators that there’s been an influx of buyers.

One thing we haven’t seen, however, is an increase in home prices in Lawrence. The numbers from the Lawrence Board of Realtors show the median sale price thus far in 2015 is $158,900, which is basically unchanged from the $158,500 mark at this time last year. The median selling price of newly constructed homes is up significantly. It checks in at $337,495, which is a 10 percent increase from a year ago.

It has been interesting to watch what has happened to the selling prices of newly constructed homes in Lawrence over the last several years. At the end of 2011, the median selling price for a newly built home was $245,000. We’ve seen an increase of 37 percent in median price in less than four years. Back in 2011, the gap between the median selling price of an existing home and a new home was about 45 percent. Thus far in 2015, the gap is about 110 percent. As I’ve been known to say when my key no longer works in my home lock: I don’t know exactly what this means, but it seems significant.


• On the subject of housing prices, there’s an even better set of numbers that have been recently released for the Lawrence market. They show an even more pronounced stagnation of housing prices in Lawrence.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency has released its first quarter numbers for home prices in metro areas across the country. These numbers give a better indication of whether home values are rising or falling than the Board of Realtor numbers. That’s because the Board of Realtor numbers simply look at all the homes sold in a given time period, compute and average and then compares that average to the same period in previous years. That, however, doesn’t take into account the type of homes being sold. If in 2015, 40 percent of the home sales in Lawrence consisted of five-bedroom homes while in 2014 they only accounted for 30 percent of sales, it is likely the average selling price is going to be higher. But that doesn’t mean home values in general are rising. It just means the mix of housing sales is different than it used to be. The Federal Housing Finance Agency has access to more detailed mortgage information, and it is able to account for such factors and conduct a more apples-to-apples comparison.

The latest numbers show that Lawrence home values in the first quarter of 2015 actually declined slightly. Prices dropped by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of the year. For the last 12 months, home values in Lawrence have risen by 2.43 percent. Compared to other metro markets, that’s not a lot. Lawrence ranks 237th out of the approximately 275 metro markets that are measured.

The agency also provides information on housing values over the last five years. Here’s a look at how Lawrence stacks up compared to some other regional markets:

• Lawrence: down 0.2 percent (1Q); up 2.4 percent (1yr); up 3 percent (5yr)

• Boulder, Colo.: up 0.4 percent; up 7.5 percent; up 20.7 percent

• Columbia, Mo.: up 0.2 percent; up 4.6 percent; up 6.8 percent

• Fort Collins, Colo.: up 1.4 percent; up 9 percent; up 22.3 percent

• Greeley, Colo: up 2 percent, up 9.2 percent; up 23.2 percent

• Iowa City: up 0.9 percent; up 2.3 percent; up 6.6 percent

• Joplin, Mo.: up 3.1 percent; up 3.4 percent; up 9 percent

• Kansas City, Mo.-Ka.n: up 0.6 percent; up 5.1 percent; up 3.1 percent

• Lincoln, Neb.: up 1 percent; up 4.1 percent; up 12.4 percent

• Topeka: down 1.9 percent; up 1.8 percent; down 0.8 percent

• Wichita: up 2 percent; up 5.7 percent; up 3.8 percent

So, looking at those numbers, there are two obvious conclusions: 1. We need more mountains; and 2. The beautiful Kaw River isn’t the selling point it used to be.

The mountains are easy to see. Over the last five years, the Colorado communities have seen their home values soar by about 4 percent to 5 percent a year. Back in the 1990s, such appreciation of home values was fairly common in Lawrence too. Clearly, someone has stolen our mountains.

In terms of the Kaw, I say that because look at the three communities that line the Kansas River. Lawrence, Topeka and Kansas City all have seen pretty stagnant home values over the last five years. When you average the growth rates for the three communities, it comes out to 1.7 percent for the five-year period. Not 1.7 percent per year, but 1.7 percent cumulative.

How fast housing values should grow in a community is a matter of debate. Grow too fast and you can price a lot of people out of your market. But grow too slowly, and some people may take a pass on your market because they want their home to be somewhat of an investment in addition to a place that provides shelter. Maybe Lawrence’s growth rate is just right, but it does appear to be slower than a lot of other communities in the region. It would be interesting to know what that says about our community.


In other news and notes from around town:


• I’ve had some people ask what is going into the former Yellow House building at 1904 Massachusetts Street. Construction work is underway to renovate the building. Well, according to documents filed at City Hall, a tattoo parlor is opening in the location. A business called Miller Tattoo has filed for a sign permit at the location.


• Funny things are set to happen on Lawrence’s downtown sidewalks, and I’m not even talking about what happens to them after happy hour becomes a bit too happy. The Free State Festival — the big arts, culture and entertainment event set for June 22-28 — plans to get creative in how it promotes the event.

That means you’ll start seeing some advertisements and art show up on city sidewalks. The festival has requested city permission to place vinyl lettering and signs on sidewalks and parking lots across town. The festival organizers list about 25 different locations across town, but primarily concentrated in downtown, where they would like to use the vinyl lettering and signs. Organizers say the letter is non-slip, so it should not create any safety issues. The lettering and signs would be removed from the sidewalks once the festival is over.

But there may be an even funkier item coming to downtown sidewalks. Festival organizers are seeking permission to use “GOBO” lights to project images onto downtown sidewalks. The plans calls for each intersection on Massachusetts Street from Seventh to 10th streets to have at least one GOBO display. To be clear, the display would be on one of the adjacent sidewalks next to the intersection, not in the intersection itself.

What is a GOBO, you ask? Well, a GOBO is a stencil that is placed over the lens of a light. The result is the light emits a certain pattern. Probably the most famous GOBO is the bat signal that is used to call Batman in times of need. Unlike the bat signal, these GOBOs will be used to project light down onto the sidewalk rather than up in the sky.

But don’t let that difference fool you. I’m almost certain that this means Batman will be making an appearance at the Free State Festival. I strongly suggest you all get your Robin costumes ready.