City Hall prepares to debate proposed shopping center south of SLT and Iowa interchange; library wins national designation

There are a multitude of reasons why Lawrence City Hall may be interested in a few more coins. Sure, there are the obvious budgetary reasons. But these days just as important is that an extra quarter may come in handy for flipping to break 2-2 ties on a shorthanded City Commission. See Tuesday night. Regardless, city commissioners soon will have to decide whether a proposed shopping center south of the South Lawrence Trafficway is a good way for the community to get a few more coins.

As we previously have reported an out-of-state development group has filed plans to build a new shopping center at the southeast corner of the SLT and Iowa Street interchange. The project would have about 250,000 square feet of space for new retailers and restaurants. No official word on the proposed tenants, but previously the development group has said Academy Sports, Old Navy, Marshalls/Home Goods, Designer Shoe Warehouse and other smaller retailers want to come to the site.

The Lawrence-Douglas County Planning Commission will hear arguments for and against the project at its Monday evening meeting at City Hall. The big news on the project this week is that the city’s professional planning staff is recommending approval of the project. But that and a quarter will get you a tie-breaking device at City Hall and a really, really bad cup of coffee. Ultimately, city commissioners — whether it be four of them or five of them — will make the final decision on whether the project wins the necessary rezoning and planning approvals.

There are lots of issues with this one. So, let’s take a look:

• The latest documents at City Hall provide a better idea of the tenant mix that North Carolina-based Collet real estate hopes to bring to the center.

• Two stores in the sporting goods and hobby and books category totaling 117,000 square feet. Academy Sports would seem to be one of those.

• Five restaurants — three of the sit-down variety and two fast-food restaurants — totaling 30,500 square feet. Could this be the shopping center that finally lands the elusive Olive Garden or Red Lobster? Developers have not said, but certainly that rumor is out there.

• Two furniture and home furnishing stores totaling 28,000 square feet. It would seem Marshalls/Home Goods may be one of those retailers.

• Three clothing stores totaling 24,900 square feet. Old Navy seems to fit into that category, as does Designer Shoe Warehouse.

• Two food and beverage retailers totaling 22,300 square feet. This one will be an interesting category to keep an eye on. Organic grocers have been a hot addition to the Lawrence market, but the square footage seems small for another specialty grocery store, like a Whole Foods or one of its competitors.

• Two general merchandise stores totaling 17,500 square feet. At one point there had been at least some interest from Sam’s Club in the site. But at 17,500 square feet, that’s not enough space to even contain Sam’s wallet. We’re obviously talking about smaller general retailers at this point.

• Two office or medical-oriented businesses totaling 4,900 square feet.

• One health and personal care retailer totaling 1,900 square feet.

• The development group is highlighting that one of the stores is an existing Lawrence store that is looking to move to a new location. I don’t have any word on who that is. I can tell you there certainly has been speculation in the Lawrence retail community that Hobby Lobby is looking for a new home. I think the former Discovery Furniture location near 25th and Iowa Street, however, could be a possibility for Hobby Lobby too.

• The development group has prepared a study that estimates the project will generate an extra $1.2 million in sales tax collections for the city of Lawrence alone in 2019 when the development is fully built. This study will create debate in some circles. The study is commissioned by the developers, so that is one factor to consider. Plus, there will be an argument that some of the shopping that occurs at this center will be shopping that would have happened at other retailers in Lawrence, which means the sales tax dollars aren’t really new. There will be a counter argument, however, that the mix of retailers will slow the number of people who leave Lawrence to go shop in Kansas City and elsewhere. There also will be an argument that the center will attract some out-of-town shoppers. No, the center likely won’t cause people from K.C. or Topeka to flock to us. But it might cause shoppers from Ottawa to make the short drive into south Lawrence. What seems most certain is there will be an argument.

• The city staff has done its own study of how the project may impact the local retail market, in particular vacancy rates. The short analysis is that staff did not find anything in the study to cause them to recommend denial of the project. But really, the study shows how flawed the city’s system is at the moment. The foundation of the study is a citywide retail vacancy rate that was compiled in 2012. The study makes no attempt to determine what the actual vacancy rate is in the city today. To be clear, this isn’t the city staff’s fault. I’ve heard the staff tell previous commissions that they don’t having the staffing power to update the vacancy rate each year, but commissioners have never done anything to address the situation. That’s fine. There are competing priorities for limited resources at City Hall. But why require city staff to do the study at all for a project like this, if you are going to use data that changes frequently and is now three years out of date? Try picking stocks this way. Use one quarter’s worth of data from three years ago, and then make your decision based on that. I’ll come visit you in your green van down by the river and we can discuss how it worked out.

• The staff’s study, though does make an important observation about what to expect in the future. “If this project is approved, other approved, yet undeveloped commercial nodes may have to extend their development time frames in order to attract retail tenants, thus potentially underserving these areas of the community,” the report finds.

This is probably the key political point on this project: How much will it delay development in other parts of town? In particular, there is a concern about whether this development will slow development around Rock Chalk Park. There was a definite concern when this south Lawrence site was proposed for development last year. That proposal — which was significantly larger than this one — never won approval, in part, because city leaders were concerned they would be jeopardizing the more than $20 million investment they made in Rock Chalk Park. There appeared to be a lot of political pressure applied from supporters of Rock Chalk Park on city leaders to deny the south Iowa Street project.

It is an interesting and important question. It is reasonable to think that if this south Lawrence project is approved that it will make it more difficult for the already commercially zoned area around Rock Chalk Park to attract major retailers in the near term. But it also is a fair question to ask whether major retailers are going to be attracted to the Rock Chalk Park area without the south Lawrence project. The development has struggled to attract retailers. Thus far there are none out there, despite the area being zoned for commercial uses for years.

Plus, south Lawrence is not the only area Rock Chalk Park has to compete with. If retailers are interested in west Lawrence, there’s the possibility they may want to locate at the new interchange at Bob Billings Parkway and the SLT. Retailers like either being next to other retailers — which is why South Iowa is a hot commodity — or they like being next to lots of homes. There is some new home and apartment construction underway near Rock Chalk Park, but there are legitimate questions about whether the area north of Rock Chalk park will ever develop significantly with residential homes because the area is outside of the Lawrence school district. There are not those questions at Bob Billings and the SLT. I’ve heard several people say the area west of the SLT at Bob Billings is poised for significant residential growth.

I don’t have the answers to all those questions, but they are some of the bigger ones facing the Lawrence City Commission right now. And that’s saying something, because the group has a lot of questions on its plate.

Planning commissioners meet at 6:30 p.m. on Monday at City Hall.

Full Disclosure: A member of the Simons family, which owns the Journal-World and LJWorld.com, previously was part of a group that had an option to purchase the proposed development site. The member is no longer involved with the proposed development.


In other news and notes from around town:

• The new Lawrence Public Library building has won a major award. The publication Library Journal has named the building a Landmark Library as part of its 2015 contest. The library was one of 11 named to the list. The publication looked at 80 libraries that were completed between 2010 and 2014.

The magazine describes landmark libraries as those that “have reimagined services, space, collections, and programming in ways that engage communities and celebrate creativity.”

It looks like the September issue of Library Journal will include a complete profile of the Lawrence Public Library.

If you remember, voters approved an $18 million expansion and renovation of the library at Seventh and Vermont streets, and the new facility opened in July 2014.