If you are a fan of Old Navy, feel free to blow your fog horn and do your best Popeye impersonation. A development that is proposing to bring Old Navy, Academy Sports, Designer Shoe Warehouse and a host of other retailers to south Iowa Street has cleared its first hurdle to approval.

The city’s planning staff is recommending approval of the necessary rezoning requests and other such items needed to build the project at the southeast corner of Iowa Street and the South Lawrence Trafficway. But hold on there, sailor. Before you order a gross of skinny jeans and midriff T’s, remember that a recommendation from the city’s planning staff is kind of like a bitcoin: It is worth something if you can get somebody to take it.

This proposed retail development still must win approval from the Planning Commission, the City Commission, and the Douglas County Commission will even have to vote on a portion of it. So, the project is a long way from a done deal, but developments that receive a negative recommendation from the planning staff have a decidedly uphill battle.

Based on the conversations I’ve heard, it wasn’t a foregone conclusion that this project would receive a positive recommendation from planning staff. It is almost certain that the project is going to receive some opposition at the City Commission level. Commissioner Bob Schumm already has indicated he thinks the proposal would throw the city’s retail market out of geographic balance. That’s a debate that likely will emerge in the coming weeks, but the planning staff did not find the threat of creating a geographic imbalance enough to recommend denial.

Here are some key findings from the planning staff’s reports:

• The project would add 460,000 square feet of new retail space, plus 80,000 square feet of hotel space.

• There are three fairly large areas in town that already have been zoned for retail uses but haven’t really developed yet. The largest is the Mercato area near the Rock Chalk Park sports complex near Sixth and the SLT. The other two are the area near Johnny’s Tavern in North Lawrence, which has been proposed for a riverside type of retail and entertainment area, and the area near Tractor Supply near 23rd and O’Connell.

The report notes if this proposed development is approved, it very well could increase the amount of time that those already-approved areas sit undeveloped. But the planning staff did not find that possibility a good reason to recommend denial.

• The report found the area is suitable for retail development. The city’s comprehensive plan calls for the area to develop with a mix of apartments and commercial development that is of an “auto-oriented” nature. Think either a car lot or even a truck stop. The planning staff’s report said the comprehensive plan does need to be changed to allow this development because the retail uses would be different than the auto-oriented uses envisioned in Horizon 2020. But the report recommends approval, saying that the proposed development would be a natural extension of the south Iowa Street commercial corridor.

• The report did not find a likelihood that the new retail development would substantially increase the retail vacancy rate in the city. The report said it was highly unlikely that the developer would build any part of the project without first having signed leases for the space. The report does note that it is likely up to three existing retailers in town — no names given — will relocate to the site. But the report noted that in recent years vacated store fronts in Lawrence have successfully redeveloped in a reasonable period of time. Think the formers Sears building which now houses Dick’s Sporting Goods, and the former Food-4-Less, which now houses Discovery Furniture.

• Data suggests the city’s retail market is now attracting more spending than it is losing. In 1999, the city had per capita retail spending that was 1 percent below the statewide average. In 2013, it had grown to 7 percent above the statewide average. Developers of the project, however, note that Lawrence still trails several other cities in that regard. Lenexa’s per capita spending is 59 percent above the statewide average, Salina’s 45 percent, Leawood’s 42 percent, Topeka’s, 33 percent, and Manhattan’s 31 percent. The developers also note that Lawrence still well below 2001 totals, when per capita spending was 18 percent above the statewide average. The staff report didn’t weigh in on how Lawrence compares to other communities, but said that the recent improvement in the per capita spending numbers was a sign that the retail market was healthy and could absorb more space.

You can read the full reports here and here.

Activity on the project will start heating up quickly. The Lawrence-Douglas County Planning Commission will hold a hearing on the proposal Monday evening. It could take votes on the necessary rezoning and comprehensive plan amendments needed for the project. If action is taken by the Planning Commission, the item could be before the City Commission in a couple of weeks.

Then, I think it will get pretty interesting. Based on talk I’ve heard, I think there are some conflicted city commissioners on this one. Here are some questions I think commissioners likely are mulling:

• Can they do anything to steer retail development toward northwest Lawrence and the new Rock Chalk Park sports complex? Thus far several retailers have taken a pass on that area — think Menards, Dick’s Sporting Goods and PetSmart. Clearly there are commissioners who want development to go in that direction. They would like to see more retail options in western Lawrence, but retailers have said they like synergy that is created with the south Iowa corridor. But I’ve heard commissioners say they don’t want Lawrence’s retail market to develop like Topeka’s, where most of it is located in one area of town.

• Can the city financially afford to say no? This is an interesting time to bring forward a large project at City Hall. The city is proposing a 1.85 mill property tax increase, and a larger tax increase likely soon will be proposed for a police headquarters building. The developers have estimated the project will add $1.1 million a year to the city’s sales tax coffers by 2017, and the amount will grow to $2.1 million by 2020. Those are numbers put together by the development group, so you can take them for whatever you think they’re worth. The city’s planning staff didn’t try to verify or refute those numbers.

But there’s another set of numbers yet to come. Those will be estimates on how much the development will pay in property taxes. As we reported recently, the developers have said they don’t intend to seek any tax rebates from the city on this project. That means the city not only will get to keep all the sales tax revenue generated by the project, but also all the property tax revenue. The property taxes will be significant. For example, the Walmart at 33rd and Iowa streets paid $390,000 in property taxes in 2013. This proposed development will be newer and will have about three times as much square footage as Walmart.

Will commissioners feel comfortable rejecting this proposal and its tax dollars, and then turning around and asking the public for another tax increase to pay for a police headquarters building?

It looks like it will be a summer of interesting questions and answers at City Hall.