Five potential obstacles in KU’s quest for Big 12 postseason crown

photo by: Nick Krug

Baylor forward Johnathan Motley (5) extends to defend against a shot from Kansas forward Perry Ellis (34) during the first half, Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2016 at Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas.

photo by: Nick Krug

Baylor forward Johnathan Motley (5) extends to defend against a shot from Kansas forward Perry Ellis (34) during the first half, Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2016 at Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas.

It’s difficult enough to win three college basketball games in three days. Beating three different Big 12 teams in three days? Now that’s a superb accomplishment — even if you’re the No. 1-ranked team in the nation.

The Jayhawks (27-4) are in Kansas City, Mo., this week trying to add to their already striking résumé by winning the 2016 Big 12 Tournament. They last left Sprint Center as tourney champions in 2013. Each of the past two seasons, Iowa State took home the title, defeating KU in the 2014 semifinals and 2015 championship game.

Even with those losses, 13th-year Kansas coach Bill Self has a 24-6 record in Big 12 Tournament games. When the conference postseason wars are played at Sprint Center, Self’s record is even better: 16-3.

Self, who has led Kansas to 6 postseason Big 12 championships, knows nothing about this weekend will be easy for the Jayhawks, even if they won the regular-season title by two games and haven’t lost since Jan. 25, at Iowa State.

“I think it’s got to be — and I’ve
heard other people say it — it’s got
to be as good a postseason conference
tournament as there is in the
country,” Self said earlier this week.
“I think the competitive nature of it,
everybody wants to show that they are
the best. I think that drives it.”

With all of that in mind, here are five potential obstacles the Jayhawks might have to overcome in the days ahead in order to extend their 11-game winning streak to 14 and add another trophy to the program’s many cases.

More poor free-throw shooting

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas guard Frank Mason III (0) hits the second of two free throws with 8.6 seconds remaining in the third overtime, Monday, Jan. 4, 2016 at Allen Fieldhouse.

Entering the postseason, the Jayhawks haven’t been great at the free-throw line. They’re hitting 70% on the year — which ranks 6th in the Big 12 and 163rd in the nation.

Even more troubling, Kansas has shot below 70% in four of its last five games:

– 18 of 30 at Kansas State: 60%

– 12 of 17 at Baylor: 70.6%

– 10 of 15 vs. Texas Tech: 66.7%

– 11 of 24 at Texas: 45.8%

– 9 of 15 vs. Iowa State: 60%

Now that it’s the postseason, Self said missing free throws could be disastrous.

“But we’ve got to make them. You know
what, we’ve been a good free-throw
shooting team when it counted,” Self
said. “We haven’t been a very good
free-throw shooting it seems like to
me when it didn’t count, so maybe
that’s a positive sign. But certainly
that could bite us. You don’t make
free throws in the postseason, the
chances of you advancing against a
comparable team is not very good.”

So who are KU’s best free-throw shooters when it count? Here are the individual numbers for free throws taken in the last 5 minutes of a game or overtime (as a team, KU shoots 70.3% in those situations, and opponents have made 74.1%):

Brannen Greene: 9/11, 90%

Devonté Graham: 20/24, 83.3%

Perry Ellis: 14/17, 82.4%

Frank Mason III: 40/54, 74.1%

Svi Mykhailiuk: 5/7, 71.4%

Cheick Diallo: 7/10, 70%

Landen Lucas: 11/18, 61.1%

Wayne Selden Jr.: 15/25, 60%

Jamari Traylor: 3/6, 50%

Hunter Mickelson: 1/3, 33.3%

Carlton Bragg: 0/0

In each of KU’s 4 losses this season, the opposition had a better shooting night at the free-throw line.

Opponents pounding the offensive glass

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas forward Cheick Diallo (13) fights for a rebound with Iowa State forward Jameel McKay (1) during the first half on Saturday, March 5, 2016 at Allen Fieldhouse.

The Jayhawks have finished with fewer offensive rebounds than their opponent in 6 of their last 10 games. During that same stretch KU got out-scored in second-chance points five times and won the margin by 1 on 2 occasions.

In 9 of KU’s 18 Big 12 games, they lost second-chance points. Sometimes, KU’s first-shot defense leads to those opportunities (see: Texas missed 44 field goals, shot 30.2% and gathered 18 offensive rebounds, leading to 13 second-chance points). But it’s still an area of concern, because second-chance attempts often come from point-blank range, meaning easy points.

In Norman, Okla., the Sooners scored 22 second-chance points on 15 offensive rebounds. Looking at KU’s last five games, four opponents scored double digits via offensive rebounds: K-State (12), Baylor (14), Texas Tech (14) and Iowa State (13).

Beware of Shaka

Texas head coach Shaka Smart, right, celebrates with Ryan McClurg, left, and Javan Felix, center, and Cameron Ridley, center rear, after beating North Carolina in an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, Dec. 12, 2015, in Austin, Texas. Texas won 84-82. (AP Photo/Michael Thomas)

Now, there is no guarantee that Kansas will run into Texas in the Big 12 semifinals. Obviously, both KU (versus K-State) and UT (versus Baylor) will have to handle their business to make that happen. But the past success of first-year Longhorns coach Shaka Smart makes one think a UT-KU meeting will start things off Friday night at Sprint. And that Self’s Jayhawks shouldn’t take the ‘Horns lightly — despite a regular-season sweep.

In his six seasons at VCU, Smart’s Rams won two conference tournament titles (Colonial Athletic Association Tournament in 2012, and Atlantic-10 Tournament in 2015) and posted a 15-4 record.

What’s more, VCU won at least two games at every conference tournament in Smart’s time there.

2010 (CAA) 2-1

2011 (CAA) 2-1

2012 (CAA) 3-0

2013 (A-10) 2-1

2014 (A-10) 2-1

2015 (A-10) 4-0

Smart has a way of getting the best out of his players in March. And there is a chance massive, 6-foot-10 center Cameron Ridley will be back for the Longhorns this weekend.

Sure, KU blew out Texas a little more than a week ago. But they call it March Madness for a reason. Sometimes the unthinkable plays out right in front of your eyes.

An off night for Devonté Graham

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas guard Devonte' Graham (4) pulls up for a three against Oklahoma State guard Tyree Griffin (2) during the second half, Monday, Feb. 15, 2016 at Allen Fieldhouse.

The youngest member of KU’s starting five, sophomore Devonté Graham has emerged as a reliable scorer (11.2 points per game, 45.9% shooting) and the Jayhawks’ best high-volume 3-point marksman.

The 6-foot-2 guard from Raleigh, N.C., has made 43.7% of his 135 attempts from beyond the arc (second to Wayne Selden Jr.’s 156 tries). While Perry Elis (45.6% on 57 attempts) and Brannen Greene (51.7% on 58 shots from downtown) are better percentage-wise, Graham has been more productive.

KU has enough depth and talent that an off night from one player shouldn’t mean doom for the team, but Graham has been below his normal production in the Jayhawks’ four losses this season.

– vs. Michigan State: 4 points, 1/9 FGs, 0/4 3s, 2/2 FTs

– at West Virginia: 7 points, 2/7 FGs, 2/3 3s, 1/4 FTs

– at Oklahoma State: 10 points, 4/9 FGs, 1/4 3s, 1/1 FTs

– at Iowa State: 7 points, 3/7 FGs, 1/3 3s, 0/0 FTs

A below-average outing from Graham doesn’t automatically mean a KU loss. He had three single-digit point totals in February, and Kansas still won every game last month.

It’s just Graham seems to have an infectious energy that propels Kansas when he is playing well. If he goes cold in a game and other problems pop up for KU, that could mean trouble.

Can KU respond to adversity?

photo by: Nick Krug

Iowa State guard Monte Morris (11) gets to the bucket against Kansas guard Wayne Selden Jr. (1) during the first half, Monday, Jan. 25, 2016 at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa.

KU has been on such a roll, what happens if an opponent gets hot and the Jayhawks find themselves down by double digits?

That hasn’t happened to Kansas since Jan. 25, at Iowa State. That’s a long time to go without playing from behind while in legitimate trouble.

Will the players buckle down and get stops? Will pride take over and validate just how good KU is?

Or will the physical and mental grind of the regular season finally catch up with the players in such a scenario? In the back of their minds, they know a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament already is essentially wrapped up. Will they have the fire to exert extra energy with a big comeback if it doing so doesn’t have an impact on where they stand entering the Big Dance? Maybe we find out. Maybe we don’t.

For what it’s worth, KU has a pair of neutral-floor recoveries on its schedule this season. Kansas came back from a 14-point deficit to beat Oregon State at Sprint Center in December. Before that, the Jayhawks recovered from a 10-point hole against Vanderbilt to win the Maui Invitational final.