photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas guard Tyshawn Taylor knocks the ball loose from UCLA guard Lazeric Jones during the first half, Thursday, Dec. 2, 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse.

Note: Here is a listing of definitions for some terms used in this blog. Also, feel free to ask questions in the comments section below if something doesn’t make sense.

There will be a lot of talk today about how UCLA deserved to beat Kansas. Heck, even KU coach Bill Self said his team was lucky after the Jayhawks’ 77-76 victory Thursday night.

That’s not telling the entire truth, though.
http://www2.kusports.com/videos/2010/dec/03/33595/

Sure, UCLA played well in a tough environment. KU also had troubles stopping forwards Tyler Honeycutt and Joshua Smith.

But after looking at the stats, the Bruins probably didn’t deserve to win. If anything, it was the Jayhawks that deserved to lose.

We’re all guilty about talking a lot about who will be a team’s go-to guy in the clutch — a player that will rise up when the game is on the line.

And while it doesn’t hurt to have a player like that, the whole concept is a bit overrated. Bad calls happen. Players trip when they shouldn’t. A player gets a cramp at an inopportune time. A poor shot (or a well-contested shot) goes in.

Fluky things happen in close games. Luck and chance plays a much bigger role than we give it credit for.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas guard Tyshawn Taylor knocks the ball loose from UCLA guard Lazeric Jones during the first half, Thursday, Dec. 2, 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse.

There’s not much teams can do to defend against it. That’s why the best way to win a close game is to never let it get close to begin with.

Statistically, KU didn’t play well, but it sure played well enough to not be tied in the final second.

Both teams shot about the same, with KU holding a slight edge in eFG% (55.5 to 53.4). UCLA grabbed two more offensive rebounds, but KU held a more significant edge in turnovers (19-15) and free throws attempted (30-22).

The Jayhawks didn’t play great, but they certainly played well enough to coast to a seven-point victory or so without sweating out the final seconds.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas forward Mario Little and the Jayhawks' bench look for a foul after a last-second attempt by Little for a shot against UCLA during the second half, Thursday, Dec. 2, 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse. A foul was called on UCLA guard Malcolm Lee sending Little to the line in which he hit the game-winning free throw to grab a 77-76 win.

That didn’t happen, though, as KU missed a ton of free throws (the Jayhawks were 16 of 30 for 53 percent) and made poor decisions in the final minutes.

KU led 75-69 with 2:08 left before missing three layups, committing two turnovers, missing a free throw and allowing two layups and a three-pointer defensively in the last 128 seconds.

KU’s late-game play left itself open to chance.

And though the Jayhawks received the break this time on a questionable whistle, they can’t count on that game-changing luck going their way every time in a close-game situation.

M.O.J. (Most Outstanding Jayhawk)

One of the easiest picks of the season. Tyshawn Taylor was spectacular for KU, stepping up offensively right when the Jayhawks needed him in the second half.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas guard Tyshawn Taylor hangs for a shot against UCLA guard Jerime Anderson during the second half, Thursday, Dec. 2, 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse.

The junior guard contributed an impressive 1.25 points per possession used while also using up an above-average 22.3 percent of KU’s possessions. He also was great defensively, grabbing a steal on nearly one out of every 10 UCLA possessions that he was in (9.3 percent).

After missing his first three shots in the opening four minutes, Taylor went 7-for-7 from the floor the rest of the game. The more selective Taylor is shooting 62.5 percent from two-point range this year after making just 47.6 percent of his twos a year ago.

Room for Improvement

When I clicked on the box score, I expected bad defensive numbers from both teams.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas forward Tyrel Reed puts up a three from the top of the key over UCLA guard Malcolm Lee during the first half, Thursday, Dec. 2, 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse.

In reality, the game had a lot of possessions (74), so both teams were barely above the NCAA average in offensive efficiency. KU put up 1.04 points per possession, while UCLA had 1.03 (NCAA average is about 1.0).

Having said that, KU contributed to a pair of Bruins having career games offensively.

Sophomore Tyler Honeycutt posted 33 points — his previous career-high was 18 — while putting up a ridiculous statistical line.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas guard Brady Morningstar extends to defend against a shot by UCLA forward Tyler Honeycutt during the second half, Thursday, Dec. 2, 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse.

He contributed 1.63 points per possession used while consuming 24.1 percent of UCLA’s possessions. Only KU’s Brady Morningstar was able to slow Honeycutt down, and even then, the 6-foot-9 small forward was still able to make some difficult shots.

Perhaps more disturbing for KU was Joshua Smith’s effort.

The 305-pounder — who hadn’t played more than 20 minutes or grabbed more than seven rebounds in any game this season — posted 17 points and 13 rebounds in 28 minutes.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas forward Markieff Morris fouls UCLA forward Josh Smith on the shot during the first half, Thursday, Dec. 2, 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse.

KU had no answer for his size, as the 6-foot-10 freshman came away with 33.6 percent of the available offensive rebounds and 20.4 percent of the available defensive rebounds when he was on the court.

That makes two games in a row when KU’s defense hasn’t been able to match up defensively against an opponent’s big man (Arizona’s Derrick Williams was the other).

The Jayhawks’ post defenders aren’t getting good defensive position, so they’re forced to foul later in the possession.

Fouls turn into foul trouble, then KU is forced to a small lineup, where it is hurt even more by the opponent’s dominant big men.

Self is well aware of the problem, and basically challenged his forwards to play better defensively, telling reporters the way to beat the Jayhawks right now is to throw it inside and take it at KU’s big men.

http://www2.kusports.com/videos/2010/dec/03/33593/

http://www2.kusports.com/videos/2010/dec/03/33594/

I’d expect Self to hammer post defense harder this week than he has all season.

Tough-Luck Line

I guess we should expect a dominant effort by Thomas Robinson against Memphis on Tuesday.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas forward Thomas Robinson fights for a rebound with UCLA forward Anthony Stover during the first half, Thursday, Dec. 2, 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse.

The sophomore forward is starting a distinct pattern: good game, bad game, good game, bad game.

Take a look:

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi — 15 points, 7-for-8 shooting, five rebounds, 16 minutes
Ohio — Three points, two turnovers, four fouls (including a technical), nine minutes
Arizona — 14 points, 5-for-7 shooting, three rebounds, 19 minutes
UCLA — Two points, three rebounds, two turnovers, 18 minutes

Robinson’s advanced stats weren’t pretty against UCLA. He posted just 0.56 points per possession, though he limited the damage by only using 15 percent of the possessions when he was in there.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas forward Thomas Robinson works his way in for a shot against UCLA forward Tyler Honeycutt during the second half, Thursday, Dec. 2, 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse.

His rebounding numbers were nearly nonexistent, as he grabbed just 6.3 percent of the available offensive rebounds and 13 percent of the available defensive rebounds.

Robinson also struggled defensively, especially against Smith, and made some weird decisions as well, trying to lead the fast break twice instead of passing to a guard.

More consistency from Robinson could go a long way towards helping KU fix its recent problems in the post.

Bottom Line

No, KU didn’t play well. But the Jayhawks did play well enough statistically to make the game less close than it was.

photo by: Nick Krug

The Fieldhouse watches in anticipation as Kansas forward Mario Little puts up the winning free throw against UCLA with a fraction of a second remaining on the clock during the second half, Thursday, Dec. 2, 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse.

[Ed. Note — What is Marcus doing in the photo above? Is he praying?]

According to KenPom’s win probability graph from the game, KU had about a 93-percent chance to win the game up 75-69 with 2:08 left. From there, the Jayhawks performed poorly enough to turn a near-sure win to a game decided by chance.

With a few more plays in the final two minutes (or a few more made free throws earlier), KU could have taken the luck out of it and felt a little better about winning against an improving UCLA team.