There is indeed a decent chance that we’ll be staring down 60 in about a week. The weather models are showing signs that a plume of moist and relatively mild/warm air will surge across our region, beginning next weekend. I suppose it’s not really going out on a limb because our average high is now about 50 degrees. But when I consider how cold it’s been for so long, it’s hard to believe my eyes. This is really the warmest these models have looked since November.

How can I be sure it’s coming? I’m not. Never am. Even forecasts for tomorrow’s weather pose their own challenges and uncertainties. So why should I even look at a forecast one week away? I’m not. I’m looking at a lot of them, and not just from one model. While Mother Nature’s governing dynamics tell us that using these models for a weather forecast more than a week out is very risky even in this multi-faceted way, there may be some pieces to the puzzle that can be used to assemble a reasonably plausible scenario at these medium-range lead times. I’ll discuss why this is true in an upcoming blog.

In our current case, carefully playing this forecast game with recent multi-model and multi-run guidance just might give us our first real taste of Spring late next weekend or early the following week. To lend further credence to this potential outcome, some of the mechanisms of the tropical atmosphere that capably nudge our week-to-week “climate” are organizing in a way that is consistent with the anticipated change. Bottom line is … I like our chances.