Much of our severe weather risk later today depends on how far north this warm front moves. Present indications are that it will lie roughly along a line from the KS/NE border northeastward across southern Iowa by evening. Zonally-oriented frontal zones like this one (i.e., those that lie roughly east to west) are often highly capable of organizing severe weather ingredients. In our case, wind shear will be sufficiently strong to support severe storms near and along this corridor, and the low-level air will be plenty warm and humid across the warm sector south of the frontal boundary. I imagine it won’t take much for our temperatures to surge into the 80s late Monday, assuming that warm front pushes to our north.

All of that said, if the warm front rapidly surges northward during the day today, say north of I80, I believe our chances for severe storms will be reduced, owing to our (large) distance from one of the main focusing agents. In addition, the airmass in the warm sector may also possess a temperature structure aloft that would require our surface temperatures to reach levels much higher than currently projected. As of now, SPC has placed a “Slight Risk” for our area today.

National Weather Service 1-day outlook

And lastly, as it looks right now, another strong cold front will cross our area late Tuesday. It wouldn’t surprise me if the predominant mode of the convection associated with this final act (assuming we get storms) largely produces high winds and hail.

SPC has placed a “Slight Risk” for our region on Tuesday.

National Weather Service 2-day outlook