Rep. Connie O'Brien, 42nd District

TOPEKA — The 42nd House District, which includes part of eastern Douglas County, may be as good a place as any to watch for signs that a more moderate, pro-public education wing of the Kansas Republican Party will make a resurgence this year.

That’s where Rep. Connie O’Brien, of Tonganoxie, who has been a loyal, conservative ally of Gov. Sam Brownback, is facing a stiff challenge from Jim Karleskint, a former school superintendent.

Karleskint is one of about 50 or so current or former public school teachers, administrators and school board members who are running this year against conservatives who are seen as part of Brownback’s governing coalition.

O’Brien’s campaign finance report wasn’t yet posted on the Kansas Governmental Ethics Commission website when the Journal-World first reported on those numbers Monday. But it became available early Tuesday, and the report shows Karleskint has raised more ($6,475 to $4,970) and spent more ($4,421 to $2,818) than O’Brien so far in the primary campaign.

Rep. Connie O'Brien, 42nd District

Of course, campaign finance numbers don’t tell the whole story. In fact, many veteran politicians will tell you that the average Kansas House district is small enough that most elections are won and lost on voters’ front doorsteps.

Also important is voter turnout and which side can actually motivate its supporters to show up and vote on Election Day. In recent election cycles, conservative Republicans have been much more effective than moderates at doing that.

But finance reports do give some indication about how broad of a support network a candidate is able to build.

Karleskint’s report, for example, shows a large chunk of his support coming from fellow-educators and the Kansas National Education Association, the state’s largest teachers union.

Jim Karleskint, candidate, 42nd District

O’Brien’s report, by contrast, shows she received about 60 percent of her contributions from a standard list of regular Statehouse lobby groups such as the Kansas Livestock Association, Kansas Realtors Association and the Kansas Chamber.

The 42nd District is a good place to take the temperature of the Brownback coalition because he carried that district by five percentage points over Democrat Paul Davis in 2014, and Mitt Romney took 60 percent of the vote there in the 2012 presidential race..

Although it reaches into the city of Leavenworth, it’s a mostly rural district that leans conservative. Republicans account for 40 percent of registered voters there, followed by unaffiliated voters at 34 percent, and Democrats at just 24 percent.

Whoever wins the GOP primary will go on to face Democrat Kara Reed, a Tonganoxie city councilwoman.

Recent public opinion polls show Brownback’s approval ratings have plummeted on a statewide level. But a loss for a Brownback ally in the 42nd District could indicate that both he and the governing coalition he has built in the Legislature are in trouble.

Conversely, if O’Brien survives the challenge, that would be another bad omen for moderate Republicans whom Brownback all but purged out of the Kansas Senate in 2012.

There are several other races around the state where pro-public education groups are trying to unseat incumbent conservatives. Among those are two Senate districts in Johnson County: the 11th District, where John Skubal, an Overland Park city councilman, is trying to unseat Sen. Jeff Melcher; and the 21st District, where Dinah Sykes is trying to unseat Sen. Greg Smith.

But a few moderate Republicans in the Legislature are facing some stiff challenges of their own, including Sen. Carolyn McGinn, of Wichita, who is being challenged from the right by Renee Erickson, and Sen. Vicki Schmidt, of Topeka, who faces a tough challenge again this year from former Rep. Joe Patton, whom Schmidt barely defeated in a 2012 primary.