Lawrence should escape the heaviest snowfall forecast to move Tuesday afternoon and evening through northeast Kansas, latest U.S. National Weather Service models predict.

Chris Bowman, meteorologist for the National Weather Service office in Pleasant Hill, Mo., said Lawrence was just south of the area expected to receive from 2 to 4 inches of snow. It should get less than 2 inches, but he said winter systems can surprise.

“This system has been a challenging one to forecast,” he said. “In earlier models, it looked like we could see the heaviest snow along the Interstate 70 corridor, but it looks to have shifted farther north.”

Lawrence residents should be prepared for 2 inches of snow, Bowman said. The snow should start about noon and persist through 6 to 9 p.m., he said. With afternoon high temperatures in the lower 20s, the snow that does fall will accumulate, he said.

Earlier forecast models warned of possible freezing rain or drizzle on the tail end of the storm. Bowman said that “didn’t look like a big issue” in current models.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny with a high near freezing, and it should warm to the mid- to upper-40s on Thursday, Bowman said. Highs Friday will be in the upper-30s before another winter system moves through Friday night, bringing another chance of snow late Friday and early Sunday. Bowman said the heaviest snows now are forecast to again fall north of Lawrence in southern Nebraska, but it was too early to forecast how much snow would fall in northeast Kansas.