Though it’s ultimately up to winter weather, normal to mild forecasts combined with an adequate supply of natural gas mean Lawrence residents could see natural gas bills that are lower than last winter, Black Hills Energy representatives indicated Wednesday.

During a luncheon with city officials, Monique Pope, manager of external affairs for Black Hills Energy — the largest natural gas provider in Lawrence — said the company has “an overabundant supply of natural gas heading into the winter season.”

The gas is also cheaper.

The New York Mercantile Exchange forecasts natural gas prices to be about 11 percent lower than last winter. Pope presented data showing commodity prices in the midcontinent region were about $3.74 per Dth (dekatherm) last winter, and they’re forecasted to be $2.86 per Dth this winter.

Estimated prices for consumers were not discussed.

“Forecasted prices for the 2015-2016 winter season are significantly lower than last year,” Pope said. “So, that’s encouraging for customers.”

Pope said a downward trend in natural gas prices is the result of both steady production levels and demand.

Last year, Black Hills Energy leaders told city officials there would be a slight increase in natural gas prices as natural gas supplies nationwide were still trying to catch up from heavy usage in the cold 2013 winter season.

National storage levels by Sept. 4 of this year were 17 percent above last year and 4 percent above the five-year average, according to data presented Wednesday.

Black Hills Energy uses winter weather forecasts from resources such as the Farmer’s Almanac, AccuWeather and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in deciding the supply of natural gas it purchases to get through the winter season.

The Farmer’s Almanac predicts the central U.S. will see “near-normal winter temperatures,” while AccuWeather forecasts occasional mild days for the area.

“Again, we always provide the disclaimer that long-range forecasts are not reliable — they’re based on the best valuable information at the time of the forecast,” Pope said. “A caveat is, we can never predict that there’s going to be a cold spike, which obviously happens, and usage goes up. Prices and volatility are subject to that.”

Black Hills Energy representatives also told city officials about the company’s recent acquisition of SourceGas, which brings in about 425,000 customers in five states.

Pope said that the efficiencies gained by becoming a larger organization would help “minimize future rate increases.”

Quonset hut

Chuck Hoag, Lawrence operation manager with Black Hills Energy, gave a brief update on the company’s old Quonset hut in East Lawrence.

The Journal-World reported in April that the city’s Historic Resources Commission voted against a plan that would allow Black Hills Energy to demolish the building.

Hoag said the building is currently being used for storage and as a compressed natural gas fueling station.

Black Hills Energy decided it would not appeal the commission’s vote, he said.

“At one point we were going to appeal that, and we just thought through the process and thought at this point in time it was best just to hang onto it and utilize it as we had been,” Hoag said.

There’s been interest from Lawrence residents about using the hut. Hoag said Black Hills Energy is “always open to what people have to say about other uses for the property.”