New York ? Bye bye endless varieties of men’s shoes in black. So long, five-pocket jeans in five different colors.

Financial trouble at companies that make clothes, toys and items for the home will likely translate into fewer choices for shoppers, who may have a hard time finding the brands they like or see the same colors and styles repeatedly as stores take fewer risks.

Fall collections of nothing but black, forest green and dark purple? It’s not that far-fetched, according to the fashion cognoscenti.

“It feels like a self-fulfilling prophesy,” said Josh Green, CEO of Panjiva, which tracks shipments by global suppliers to the United States based on U.S. Customs data.

Companies concerned about the future are cutting back their shipments, which is having a big impact on the supply chain, he said, leaving stores struggling to figure out which vendors are stable and which are not.

Suppliers that survive will focus on their main items and are not going to take chances on “unproven products,” Green said. “It is very hard to innovate when you are scrambling for survival.”

Companies like apparel makers Liz Claiborne and Phillips-Van Heusen are doing everything from cutting jobs and closing distribution centers to trying to arrange more financing as the dramatic drop in consumer spending leads stores to order less. Toy maker Mattel Inc., which posted a 49 percent drop in fourth-quarter profit, said its focus this year will be “cost and spending reductions.” It added that it’s cutting back on underperforming products. Whether that means fewer choices with Barbie or Hot Wheels isn’t clear yet.

Anxieties are running high ahead of January sales figures, due Thursday, that are expected to show an even deeper decline from December. Experts expect the economic tailspin to accelerate as consumers and businesses dig deeper into survival mode.

The caution can already be seen in the lean assortment of spring items in stores like Banana Republic and AnnTaylor, which have empty space in areas once teeming with tables of merchandise.

How else will the pullback appear? In toys, shoppers will likely see fewer types of train sets and fewer new toy launches, according to Chris Byrne, an industry consultant. Shoppers looking for lightweight sweaters will probably not have a huge selection of necklines. And what about that oddball color? Shoppers are going to have to look harder.

“How many different brands of men’s black shoes do we need?” is one example of the questions Macy’s is asking itself, Chief Executive Terry J. Lundgren told the The Associated Press this week after the chain announced it was cutting 7,000 jobs. “We have to do a better job in turning our inventory,” he added.

Besides cutting back on merchandise, stores are also waiting longer to place their orders, pressing suppliers well beyond normal deadlines. While deadlines vary, retail strategist Amy Klaris at consulting firm Kurt Salmon Associates estimates that merchants are now ordering goods from three to six months ahead instead of four to seven months. This could put some manufacturers out of business in the meantime or leave them to guess what might be popular.

Green said of the firms he tracks, the number of global suppliers shipping to the U.S. dropped 13 percent to 156,000 in December compared with October 2007. Of those, 12 percent had a 50 percent drop or more in volume during the October through December period from a year earlier, he said.

At the same time, Green says factories are going to be in extreme trouble amid the global recession. Mattel’s Chairman and CEO Robert A. Eckert said Monday he was concerned by a rash of bankrupt toy factories in China.

Overall, the most vulnerable manufacturers, analysts say, are smaller companies that are having a harder time than their larger competitors in getting financing. They also can’t meet the increasing demands from major chains: lower prices and faster production.