Washington ? Judging from the lobbying lineup, legislation to bail out the auto industry should be assured of passage.

But it isn’t, a case of conventional wisdom seemingly turned on its head as one administration gives way to another and an expiring Congress limps toward the exits.

On one side: General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC, the United Autoworkers, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation’s car dealers and auto suppliers. Competing interests in so many battles of the past – all now are pleading with Congress to act.

“A partial or total failure of a major auto manufacturer would generate a massive economic ripple effect across the entire economy,” Ford dealers wrote members of Congress recently as they launched an appeal to Democrats and Republicans alike.

“If Chrysler quits sending me cars, I have to close my doors,” Jim Arrigo, owner of a dealership in West Palm Beach, Fla., said Monday before he set off on a lobbying expedition of his own.

On the other side: Nary a special interest has stepped forward. Not a single one of the well-connected lobbyists so prominent in Washington legend, so far as anyone can discern or will acknowledge.

Not Toyota. Not Honda, whose spokesman, Ed Cohen, says that a healthy Detroit “would help sustain the supplier base” that feeds all manufacturers.

Not the Association of International Automobile Manufacturers, whose president, Mike Stanton, says merely that whatever lawmakers do for the domestic companies, they should take care not to disadvantage the foreign competition.

With Congress on the cusp of a battle over a bailout, this looks like one issue that is beyond lobbying.

The customary pressure points – fear of political repercussions – may not exist.

Congressional Democrats are drafting legislation to approve loans for the Big Three automakers as well as industry suppliers, making use of some of the $700 billion that was part of a bailout intended for the financial industry.

The White House and many congressional Republicans are opposed. Some lawmakers argue the automakers should be allowed to go bankrupt. The administration and others advance an alternative that would allow the use of a different $25 billion, money already approved to help the industry update its factories to produce cars that would be more environmentally friendly and attractive to buyers.

“Democrats are choosing a path that would only lead to partisan gridlock,” says White House press secretary Dana Perino.

For now, Republicans have the upper hand. Democrats may be able to push legislation through the House, but the Senate is narrowly divided along party lines, and overcoming a threatened filibuster by Republicans is a major challenge.

Even if Democrats get their bill to the White House, President George W. Bush could veto it, and there is virtually no chance that Congress could override him.

The calculus will be different on Jan. 20, when President-elect Barack Obama takes office and begins working with a Congress that has more Democrats than the current one.

But can the auto makers survive that long?

That’s the point of attack for the lobbyists, professional and otherwise.

Congressional aides said Monday that in private conversations, auto executives are warning of the literal disappearance of a storied industry, that carmakers going into bankruptcy would not be able to emerge leaner like airlines but would be forced liquidate, and large numbers of jobs would be lost.

Publicly, GM has said Chapter 11 bankruptcy – under which the automaker would continue to operate while holding its creditors at bay and overhauling its finances – is not an option because that would scare away customers who would fear that warranties would be worthless.

Suppliers – who provide everything from steel to spark plugs – say they have a particularly strong presence in Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, South Carolina and Tennessee, and employ 4.5 million workers nationwide.

Whether these warnings are classic lobbying techniques or simply sober predictions of the effects of a congressional failure to act, the industry lobbies on, unopposed by competing special interests.

Arrigo was one of about 30 Chrysler dealers who spent time knocking on the doors of congressional offices during the day, warning of the consequences of a failure to act.

“This is the most dire situation I’ve ever seen in the car business in my life,” he said as he set out.