Fourth-graders huddle around a desk to read in Martha Wenzel's class Wednesday at Sunflower School. Wenzel said her class at 25 students is four students more than what is considered average. For Lawrence district schools, enrollment projections made in January are on track.

Enrollment numbers at Lawrence public schools may be up, but they’re not yet an indicator of how much funding the district will receive from the state.

Official enrollment numbers are due to Topeka on Sept. 20, and there’s a good chance that student numbers will fluctuate between now and then.

What they can do, however, is give district administrators a method of gauging staffing needs.

The district retained Olathe-based RSP & Associates to project enrollment, and Rob Schwarz, the company’s principal planner, said data, using demographic and economic numbers, determines the projections.

“We know where the students are, and we’re able to accurately forecast where they’re going to be,” he said.

This allows the district to allocate resources as needed.

“You make your best guess at first, based on the projections. Things are very dynamic,” said David Cunningham, one of the district’s human resources directors.

Projection process

Cunningham begins by surveying the data provided by RSP & Associates. From there he can deploy the 11 full-time teachers the district has available to move to schools that have a need.

Cunningham said the district receives initial projections in January, and the numbers evolve through the spring and summer months, as families move to and leave Lawrence. Better figures are available after the July 30 enrollment.

“We take that information then, and we listen to the principals, in terms of some of the things they’re expecting. We look at projections and try to determine, the best we can, some of the baseline staffing we can expect,” he said.

Last-minute hires

The school district hired four teachers within days of the start of class to accommodate higher-than-expected numbers at Quail Run, Langston Hughes, Schwegler and Kennedy schools.

“As we look at class sizes, we’ve been able to maintain excellent class sizes throughout the district,” Cunningham said. The district likes to keep kindergarten through third grade student-teacher ratios at a 17-to-one rate; in upper grades, an ideal ratio is 24-to-one.

He said staffing levels throughout the district are consistent with the enrollment projections, but some tinkering may be necessary.

‘Tense situation’

Joni Appleman, Deerfield principal, said adding teachers during the school year is not ideal, but it’s smart to have that option.

“The way it affects us is we look at our enrollment on the first day of school, and (if) we see our classes are too big, we add another teacher,” she said.

“Kids are resilient, teachers are competent and they get right in there and get the job done,” she said. “It’s a testament of how well these teachers are prepared and make it happen no matter what it takes.”

At Prairie Park School, Principal David Williams is keeping his eye on the two sections of fourth grade. One section has 28 students, while the other has 27. That’s higher than the ratio mandated by the district, but he’s not panicking yet because the numbers are likely to change from one day to the next.

Though fewer students are at the school than last year, Williams still added a special education teacher two days after school started.

“You know it’s a tense situation as an administrator. You know it’s a tense situation for parents,” he said, of adding a new teacher as students are settling in.

But he said the district and principals work hard to ensure the new teachers are up to the task.

“You’re looking for the best person to come in who is not only going to be a great teacher for the kids, but also someone who can deal with some of the anxiety of the parents,” Williams said. “Any teacher you hire at this point knows that they have to do an incredible job because they are having to prove themselves.”