Yahoo financial results could sweeten deal

? Wall Street will tune in to the Internet version of “Let’s Make a Deal” today as Yahoo Inc. attempts to wrest a higher price from Microsoft Corp.

In the studio audience will be a cast of thousands: shareholders, employees, analysts and media, all ready for Yahoo to reveal its first-quarter financial results.

Analysts say the numbers, if good enough, represent Yahoo’s best shot to gain some leverage in negotiations with Microsoft ahead of its Saturday deadline to accept the software company’s nearly $43-billion takeover offer.

Microsoft has vowed to launch a proxy fight and possibly lower its offer if Yahoo doesn’t agree to a deal.

Yahoo has argued that it’s worth more than the $31 a share in cash and stock that Microsoft offered (the stock portion has dropped with Microsoft’s shares). The Sunnyvale, Calif., Internet company has shown off rosy forecasts for its prospects and engaged in talks with Time Warner Inc.’s AOL unit and Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp.

Yahoo also has hinted that it’s closing on a deal to outsource some of its search business to Google Inc., which posted better-than-expected first-quarter results last week.

Although Wall Street clearly believes that Google’s market-buoying performance indicates that the online advertising sector has remained strong despite a weakening economy, it might not provide a good indication of how Yahoo has fared. Google’s dominance in search advertising, which gives advertisers more measurable returns, is generally thought to hold up better in an economic downturn. Far more uncertainty shrouds the display advertising market.

Yahoo has forecast first-quarter revenue of $1.28 billion to $1.38 billion. Wall Street expects a profit of 9 cents a share, not including special items, on revenue of $1.32 billion, according to Thomson Financial.

“We expect that Yahoo pulled all the stops out,” Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Jeffrey Lindsay said. “It’s enormously in their interests, whether they get sold or stay independent, to have been cranking out the sales force to the maximum extent and driving the business hard. If they have done that, all the credit to them. Either way, they will have a better chance of improving Microsoft’s bid or having a shot at staying independent.”

UBS analyst Benjamin Schachter says the forecast’s wide range and Yahoo management’s lackluster track record make it difficult to “give them the benefit of the doubt for much of an upside surprise.”