Patti O'Connor of Cambridge, Mass., pumps gas at a Mobil gas station in Cambridge. Analysts say average U.S. gasoline prices are not expected to rise to the -a-gallon psychological threshold this summer - a good sign as well for the broader economy.

Elementary school principal Randy Busscher, of Holland, Mich., is braced for gasoline prices of $3 a gallon or more by summer break.

Analysts say Busscher and other U.S. motorists may be more worried than necessary, however. Absent a major Gulf Coast hurricane, unexpected international strife or a wave of refinery woes, average U.S. gasoline prices are not expected to rise to the $3-a-gallon psychological threshold this summer – a good sign as well for the broader economy, which is under pressure from a weakening housing market.

When energy prices rise, the risk is that consumer spending will fall, particularly at discount stores and low-priced restaurants, whose customers tend to be more sensitive to extra costs in their monthly budgets.

The stock prices of some restaurant chains, including Applebee’s International Inc., Darden Restaurants Inc. and Wendy’s International Inc. dipped in recent weeks as gasoline prices rose. The Dow Jones Index for restaurants and bars is down more than 5 percent for the month, compared with a 4.7 percent decline for the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 index.

Energy analysts say U.S. gasoline supplies should be ample enough this summer to keep prices relatively stable. “We don’t think that oil prices are going to be a drag on the economy this summer,” said Global Insight energy analyst Kevin Lindemer.

Economist Douglas Porter of BMO Capital Markets in Toronto said consumer spending seems more likely to be hurt this summer by the slowdown in the housing market than any nominal increase in energy prices.

Still, the average price for regular unleaded has shot up nearly 40 cents per gallon since late January and Busscher, who drives a fuel-efficient Toyota Camry, is prepared for the worst. Seeing gasoline rise to last summer’s levels, when prices averaged more than $3 a gallon for much of July and August, “would bother me, and I’m sure it would bother others.”

The national average price for regular unleaded on Friday was $2.55 per gallon, up more than 30 cents from a month ago, according to AAA’s daily survey of more than 85,000 self-serve stations.

The Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical agency, projects the average pump price of regular unleaded will hit a peak of about $2.70 per gallon in June, then drop off as the summer driving season wanes. The average price of crude oil is projected to remain about $64 per barrel through summer, down from last year’s record levels of more than $78 per barrel.

Gasoline prices have risen in recent weeks due to planned and unplanned refinery outages, as well as falling imports from Europe, according to the forecasting agency. Those conditions are expected to ease later this spring.

And unlike the start of last summer, when much of the country made a transition to ethanol as a gasoline-blending component, there should be ample supplies of the corn-based fuel this year, said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for Oil Price Information Service.

Other economists disagree.

Wachovia Corp. economists predict gasoline prices this summer will average $2.75 to $3 per gallon – lower than last year, but not by much.

“This year consumers have not only to contend with high gas prices, they’ve got to contend with worries about slowing economic growth,” said Wachovia economist Gina Martin. “The job market is still steady but not running as quickly as it was last year.”