It’s part of the lore of new-car shopping: Don’t buy a just-introduced model. Wait awhile for the manufacturer to “work out the bugs.”

But is it good advice? Results of our annual survey of automotive reliability – the largest of its kind – indicate that, yes, in many cases you’d be wise to hold off.

Every spring, we ask subscribers to Consumer Reports magazine and our Web site, www.ConsumerReports.org, about their experiences with their vehicles during the previous 12 months. They report serious problems they’ve had in any of 15 automotive “trouble spots,” ranging from engine, transmission and brakes to body integrity, paint and electrical system. From their responses (our 2005 survey generated information on more than a million vehicles), we develop reliability profiles of hundreds of cars, vans and trucks extending back as far as eight model years.

Those used-car reliability profiles also enable us to predict how a new car will hold up – provided we have reliability data from the car’s recent model years and the vehicle didn’t change significantly in that time. In some instances, we even can make a favorable prediction about the reliability of new models for which we haven’t sufficient survey data. Such is the case when a redesigned model’s previous incarnations show a sound reliability history, or if a new car’s manufacturer has a “track record” of consistently above-average reliability.

The Honda S2000 made Consumer Reports' list of most reliable convertibles for 2006.

But it’s what our survey says that gives us pause about just-introduced cars. According to the 2005 Annual Car Reliability Survey, models that were redesigned or introduced new in 2005 account for about half of the lowest scorers in our predicted-reliability ratings. Our analysis further found that problem rates (the number of problems per 100 vehicles) dropped an average of 20 percent from the first model year of an introduction to the following year.

Top picks in 2006

Consumer Reports recommends the following models as most reliable for the class of 2006:

¢ Small cars – Toyota Prius, Toyota Corolla and the nonturbo version of the Subaru Impreza.

¢ Sporty cars/convertibles – Honda S2000, Lexus SC430 and Chevrolet Monte Carlo.

¢ Sedans – Lexus GS300/GS430, Infiniti M35/M45 and Honda Accord Hybrid.

¢ SUVs – Lexus RX400h (hybrid), Toyota Highlander and Honda CR-V.

¢ Minivans – Toyota Sienna.

¢ Pickups – Honda Ridgeline and Toyota Tundra.

Of these, the Lexus sedan and SUV, the Infiniti and Honda sedans, and the Honda pickup were all redesigned or introduced new in 2005.