NFL fans watch the draft and think, “How can this guy help my favorite team?”

Fantasy football players watch the draft and think, “How can this guy help MY team.”

Any coach will tell you it’s risky to rely on rookies – and fantasy owners would agree.

Not only do fantasy football players have to project how a player will perform against the toughest competition, but they also have to figure out how the new guy will be used.

So where a player ends up will have almost as much to do with a player’s fantasy value as his talent.

That said, let’s make an early fantasy forecast of some of the top players in today’s draft.

Running backs

Among skill position players, ball carriers generally make the smoothest transition from college to pro ball because there’s less to learn. Running backs can rely on instincts and athleticism more than quarterbacks and receivers.

And when it comes to instincts and athleticism, USC’s Reggie Bush, is in a class by himself among this year’s crop of runners. Still, Bush’s fantasy value is hard to figure.

He’s not likely to be a 20-25 carries per game back. The team that takes him, probably the Texans with the No. 1 pick, will have to get creative to get the most out of Bush’s big-play ability. And it’d be just a waste of his speed and elusiveness to not let him return kicks and punts.

For fantasy leagues that give big points for long TDs and special teams scores, Bush could pay big dividends. But he’s unlikely to be a consistent scorer. One week he might single-handedly put you over the top and the next week he might get shut out.

Deangelo Williams of Memphis and Laurence Maroney of Minnesota are expected to be the next two running backs taken after Bush, both expected to go in the first round.

Williams is short, 5-81â2, but projects to being an every-down back with good receiving skills. One possible problem when it comes to his fantasy value: not being the biggest guy, how will he do around the goal line to pick up those short TD runs.

Maroney might be the best for fantasy players because of where he’ll be drafted. Projected to go in the middle to late first round, he could end up as the No. 1 option on a good team.

LenDale White, Bush’s bulky USC teammate, has seen his draft stock drop. But fantasy players should monitor him closely. As Jerome Bettis proved, a little extra paunch can do wonders inside the opponent’s 5-yard line.

Receivers

Rookie wide receivers usually take a while to develop. Consider the first three receivers taken in last year’s draft, all in the top 10.

Cleveland’s Braylon Edwards missed much of the season with injuries, though he showed some signs of good things to come with 32 catches for 512 yards and three TDs. Minnesota’s Troy Williamson had 24 catches for 372 yards and two scores. Detroit’s Mike Williams had 29 catches for 350 yards and one touchdown.

And this year’s group doesn’t have any prospects as good as those, so don’t expect too much from even the first-rounders.

Ohio State’s Santonio Holmes, Florida’s Chad Johnson and Miami’s Sinorice Moss are the top-rated guys.

The pass catcher most likely to succeed from this year’s draft is Maryland tight end Vernon Davis. Some see the next Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez – his size is more like Gonzalez’s. Davis could end up that good, but out of the box fantasy owners should expect him to be closer to Dallas’ Jason Witten.

This looks like a good draft for tight ends, with Marcedes Lewis of UCLA, Leonard Pope of Georgia, Anthony Fasano of Notre Dame and a few others giving fantasy owners hope for a deeper talent pool at the most shallow position.

Quarterbacks

All rookie quarterbacks come with a buyer beware sign in fantasy football. Rarely do inexperienced passers put up big numbers. Even Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger, who went undefeated in the regular season as a rookie, wasn’t a great fantasy player because he didn’t throw often enough to put up the big numbers.

In this year’s draft, there are three quarterbacks projected to go early in the first round – and five times that many opinions on how they’ll do in the pros.

USC’s Matt Leinart appears to be the most pro-ready and could be a starter somewhere at some point next season.

Vince Young of Texas has the most tantalizing talent, with all that mobility, speed, size and a strong arm. But he’s coming from a shotgun, option offense that is nothing like what he’ll be running in the NFL – no matter where he ends up. If Young does get in the lineup as a rookie, he’ll probably be more dangerous as a runner than a passer, which isn’t a terrible thing in fantasy football, where TD runs usually are worth double what TD passes are worth.

Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler is somewhere in between Leinart and Young. Not as polished as Leinart, but not as athletically gifted as Young. Conversely, he’s probably got a better arm.