Emerging highs and lows of Katrina

Hurricane Katrina’s economic toll continues to mount – its cost evident in near-record energy prices, snarled shipping traffic, lost jobs and wrecked businesses. But nearly two weeks after landfall, its impact is shaping up as one of extremes.

There are many losers, most notably the 400,000 who have lost their jobs, many of whom also are homeless. But, as businesses rush in to claim their role in rebuilding and the commerce that once belonged to the Gulf region shifts elsewhere, there also are economic beneficiaries.

“The relief money is coming in much faster than it has for any other natural disaster that I can remember. That should help minimize some of the hit on consumer spending,” said Mark Vitner, an economist with Wachovia Corp. But “corporate profits are going to come under pressure as (businesses) pay more for raw materials and energy, yet are unable to pass along these higher costs to consumers,” he said.

Estimated costs

The hurricane caused at least $125 billion in economic damage and could cost the insurance industry up to $60 billion in claims, Risk Management Solutions of Newark, Calif., said in an updated estimate on Friday. That’s significantly higher than the previous record-setting storm, Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which caused nearly $21 billion in insured losses in today’s dollars.

Employees work Friday in the wreckage caused by Hurricane Katrina to a casino in Gulfport, Miss. As of Friday, the hurricane had caused an estimated 25 billion in economic damage.

Airlines plagued by high jet-fuel prices are on the brink of bankruptcy and the industry is now seeking $600 million in tax relief from Washington. Consumers in many regions are still paying more than $3 a gallon for gasoline and home heating costs are expected to soar this winter. Contractors around the country are paying more for lumber and cement as building materials are diverted to Louisiana and Mississippi.

The extra energy tab to U.S. consumers could reach $140 billion during the next year, according to economist Keith Hembre at U.S. Bancorp Asset Management. “The historical pattern is for shocks of this nature to initially be absorbed roughly equally between lower savings and lower purchases for other goods and services,” Hembre said.

The storm is expected to lop off from 0.5 to 1 percentage point from U.S. gross domestic product in the second half of 2005 and about half that amount in 2006. In Europe and Asia, financial leaders warn that surging energy prices could stunt growth.

Positive effects

Yet, hotels outside the regions damaged by Katrina are benefiting as business conventions are relocated. Steel makers expect a short-term lift from the massive reconstruction. And oil and gas producers – in spite of damage to rigs and refineries – are reaping huge sums.

Camilo Munoz, an employee with Allied Aviation Fueling Co. of Houston, replaces a hose after fueling a Continental Airlines' Boeing 777 plane bound for Tokyo at George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston. With jet fuel prices soaring in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, U.S. airlines have asked Congress and the White House for 00 million in tax relief.

Thanks to Congress’ quick approval of $62.3 billion in federal disaster aid, economists say the immediate financial consequences may not be as dire as originally feared – though, longer term, they worry about the dent Katrina will leave on the federal budget.

Executives at Marriott International said in a conference call on Wednesday that conventions and meetings are being relocated from New Orleans to Washington, Chicago and New York. Moreover, once basic services are restored to New Orleans, the company anticipates demand from insurance adjustors and federal relief workers.

“From a financial perspective, it is a positive, as unfortunate as the tragedy is,” said Robert McCarty, the company’s executive vice president.

The trucking industry has had a similar bump in demand tied to Katrina. Schneider National of Green Bay, Wis., saw its truckloads increase by 13 percent last week and the Federal Emergency Management Agency in some cases paid for roundtrips to quickly get supplies to the Gulf Coast.

That said, the rapid increase in diesel prices has put smaller trucking companies out of business and has hurt the industry’s overall profit margins. “There’s always a lag in how you recover these costs,” said Dave Geyer, a vice president at Schneider.

Trade woes

The Port of New Orleans and the Port of South Louisiana, which handle roughly 25 percent of the country’s international trade, are at least a week away from a full recovery. It is not yet clear how many river barges sank during the storm or how many are gone for good, but shipping rates are already higher in anticipation of tighter capacity.

Barges that might have earned $200-$400 a day for a 30-day trip between New Orleans and Pittsburgh are now commanding as much as $800-$1,000. “It’s kind of like the people who rushed to the gas stations,” said Mark Knoy, president of AEP River Operations, a division of the Columbus, Ohio-based power company American Electric Power.

Knoy said he believed the Louisiana ports would be almost fully operational by the end of next week, though schedules would be limited for a while because of the dearth of reliable communications and of employees – AEP still has to locate more than 10 percent of its work force.

“We literally have people driving around in cars passing along messages and that’s just not very efficient,” Knoy said.

Building materials

Also far from the Gulf Coast, O’Brien Constructors LLC, a general contractor based in Portland, Ore., is hearing that the cost of plywood is about to go up by 25 percent in the wake of Katrina because of the increased demand for building materials. One supplier said prices were also about to rise for roofing, insulation and dry wall.

“It’s hard to tell the difference between a real shortage and panic, and who knows what element of price gouging is out there,” said Laura Schauer, O’Brien’s director of client services. “It’s a volatile market right now. It may look different next week.”