Analysis: Beating Patriots tall task, even for Indy

The long-range weather report for Sunday in Foxboro, Mass., is partly cloudy with temperatures from 20 to 30 degrees. Not exactly the RCA Dome this week: no wind and 72.

Yes, Peyton Manning is great, the best active NFL quarterback and moving up the list of the best ever.

But beating a flawed Denver team, 49-24, at home is not the same as going into frigid Foxboro against the winner of two of the last three Super Bowls.

So far road teams have fared well in the playoffs — better than ever before. Three of the four winners in the wild-card round were road teams. The Colts were the only home team to win, and they’ll be the best of the second-round road teams.

They will need all the skill they can muster — they have lost to the Patriots five straight times, including in last year’s AFC championship game and on the opening night of this season, both times in Foxboro.

Indianapolis-New England will be the final game of next weekend’s Super Bowl quarterfinals, which will begin with Saturday’s other AFC semifinal, the Jets at Pittsburgh. The Patriots are favored by three points; the Steelers by nine.

In the NFC, Minnesota will be Sunday at Philadelphia after beating Green Bay, 31-17, joining St. Louis as the first 8-8 teams to advance in the playoffs. The Rams, who beat Seattle, 27-20, on Saturday, now go Saturday to Atlanta for a night game.

As with the AFC games, these are rematches. Philadelphia beat the Vikings, 27-16, in the second week of the season, a day after Atlanta beat St. Louis, 34-17. The Eagles are favored by nine points, the Falcons by seven.

The most interesting game will be in Foxboro, matching Manning and the other record breakers in the Colts’ offense against the defending champs.

And in the five losses to New England dating to 2001, Manning has thrown just nine TD passes along with nine interceptions. Once again, he will be facing Tom Brady, who doesn’t have Manning’s numbers but has the title — two, actually — that Manning lacks.

But the Colts seem confident they can keep their prolific offense going — even in January in Foxboro.

“When the playoffs come around, you definitely want be hitting on all cylinders,” said tight end Dallas Clark, who had 112 yards Sunday. “I think we are, and the team keeps getting better every game.”

The other AFC game also is is a rematch. The Steelers beat the Jets, 17-6, in Chad Pennington’s second game back from a bruised rotator cuff.

Philadelphia, which started 13-1 before tanking its last two games, should be the prohibitive favorite in the NFC. But they will be without Terrell Owens and may have lost momentum resting most of their key players in their last two losses.

St. Louis will have what it likes in Atlanta — an indoor stadium. But the track also benefits Michael Vick, who ran for 109 yards and was 14-of-19 for 179 yards in the first meeting.