Commentary: Playoff road not exactly Colts’ ally

New England likely will have something to say about Indy's plans for a spot In Super Bowl XL

Here is the worst possible scenario for the Indianapolis Colts: The New England Patriots, getting healthier, win their first-round playoff game and arrive at the RCA Dome primed to do just what they’ve done for the past two seasons – bounce the Colts out of the playoffs.

Coming off this weekend’s results, it seems more than possible.

It might even be a pretty good bet.

Say the Colts cruise through the last two games – win, lose, who cares? – as Jim Sorgi, Dominic Rhodes, Aaron Moorehead and some even lesser-known guys play a lot against Seattle and Arizona. The starters see enough action to keep their edge and wounded guys such as Robert Mathis, Corey Simon and Ryan Diem heal up. That’s the reward they get for starting 13-0 and getting home-field advantage in the postseason.

Now think about their likely playoff opponents.

The Colts have dispatched Denver from the playoffs easily the last two seasons 41-10 and 49-24, so they probably won’t mind seeing the Broncos too much. Pittsburgh isn’t the same team it was last year and lost 26-7 on Nov. 28 in the dome. And Cincinnati, 45-37 loser to the Colts on Nov. 20 in Paul Brown Stadium, has almost no one with playoff experience. Cincy seems a little too young and brash to get by the Colts on the road.

But think about a second-round matchup between the Patriots and the host Colts. Because when/if they meet, the Colts won’t be playing the same New England team they beat, 40-21, on Nov. 7 in Foxborough, Mass.

“I think we’ve gotten a little better in the last month,” an understated Bill Belichick said after his team beat on Tampa Bay, an NFC playoff contender, 28-0 on Saturday.

Beyond that, New England, though only 9-5, will get some rest, too. It already has clinched what arguably is the NFL’s worst division and has no chance of getting a first-round bye. So the wounded players who haven’t fully healed yet, such as left tackle Matt Light, can continue to work into shape.

The way the seedings break down right now, the Patriots will get their first game at home against warm-weather Jacksonville, hardly a fearsome opponent after stumbling to a 10-9 victory over San Francisco on Sunday.

If the Patriots win that game? They have a good shot at meeting Indy in the second round, the weekend of Jan. 14-15. It’s not guaranteed because the NFL re-seeds after the first round, and if the sixth seed – New England would be No. 4 – wins in the first round (Pittsburgh, perhaps), it would go to Indianapolis and the Pats would play the second-seeded team, either Denver or Cincinnati.

But the Patriots and Colts still could meet in the AFC title game.

Even with a 13-0 start, the Colts have won nothing yet. The Patriots have won three titles in four seasons and have their own history to shoot for, trying to become the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. With all due respect to Tony Dungy (career record 106-64), he is 5-7 in the postseason to Belichick’s 10-1. And with all due respect to Manning (with his records and MVP trophies), Brady has three rings and he has none.

Yes, the Colts will rebound from Sunday’s loss. But their prospects of reaching the ultimate goal will improve markedly if someone – anyone – knocks off the Patriots before they get to Indy.