It could be a thrill seeker, someone with a laundry list of grudges, a curious kid, a pyromaniac who can’t control his or her urge to see something burn.

When a serial arsonist strikes, as authorities suspect happened 15 times earlier this month in Douglas and Johnson counties, one of the major questions facing investigators is the motive behind the fires. It’s not easy to answer that question, in part because only a tiny fraction of arsons nationwide actually end in arrest and conviction.

“Sometimes these investigations go on for years,” said Larry Scott, a Kansas City-based spokesman with the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, which has a task force investigating the area cases.

According to statistics compiled by the National Fire Protection Assn. in Quincy, Mass., only 16 percent of arsons nationwide in 2001 ended in an arrest, and only about 2 percent of the fires led to convictions. Nearly half of the people arrested were juveniles.

‘What brings it on?’

Investigators suspect the area fires could be the work of the same person: a man spotted in Kansas University’s Watson Library before a book fire March 8. He is the subject of a composite police sketch.

Several of the fires have been started using the same kind of compound, officials say. But the wide range of targets — homes under construction, a bank, a Quick Cash, a Lawrence dentist’s office and a garden center — has people such as Michael Schlatman puzzled.

“Are they targets of opportunity or is there a linking factor?” asked Schlatman, of Consolidated Forensic Investigations Inc. in Johnson County. “I think there’s a compelling force, not an irresistible impulse, but something going on with this fire setter, whether he is acting out when he’s angry or he’s acting out against certain types of companies.”

The recent fires have not caused serious injury, but the damage at an Olathe senior citizens’ home under construction totaled about $4 million, officials said. Schlatman called arson an “insidious, horrendous crime,” in part because it puts firefighters at risk each time.

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“The question is, ‘What is the gain for this particular guy?'” Schlatman asked. “It is an emotional trigger that brings it on, and if so, what brings it on? Anger? Rejection?”

Circumstantial evidence

Schlatman is first vice president of the International Association of Arson Investigators, which has 8,000 members in 36 countries. He said he knew of one case in which a traveling salesman set fires when the opportunity arose and another in which a woman set fires so that neighbors would come out of their homes and talk to her.

“It may be as little (a motivation) as excitement because there’s where the big red trucks come with the lights flashing,” he said. “There’s a turmoil. There’s a disturbance.”

He said one reason behind the low arrest and conviction rate for arsons was that some of the fires — say, a 4-year-old setting fire to the living-room couch — weren’t handled through the criminal-justice system. Also, he said, there’s a perception that the cases are hard to prove in court because they rely heavily on circumstantial evidence.

According to the Lawrence Police Department, there were 8 reported arsons in the city in 2003, but figures weren’t available Tuesday about how many of those ended in arrests or convictions.

Following leads

Investigators working the local cases thought linked to the serial arsonist have about 140 leads but no suspects, said Scott, the ATF spokesman. The bureau is working with profilers at its agency headquarters, but Scott wouldn’t say what they’re considering or describe how they do their work.

He also declined to speculate about motive.

“I learned a long time ago not to speculate,” he said.

He said that investigators weren’t withholding information from the public about motives for the fires. They just didn’t know.

“There’s a full spectrum. It could be just getting back at somebody for something that was done … all the way up to various other issues someone has dealt with in their life,” said Mark Bradford, deputy chief of Lawrence-Douglas County Fire & Medical.

Investigators are asking people with information to call the Crime Stoppers hot line at 843-8477.

Schlatman, the private investigator, said one common obstacle in serial-arson investigations is that the difference in jurisdictions keeps agencies from communicating. He said he doubted that was a problem in these cases because of the centralized ATF task force.

“It’s been our experience that in the Midwest they cooperate with each other,” he said. “There’s not any turf wars. It’s not possessive … They will catch this guy.”