It may come down to a choice.

Either Lawrence teachers will get pay raises next year, or elementary schools can keep smaller class sizes.

That was the analysis provided by school board President Austin Turney after a retreat Tuesday to discuss next year’s budget for the Lawrence school district. Much of the discussion centered on the Lawrence Education Assn.’s plea for reducing class sizes next year.

“What I see happening is, as we move toward that (providing smaller classes), there will be pressure to increase salaries,” Turney said. “We’ve reached the point where it’s a strong possibility we won’t be able to do both, and there will be choices that have to be made.”

LEA president Wayne Kruse said he remained confident the board could find a way to fund both areas as it looks to cut — in a worst-case scenario — as much as $2 million from its budget. Teachers, administrators and board members have identified class size and salaries as top priorities the past five years, he said.

“If all three groups are saying the same thing, that those are our top priorities, I’m assuming that’s where the money is going to flow,” Kruse said. “It goes back to priorities. We need to fund both of them.”

The class-size debate stemmed from preliminary class-size projections released by district staff.

Initial teacher staffing projections are based on what the district calls its “base ratio” — the total number of students expected to enroll in the fall divided by 22, 23 or 24, depending on the socioeconomic level of each school.

Under that ratio, the average elementary class size would increase from 19.86 students this year to 22.25 students next year. The district would have 27 fewer elementary teachers because of declining enrollment.

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But in recent years, the district has hired more teachers than necessary for the base ratio, in part with federal funding. Last year, for example, the school board allocated funds to hire 10 teachers above the base ratio and had federal funds for three more.

Mary Rodriguez, the district’s director of human resources, has recommended hiring 11 teachers above the base in the coming year, and said she expected federal funds for another five. If that is the case, the average projected class size would be 20.63.

“This concern is based on numbers if we funded nothing beyond the ratio, which we’ve never done,” board member Cindy Yulich said. “That’s what the teachers are hearing, but we’ve never said that. Nobody from this board or administration has said that.”

But Turney said he couldn’t guarantee the district would hire those additional teachers until the Legislature sets its funding levels for the 2004-2005 year, which almost certainly won’t happen until May.

“We’re held hostage by the legislative process,” Supt. Randy Weseman said.

The district’s budget committee was scheduled to review possible budget reductions Tuesday, but the review was postponed to its meeting at 4:30 p.m. March 2.