Midwest economy slowing, survey finds

? An index tracking Midwest manufacturing declined in July while inflationary pressures remained strong, according to a monthly survey of supply managers and business leaders released Monday.

In the Mid-America Business Conditions Index, conducted across a nine-state region by Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group, the overall index declined to 64.2 from June’s 68.2.

The prices-paid index declined for a third straight month. But at 83.4, inflationary pressures at the wholesale level remained above desired levels, Creighton economics professor Ernie Goss said.

The overall index ranges between 0 and 100. An index greater than 50 indicates an expanding economy over the course of the next three to six months.

States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

The employment index for the region was weaker in July at 61.5, compared to June’s 65.4.

Hiring in the region has been very strong for the first half of the year, with annualized job growth exceeding 2 percent, Goss said.

“Between 1995 and the beginning of the recession in 2001, regional employment expanded at a pace slightly less than 2 percent per year,” Goss said. “What we’re seeing in July is consistent with that same solid pace for the second half of 2004.”

Delivery speed of raw materials and supplies to businesses in the region continues to slow, Goss said.

“Supply managers reported significant bottlenecks, with an index of 63, indicating both supply bottlenecks and longer times to fill orders,” Goss said.

“Oil prices, at a record $43 per barrel in nominal terms, continue to cut into business profitability and slow growth,” said Goss, who is director of Creighton’s Economic Forecasting Group.

U.S. manufacturing expanded for the 14th consecutive month in July, boosted by new orders and higher production, the Institute for Supply Management said Monday.The institute said its manufacturing index registered 62.0 last month, up from 61.1 in June. That was in line with the consensus forecast of analysts.An index reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below 50 indicates that manufacturing activity is contracting. The gauge has been above 50 since June of last year.