Surge in bookings suggests ’04 travel upturn

? A sagging economy, 9-11 and SARS. Fear of flying, war in Iraq and bombs in Bali. A weak dollar and the high price of gas. Rain here at home, April through July, and a heat wave in Paris.

Is it any wonder that big vacations went out with the Wall Street boom?

But that was then — and this is now. From consumer surveys to hotel bookings, from Web site traffic to festival crowds, from weekend getaways to the trip of a lifetime, it’s beginning to look a lot like travel is back.

“In the past month, I’ve done Russian river cruises, Moldova, Costa Rica and Bolivia,” said Dana Vannasse of Beacon Hill Travel in Weston, Mass. “I am quite amazed at how people have returned to the travel market. Client interest in Third World and soft adventure has grown tremendously in the last 90 days. Many clients have had this pent-up interest and are now manifesting it.”

Her observations concur with the results of American Express’ annual travel survey, released Oct. 22, which showed Americans are planning to spend more on travel in 2004 than they did in 2003.

Why the apparent upsurge? “General consumer unease from the war and economy” is waning, said Karen Baker, marketing manager for Rock City Gardens in Lookout Mountain, Ga., which boasts panoramic views and ancient rock formations. “We show positive numbers this fall, and I think it reflects a pent-up demand from summer trips planned but not taken.”

October attendance at Rock City increased 24 percent over October 2002.

“Consumers are feeling a bit more confident,” agreed Rocco Laterzo, American Express’ senior vice president for travel. “But there’s still a focus on value. People expect a lot for what they will spend.”

Three-fourths of those surveyed said they were seeking quality vacations “within a budget.”

Visitors enjoy watching Maggie, a 2-year-old female sea otter, as she shakes food from a tube during her public debut at the Monterey Bay Aquarium in Monterey, Calif., in this April 3, 2003, photo. Attendance at the aquarium has been on the rise since the Fourth of July holiday weekend, reflecting a pickup in the leisure travel industry.

“My advice to travelers contemplating visits to popular destinations such as the Hawaiian islands, Italy, Greece, Cancun or Great Britain in 2004, is to book now while airline seats and hotel rooms are plentiful, especially if you have specific dates in mind,” said Cynthia Valles, general manager of American Express’ U.S. Consumer Travel Network.

‘Impressive’ reversal

Hilary Lachoff of North Hollywood, Calif., vacationed in June in Thailand, her first big trip since going to Costa Rica five years ago. After the Sept. 11 attacks, she said, “I remember thinking that I would restrict all vacation travel to driving trips until the long delays and new security procedures at the airports had been worked out.”

When she was finally ready, she looked for “adventure, relaxation and cultural exploration all within one country,” but also a place where “our dollar would stretch.” She considered Turkey, then rejected it because of the war in Iraq, and decided to stick with plans for Thailand even after the SARS outbreak. The trip was great, she said, and she hopes to take more like it in the future.

In addition to renewed interest in foreign travel, regional attractions are also seeing crowds. At the Monterey Bay Aquarium in California, “we had been concerned because the period March through June was below our projections,” said spokesman Ken Peterson. “The reversal, which began just after the Fourth of July holiday weekend, has been impressive.”

Charlie Nichols, 12, of St Louis, looks out of a window of a Grand Canyon Railway car as he waits to leave the Williams, Ariz., depot for a trip to the Grand Canyon in this March 25, 2001, photo. Grand Canyon Railway ridership is up 7.5 percent this year over 2002. Clearly

Grand Canyon Railway ridership is also up, 7.5 percent this year over 2002. “Clearly we are benefiting from a rebound in the travel industry,” spokesman Jerry Thull said.

Hotels also report increased demand. At the Breakers Palm Beach Hotel, a luxury oceanfront resort in Florida, October 2003 bookings were 34 percent ahead of 2002, and 22 percent ahead of October 2001.

Last year, the Hyatt Regency Chesapeake Bay Golf Resort in Maryland sold out for Thanksgiving — but only because 80 percent of the rooms went to a teen pageant. The resort expects to sell out for Thanksgiving this year without group business.

The 41st Annual Antique Festival offered Oct. 4-5 in Holmes County, Ohio, where a local Amish community draws tourists, was expected to have 5,000 people this year; instead, 15,000 showed up. And in Greene County, another rural Ohio area not far from Columbus, hotel tax revenue is up, requests for tourism information are 14 percent ahead of last year and visits to the local tourism Web site are up 68 percent.

From driving to flying

Expedia.com saw a 50 percent increase in bookings for the second quarter of 2003 over the same period in 2002, and is suddenly seeing consumer interest in places like Costa Rica and Hong Kong, according to product manager Teri Franklin.

“The trend we’re seeing now is people going to the more exotic locations; they’re switching from driving to flying,” she said.

The Travel Industry of America’s senior vice president of research, Suzanne Cook, thinks that Americans remain “reluctant to commit, so last-minute planning and booking will continue to be the norm.”

But the sudden uptick in travel may lead consumers to change those habits, especially because airlines have cut the number of flights.