Nation’s retailers report rising inventories

Buildup of merchandise provides opportunities, bargains for consumers

? At the Abercrombie & Fitch store in New Jersey’s Short Hills Mall, shoppers can find piles of men’s shorts, all marked down 25 percent.

Meanwhile, the Contempo Casuals store at the Mall of America in Minneapolis can’t seem to get rid of its spring fashions, leftovers from before Easter. They’ve been marked down as much as 50 percent.

With cooler than normal weather and the war in Iraq stifling consumer demand this spring, retailers are saddled with an oversupply of merchandise, particularly seasonal items such as T-shirts and grills.

That means a boon for consumers as stores increase discounts to clear excess inventory and make room for fall goods that start arriving in mid-July.

“It’s been a little cheaper than what I expected,” said Jason Naber, of Columbus, Ohio, who bought two pairs of Tommy Hilfiger shorts at a Lazarus department store for $30 each — a discount of 40 percent off the regular price.

Todd Slater, an analyst at Lazard Freres, said “The consumer is going to be sitting pretty.”

Discounts will be perhaps most generous in apparel, where inventory growth — up 8 percent — was higher than a 2.9 percent sales gain in the first quarter, according to Slater’s estimates. That marks the first time in at least a decade that inventory growth is higher than sales growth in apparel, he said.

The inventory buildup is extending to other areas including electronics and home furnishings, said Frank Badillo, senior retail economist at Retail Forward, a consulting firm in Columbus, Ohio.

In March, it took 1.6 months to sell merchandise overall, up from 1.54 months a year earlier and continuing a pattern of inventory buildup since last October, according to the Commerce Department.

An unidentified man browses for outdoor furniture at a Little Rock, Ark., Wal-Mart store. With-cooler-than normal weather and the war in Iraq stifling consumer demand this spring, retailers are saddled with an oversupply of merchandise, particularly seasonal items. At Wal-Mart Stores Inc., inventory rose 13.4 percent while total sales increased 9.7 percent in the first quarter of 2003.

Even at Wal-Mart Stores Inc., inventory rose 13.4 percent while total sales increased 9.7 percent in the first quarter.

“We have some work to do in the coming quarters to bring our inventories down to the appropriate level,” Lee Scott, president and CEO of Wal-Mart, acknowledged during a recent conference call with analysts. Tom Williams, a company spokesman, said this week the chain has excess inventory in such areas as grills and summer apparel, but there was a sales pickup in these items in the week ended May 23.

“(Inventory) will begin to lighten out,” he said. He declined to comment on Memorial Day weekend sales.

Jessica Williamson, store manager at teen retailer Contempo Casuals in the Mall of America, said the store wasn’t as busy as expected during the holiday weekend. “We have an incredible amount of clearance stuff,” she said, referring to scores of capri pants, tops and shoes.

Merchants have generally done a good job in controlling inventory in recent years. Right after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, retailers quickly canceled orders and cut back on merchandise, preserving their profits during the first three quarters of 2002, Slater said.

Sales growth had widely outstripped inventory growth, but Slater noted that the spread in apparel has narrowed every quarter since fourth quarter 2001 before worsening dramatically the first quarter of 2003.

Throughout the year, analysts have been steadily cutting the retail profit outlook. Currently, analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call expect 5.9 percent growth on average for 137 retailers in the second quarter, down from an earlier 13.4 percent forecast.

Joe Teklits, an analyst at Wachovia Securities, said the fiscal second quarter, which typically begins in early May for retailers, is a tricky period because there are only about six weeks of full-price selling before stores have to start discounting to make room for fall goods.

“Stores don’t want to have sale merchandise next to full-price fall products,” Teklits said. “That will entice consumers to hold off buying for fall.”

The mood was mixed among consumers shopping for bargains in the stores earlier this week.

“I’m a little more careful these days,” said Pam Shaffer at the Polaris Fashion Place in suburban Columbus. “We’re trying to buy things that are needed, not just because we want them.”

Meanwhile, Maureen Cote, at a Target store in Colonie, N.Y., was less worried about the economy than a month ago.

“The weather’s been so horrible. I am anxious to get outside,” Cote said, gesturing to the bargains in her shopping cart: six green plastic lawn chairs at $3.50 each.