Washington ? The economy that turned sluggish at the end of last year isn’t doing much better now — and may well be doing worse — as war uncertainties and the stagnant job market make consumers and businesses more cautious. Some analysts worry about a slide back into recession.

Since the 2001 recession, the economy has tried, unsuccessfully so far, to get back to full throttle.

Optimistic analysts believe the economy in the current January-March quarter has grown at a below-normal annual rate of around 1.5 percent to just over 2 percent. More pessimistic economists are suggesting growth of under a 1 percent rate, and some believe the first quarter could show the economy shrank, a step toward recession.

“I don’t think anybody really wants to make significant financial commitments in view of the jobless recovery, the geopolitical situation and higher energy prices, which are eating into purchasing power,” said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo.

The broadest measure of economic health — gross domestic product — slowed from a decent 4 percent annual growth rate in the third quarter of 2002 to 1.4 percent in the final quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

That final quarterly estimate was unchanged from a month ago. GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced in the United States.

While Sohn believes the economy will grow at a lackluster 2 percent rate in the first quarter, Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at LaSalle Bank is more bearish, forecasting 0.5 percent growth rate. “The chance of having a negative first quarter is very real,” he said.

The government will release its initial estimate of first-quarter GDP on April 25.