Always a gamble

Drivers never know what to expect at Talladega

Unpredictable. Toss-up. Wild card.

Those words have been used countless times to describe restrictor-plate racing, especially at Talladega Superspeedway, site of Sunday’s EA Sports 500.

But this season the fall race at Talladega has an even greater air of uncertainty.

The Winston Cup series is engulfed in its tightest points race in history, with the top five drivers separated by 121 points and seven of 36 races remaining. Even the 10th-place driver, Ricky Rudd, isn’t out of the title picture, trailing leader Jimmie Johnson by 282 points.

Then there is the debut of the smaller fuel cell this weekend, which reduces the size of each car’s fuel tank from 22 to about 13 gallons. The move by NASCAR is intended to increase the number of pit stops and spread out the field, in theory reducing the possibility of large wrecks from the typical closely packed racing.

“There is no safe place at Talladega and Daytona,” said driver Matt Kenseth, who leads the series with four wins this season. “You can try to be smart and ride around all day, but there’s really nothing you can do.

“You can be riding in the middle of the pack and get wrecked, you can be the leader and get wrecked or you can be running last and get wrecked, so it’s one of those tracks that you’re never sure what’s going to happen until you take the checkered flag.”

Tony Stewart, who trails Johnson by 36 points, calls the series move to Talladega this weekend “frustrating.”

Crew members repair Matt Kenseth's car after it was damaged during a wreck last April in the Aaron's 499 at Talladega Superspeedway. The track is known for its collisions and multiple-car wrecks.

“You never know what to expect, and unfortunately a lot of the things that happen are out of your control, and in many cases out of everybody else’s control, too,” Stewart said. “You just pray that you don’t end up in one of the big wrecks that inevitably seem to happen.”

A driver’s ability to avoid the “big wreck” will likely separate some of the championship contenders from the pack this weekend.

Ironically, those who have been most successful at the restrictor-plate tracks of late Dale Earnhardt Jr., Ward Burton and Michael Waltrip are not in the championship battle.

Of the top five, Sterling Marlin has enjoyed the most success at the three plate races this season. He was eighth and third in the two races at Daytona and second at the spring race at Talladega. Hendrick Motorsports teammates Johnson and Jeff Gordon also performed well, each with two top-10s.

“The superspeedway is the type of race track that I don’t have all that much experience on, but I feel like I’m getting better with each race on them and I’m learning more about the draft and using it to my advantage,” Johnson said.

“The nice thing about the superspeedways is if you have a strong car and are moving forward, usually the guys will work with you.”

The question this weekend will be how many cars are able to stay together if the additional pit stops tend to separate the field.

Some drivers, like John Andretti, see the same teams that have recent success at the track continuing their dominance.

“I don’t think this is going to be such a ‘wild card’ race like so many have been saying,” he said. “I still think the guys who have good plate programs will run up front. If you’re at the front, you pit at the front. You can have a little problem and still be all right.”

Most of the teams in the championship hunt have had success at the intermediate or short tracks this season. The thought that hard work could be thrown away in one race at Talladega is almost unfair, said driver Kevin Harvick.

“Some of these teams will be riding high on their momentum and something will happen at Talladega,” he said. “Something big it’s always big at Talladega.

“And if you let it, that one wreck can put a halt to everything you’ve done over the summer. It’ll force the team to play catch-up the rest of the races.”