Omaha, Neb. ? Drought in Kansas, Nebraska and the Dakotas, along with overall weakness in the national economy, is hurting business in the Midwest, according to an economist who has surveyed company officials in a nine-state region.

Reports of poor business conditions in the region may not signal a return to a recession, but a dramatic slowdown is clearly possible, Creighton University professor Ernie Goss said Tuesday.

Each month, Goss surveys manufacturing supply managers and business leaders in the region that also includes Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and Oklahoma.

With an index ranging between 0 and 100, numbers below 50 indicate contraction in manufacturing and numbers greater than 50 indicate expansion.

For September, the overall index in Goss’ Mid-America Business Conditions Survey declined for a fourth straight month to 49.4, its lowest since January and down from August’s 51.1.

Drought has gripped parts of the Midwest for a year at a cost to Nebraska’s economy of at least $1.4 billion.

Ripple effects of the drought will reduce economic growth in Nebraska over the next six months, Goss said.

Nebraska Gov. Mike Johanns, who has had to call two special sessions in the last year to deal with budget shortfalls caused by the economic slowdown, said he expected the state’s recovery to be spotty.

“This is a good time to be very, very cautious just simply because as we see signs of recovery, I think it’s going to be uneven,” Johanns said.

While it is difficult to gauge the economic impact of the drought in Kansas, which had a business conditions index of 39.8, it clearly has had some effect, Goss said.

In Goss’ survey, new orders for September in the region declined to 49.7 from August’s 51.5. Businesses across the country continue to reduce employment, Goss said.

“While I don’t expect the economy to move back into recessionary economic conditions, surveys over the past several months have clearly increased the potential of a dip back into a recessionary pattern,” Goss said.