Topeka ? The most important event of the 2002 legislative session takes place at the end of this week.

A dozen state officials and three university economists are to meet at 1:30 p.m. Friday and spend several hours discussing the economy and crunching numbers. They will emerge from the closed session with a new forecast of state revenue collections.

Then, Gov. Bill Graves and legislators will know how little money the state has to spend.

The most recent projection put the gap between likely revenue and required spending for the next fiscal year at $426 million. Legislative leaders fear Friday’s forecast will show it reaching $600 million  or 12.5 percent of the $4.8 billion needed for programs required by state law.

“It’s possible they could put the state in a true budget crisis, in my estimation, where essential government programs are in immediate and serious jeopardy,” said House Speaker Kent Glasscock, R-Manhattan.

Legislative leaders want to avoid cutting education spending and social services but believe it will be difficult if the gap grows in size.

The gap would widen if the estimators think  as expected  the previous revenue forecast, made in November, was too optimistic.

“I think we all know there’s going to be less money available,” said House Minority Leader Jim Garner, D-Coffeyville.

Senate President Dave Kerr said he is guessing the estimators  the economists, Department of Revenue officials, Budget Division staffers and Legislative Research Department employees  will cut their figure for expected revenues by $170 million. Others say $200 million is possible.

“I think a lot of our constituents and even some legislators have not appreciated the extent of the shortfall we face,” said Kerr, R-Hutchinson. “This isn’t something that can be settled with some limited set of adjustments.”

In making spending recommendations, the House and Senate budget committees have been sticking close to a budget Gov. Bill Graves submitted to legislators in January. His plan assumed no tax increases, expanded gambling or other revenue raisers.

Graves’ budget reduces aid to education, cuts social service programs, closes minimum-security prisons, cancels highway projects and denies state workers a pay raise. Overall spending would drop 5 percent, or $233 million, to less than $4.3 billion for the fiscal year starting July 1.

Graves also has proposed $228 million in tax increases to help prevent cuts in education, social services and highway projects.

But Kerr said the governor’s tax proposals won’t be large enough if the estimators come back with awful numbers.

“We’re going to have to cut into the meat,” Kerr said. “Some of the things that make state government function will be on the chopping block.”

Glasscock plans to have the House debate proposed tax increases the week after the new estimates are released. Following that, the Appropriations Committee is supposed to fashion a budget that fits with the tax policy House members approve.

Then, the speaker said, the House will debate that proposed budget. If House members reject it, the whole debate will start over.

Glasscock calls his plan the “build your own salad” approach.

Kerr said he plans to appoint a special committee to deal with the overall financial picture, rather than leaving it to the Ways and Means Committee, which is immersed in budget details.

Both chambers are waiting for the estimators to finish their work.