Economy largely out of Bush’s hands

? Hoping to bolster confidence in the sputtering economy, President Bush has invited a diverse group of investors, workers, corporate executives, students and economists to Texas on Tuesday to share ideas about promoting economic growth.

The high-profile gathering at Baylor University in Waco is part of a White House campaign to reassure Americans that the economy is on track and in capable hands. Most experts agree that there is little any president can do short term to reinvigorate a weak economy, but Bush will be held to account for it anyway.

The president faces puzzling economic circumstances. Although most experts agree with him that the economy is fundamentally sound and poised for renewed growth, millions of Americans are watching their net worth evaporate in the stock market and are none too happy about it.

“I love George. I voted for him. I voted for his dad. I think he’s going to be a one-term president, just like his dad,” said Tony Sagami, a Texas-based investment analyst who is deeply pessimistic about the economy. “People are going to ask that question, ‘Are you better off now than you were four years ago?’ and the answer is going to be no.”

So what can Bush do? Not much, most experts say.

The federal government already has cut taxes and gone into deficit spending, both of which gave the economy a boost. The president can call for accelerating some of the tax cuts that are still pending, but he is unlikely to win support for that in Congress, where many Democrats argue that the pending tax cuts should be repealed to avoid plunging the government into debt.

“My sense is the cupboard is pretty bare in terms of new policies,” said Greg Valliere, a Washington-based political analyst for the Charles Schwab brokerage. “I just don’t see a lot of concrete things he can do other than to reassure people the economy is in decent shape.”

Economists and market watchers say part of the problem is that the Bush administration does not have a high-stature economic spokesman.

Despite his MBA and his executive experience in the business world, Bush is not generally considered an economic heavyweight. Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill is viewed as a loose cannon, and economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey is little known in investment circles.

“We don’t have a strong economic spokesman,” said Sung Won Sohn, an executive vice president at Wells Fargo Banks. “Every time a government official opens his or her mouth, the stock market goes down.”

Asked what he wants from Bush’s economic conference in Waco, Sohn said: “Frankly, I’d like them to make as little noise as possible.”

Even so, history suggests that Bush might be wise in trying to reassure average Americans that he cares about their problems and is working to solve them.

President Ronald Reagan presided over a stormy recession early in his first term, and rode it out with a stoic vow to stay the course. President Bill Clinton responded to the weak economy he inherited with a flurry of activity, and benefited from positive trends that started before he took office. Both cruised to re-election.

In contrast, President George Bush, the current president’s father, saw his popularity crumble under the weight of a nagging recession and the view that he was remote and didn’t care much about the economic hardships of ordinary people. He lost his bid for a second term.

Many Americans came to think the elder Bush was oblivious to their difficulties, a view he fostered by glancing at his watch during a campaign debate focused largely on the economy, as if to say, “Get me out of here.”

After winning that election, Clinton didn’t even wait to take office before hosting a two-day economic forum in Little Rock, Ark., where he showcased his knowledge and concern about the nation’s problems for a national television audience.

The younger Bush is borrowing that page from Clinton’s playbook.

“I think the Bush summit is aimed at conveying the message to the people that the president is on top of the economy,” said John Silvia, a former Senate Banking Committee staff expert who’s now chief economist for Wachovia Corp., in Charlotte, N.C. “A lot of what this conference is about is visibility, saying I’m here, I’m on the job, I’m working.”

Or, as the first President Bush put it during his unsuccessful re-election campaign: “Message: I care.”

The younger Bush, who is far better at connecting with ordinary people than his dad was, says it in warmer tones.

“Our economy is growing. It’s getting better. Inflation is low,” he told a crowd Wednesday in Jackson, Miss., at the first in a series of presidential events focusing on the economy. “But listen, so long as anybody is looking for work and can’t find work, I think we’ve got a problem.”