Who will win the attorney general’s race? How about Congress? And what will it mean for the future. With Election Day less than 24 hours away, aske KU political science professor Allan Cigler your questions.

Moderator

Hi there! We’re less than 24 hours away from the election. I’m Joel Mathis, managing editor for convergence, and I’ll be moderating today. Dr. Cigler joins us from his office on KU campus. Welcome!

Allan Cigler

Hi, glad to be here.

Moderator

Before we take questions, a quick overview: what is at stake in this election, and why it’s important for people to vote?

Allan Cigler

It seems to me the stake in the election is control of Congress. I think you’ll find if the Democrats control Congress, we’ll be in a situation where there are a lot of hearings, even if they capture only one house. We’re talking about an election that will be very close. In fact, I expect a number of disputed elections because of the closeness. This may very well be an election where a handful of votes determines the outcome.

jayhawktownie

How do you think the predominantly negative tone of the attorney general race will affect the outcome? Does this typically favor the challenger or the incumbent and will it discourage participation?

Allan Cigler

That’s an interesting question. My guess would be is that one of the things the negative tone does is energize supporters on both sides. I don’t think there’s any question the incumbent is on the defensive; this race is probably the highest-profile in the state right now, moreso than the governor’s race. How the outcome will be affected by the negativity of the campaign is hard to tell — most of the time negativity acts to depress turnout, but not all the time. My guess, though, is that the incumbent is in a great deal of difficulty, mostly because he’s the person who has had to defend his record and had difficulty doing so.

wheatridge

The Kath. Seb. campaign was obviously created and run by a very sophisticated machine, is this what it looks like when you have been selected for national candidacy?

Allan Cigler

I think it does. I think it has been a very professional campaign that has spent far more money than was needed to just win. As a consequence, it seems to me the aim is not just to win, but to win and convince national Democrats that Sebelius can do well in a traditional red state. A lot of people I know think she is running for vice president.

jfizell

Professor Cigler,

What is your opinion of Howard Dean’s gutsy 50-State Strategy? (Whereby the DNC delivered money and organizers to all the States, not just their past practice of making big media buys in a targeted seats viewed as swing in the current cycle in a few key battleground States.)

Do you think this may have contributed, in part, to the shifting electoral map, where Democrats are showing signs of competition in recently red States such as Kansas and Indiana? Beyond that, what do you think of this strategy’s potential for creating long-term openings or advances for the Democrats in the Midwest and West?

Thanks,
Jason

Allan Cigler

From the standpoint of the party, it’s a very good strategy, and it’s applauded by party activists and strategists across the country. I think many in Congress are uneasy with it, largely because they believe some of that money and effort should’ve been put in the campaign to take the House and the Senate. But from the long-term perspective, strengthening the party in places where it hasn’t been strong strikes me as a very good idea.

Ceee

Bloggers (e.g.www.talkingpointsmemo.com)have received complaints from Kansans in District 02 of annoying robocalls SUPPOSEDLY from the Boyda campaign. Boyda claims her campaign has not initiated such calls, that it is a dirty tricks campaign from her opponents. First, do you know if these types of calls have been made? Second, if they are fact, what can Boyda do to counter such deceptive tactics?

Allan Cigler

I don’t know whether these calls have been made. In previous elections they have been made by both sides – and frankly there’s nothing that can be done, particularly late in the campaign.

lawyerlee

I am not sure if this is within your expertise, but are our votes safe and accurate? After hearing about the problems that have been documented all across the country about technology failing, I am concerned that we could experience similar problems here.

Allan Cigler

A lot of people i know think there’s going to be so many close elections this time that it’s inevitable there’s going to be recounts. From what I know, not all of the electronic systems have good paper trails for recounts, so I think it’s going to be a problem and there’s going to be plenty of business for lawyers like yourself. The state where I hear this is going to be a problem the most is Missouri, by the way.

jayhawktownie

What does it say about the citizens of the U.S. if they continue to elect a Republican government despite all the current problems plaguing the administration?

Allan Cigler

I would just say that different people have different views of the world, and there’s not much we can do about it. There’s really no answer to that question.

Ceee

Has advance voting increased in Douglas County since the 2004 election? Does this have any significance for either party?

Allan Cigler

Advance voting was pretty high in 2004. There’s no way to know at this stage whether it’s increased or decreased. I personally don’t think there’s partisan implications to advance voting in this election. I’m uneasy with advance voting; while it increases turnout, there are things that can happen in a campaign between when one casts a ballot and Election Day that might potentially alter a vote. Turnout and convenience aren’t the only things elections are about.

november_sky

Sir, I am going to be very honest with you…I am a registered republican and I voted for George Bush twice. In the past few years I have grown very disappointed with him…and not just because of what’s been happening in Iraq…but because for a while there (after he was sworn in a second time) he said very little, if anything, about family values and border issues. Now all of a sudden, in recent months, he’s all about family values and border issues!! I think he has insult many republicans!
I do sense a nationwide backlash tomorrow…what do you think? I guess my point is this (and you can take it from there)…Bush obviously has taken his very conservative base for granted—and that has become very obvious to those who consider themselves (or should I say “used to consider themselves”) Bush’s conservative base. I think Bush has angered and disappointed many people in his own party…and tomorrow it may very well show (at the polls). Your thoughts? And thank you, sir!

Allan Cigler

I think most midterm elections are local, really, and the incumbent has a great advantage. The difference this time is that the Iraq War has nationalized the election; the war is a disadvantage to Republicans at this time. The increased talk about immigration and cultural issues is an attempt to refocus the election in time to energize, re-energize the traditional Republican base. This election, though, is about Iraq more than cultural issues – the tone of the Bush Administration in the last month notwithstanding. In large measure, the 2006 election is a referendum on the Bush Administration, particularly the Iraq policy.

Moderator

We’ve heard a lot about polls this election — something we in Kansas don’t always because the GOP can take wins for granted. How much stock should we put in polls regarding the attorney general and 2nd District Congress races?

Allan Cigler

A lot of the polls that one sees are in-house polls. There was a poll done by a reputable outlet a couple of weeks ago, that was also done a month previously, where it looked like there was a shift to Morrison of relatively large magnitude. I guess I do put stock in that particular poll. When you’re talking about relatively reputable polls with margins of 15 percent, I think you do take them seriously. The one thing that polls don’t measure is turnout.

interestedparty

What web locations and television outlets are the best for watching election results on Tuesday?

Allan Cigler

I don’t know. I usually pay attention to national elections and watch CNN. The only thing I don’t watch is Fox News, but that’s a reflection of my personal bias. CNN is good; there’s a number of Web sites that you could use – CNN is good, Washington Post Web site is usually pretty good.

jayhawktownie

Do you think Gov. Sebelius is a viable candidate for higher office in 2008 and should this issue have any bearing on the outcome of tomorrow’s election?

Allan Cigler

I think she’ll be given a lot of attention, particularly by East Coast Democrats looking for somebody who can do well in a red state. She’s a woman, she has run up some pretty good margins in her elections, her message is – while culturally liberal on issues like abortion – conservative in some ways, like her statements on immigration. She comes across as a moderate. I think vice president is only one potential for Kathleen Sebelius in 2008; I suspect a cabinet position is also a possibility. But she’ll become a spokesman for the party in this part of the country. I think her weakness has to do with she’s not really identified with any particular policy initiatives. In a sense, I guess her main claim to fame is she’s made Kansas government more efficient, and has been active in attracting more business to the state. If she wins tomorrow, big, she’ll become a major spokesman for the party nationally because of what she represents – a Democrat who wins in a conservative state.

Moderator

Any big predictions for tomorrow?

Allan Cigler

The safest prediction is that Kathleen Sebelius will win. The more risky prediction in the 2nd District is that Nancy Boyda will win – the only prediction I’ll make is that it will be close, nowhere near the 15 percent Ryun had last time. That’s quite remarkable for how much money she’s spent, with little help from the national party until the end. Nationally, I think Democrats will pick up 20 House seats to retain a majority, and on the Senate side, I think Republicans will probably sneak through – if they can win both Virginia and Missouri. If they don’t win those two states, the Democrats can win the Senate.

Moderator

We’re out of questions. Thanks, Dr. Cigler, for joining us today!