photo by: Kansas Athletics

Kansas running back Devin Neal carries the ball against West Virginia on Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024, in Morgantown, W.Va.

The Kansas football team’s three-game losing streak has the Jayhawks entering GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in quite a different place than when they began their season at Children’s Mercy Park.

But KU still has eight regular-season games left to play and plenty it can accomplish.

Ahead of Saturday’s clash with TCU, the first game KU has played at Arrowhead since 2011, head coach Lance Leipold said on Monday that he appreciates the fan base’s continued backing, “and they’re needed as much as ever to make a difference.”

“If they’re not disappointed or frustrated, they wouldn’t be a fan,” he added. “Don’t underestimate that that’s part of what happens here. But hopefully they show up and are energetic and can help us when we need them. They can continue to make a difference, and hopefully the same reason they believe in this university and program, and maybe if they’re newer to jumping on, they still see that this team has a lot of season to play.”

Leipold aims to change the arc of the season in a way that will reward those who stick around.

“It’s kind of like reading books or watching movies,” he said. “There’s some books and movies that start off really slow, but they end up being quite a story at the end. I plan on this team being one.”

The biggest obstacle KU faces right now on its way to a storybook ending is Leipold’s greatest concern about the team right now: “We haven’t played our best football at the time it’s needed.”

All three losses saw the Jayhawks hold a fourth quarter lead and watch it slip away. Most recently, they held a 28-17 lead on the road at West Virginia before allowing the Mountaineers to execute back-to-back touchdown drives with a KU three-and-out in between.

“There’s moments that we played some good football,” he said, “and then there’s times, especially late in the game here, where we need to be at our best, and we’re not. That has to change.”

The Jayhawks’ latest test is a TCU team that has had an uneven record of its own closing out games this year. The Frogs came back in the fourth quarter to beat Stanford in their opener, but later blew a three-touchdown lead in the second half against UCF. Most recently, they gave up 66 points and their head coach Sonny Dykes got ejected against rival SMU.

Both teams are in a vastly different place from when they last met, as unbeaten, ranked opponents who brought ESPN’s “College GameDay” to Lawrence.

“This is a team that’s a year and a half away from playing for a national championship,” Leipold said. “It’s a good football team. I know last season didn’t go the way they hoped and I’m sure there’s disappointment in their meeting room as there was in ours today.”

Leipold noted that TCU has “the best receiving corps and quarterback, I think as a group, that we’ve gone against.” The Frogs’ sophomore starter Josh Hoover leads the Big 12 in passing and has tossed 11 touchdowns, while receiver Jack Bech is first with 516 receiving yards. Savion Williams and Boise State transfer Eric McAlister have been productive, too.

“Quite honestly, at the end of the day, you just got to keep yourself in good matchups,” KU defensive coordinator Brian Borland said. “I feel good about anybody that’s going to cover those guys back there. But they’re good in their own right, they’ve got good size, they look like strong mature guys that run well. They’re going to be a handful.”

KU’s pass defense is coming off a game in which, despite its veteran talent throughout the secondary, it allowed a torrent of explosive plays to WVU’s Garrett Greene and 150 yards to wideout Hudson Clement.

“I don’t know that we’ve, all together, just put our best performance forward,” Borland said of the secondary. “Our ‘A’ players got to get A’s when it’s test time.”

On the flip side, TCU’s run defense may have trouble standing up against Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Jr. Dykes says he expects KU to run the ball 75% of the time or more.

“I would do the same thing,” he said. “I would run the ball until they stop it.”

The Horned Frogs are allowing 176.8 yards per game, which is tied for 99th in the nation; KU’s run game is gaining 238.8.

“They can run a million different schemes,” Dykes said, “and then all of a sudden you start putting the option stuff in, the speed, the triple and all the stuff that they do, and that’s some people’s entire offense.”

Neal has cleared 100 yards in all four games and is rapidly approaching the Jayhawks’ all-time record. Hishaw returned from a one-game absence to average eight yards per carry at West Virginia, quietly producing one of his best performances since mid-2023.

“They’re good coaches (at TCU), and I’m sure they’re looking to make corrections just like we are on things,” KU offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes said. “They may come out and play a different style and do everything they can to stop the run with numbers. And if so, then we’ll have choices to make.”

Kansas Jayhawks (1-3, 0-1 Big 12) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (2-2, 0-1 Big 12)

• GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri, 2:30 p.m.

• Broadcast: ESPN+

• Radio: Jayhawk Radio Network (in Lawrence, KLWN AM 1320 / K269GB FM 101.7 / KKSW FM 105.9)

• Betting line: KU -2.5; over/under 59

• Series history: TCU leads 26-9-4

What to watch for

1. In no rush: Leipold said that the Jayhawks need to do a better job rushing the passer, particularly with just their front four. Some preseason concerns about KU’s pass rush have come to fruition in the early weeks. So far KU’s top two weak-side defensive ends, Dean Miller and true freshman DJ Warner, have pass-rush win rates of 6.3% and 4.0%, respectively. For comparison, they are replacing Austin Booker, whose success rate was 14.3%. Given Hoover’s success thus far this season and relative lack of mobility, KU will need to push him off his spots. It doesn’t need to be about getting sacks, Borland said, as much as “it’s containing the quarterback in the pocket, it’s condensing the pocket, it’s making him uncomfortable and making him throw before he’s ready to throw.”

2. Picking spots: KU made a noteworthy change to its game-day protocol ahead of the West Virginia matchup by moving Grimes to the box and co-offensive coordinator Jim Zebrowski back to the sideline, but Leipold has not necessarily endorsed the practice or committed to it going forward. While he suggested on Monday that it might have been “more comfortable” for Zebrowski and quarterback Jalon Daniels to be together during the game, and Grimes later said he thought it had been a positive move, Leipold also said, “We’ll continue to analyze all things, including that.”

3. Fan support: The Jayhawks drew about 46,000 fans on average to their home games in 2023. Even if they got that same size of crowd out to Arrowhead, it would fill about 60% of the Chiefs’ spacious home stadium. And while KU has used a free student busing program and various marketing incentives to lure fans out to Kansas City, it’s not clear just how much of a crowd the Jayhawks will be able to bring, especially without building any on-field momentum in the early stages of the season. Perhaps Leipold’s call for support from the Jayhawk faithful on Monday, which KU boosted prominently on social media, will help offset any negative effects from the recent losses.

Spotlight on…

Bai Jobe: The redshirt freshman transfer defensive end from Michigan State was slowed in fall camp by a hand injury that made it difficult for him to play at his full capacity. But KU’s coaches are starting to ease him into action, and on one of his three pass-rush snaps at West Virginia, he made a good play that led to a sack. With KU looking for more pressure off the edge, it could turn to a high-motor athlete of whom Borland said, “right, wrong or otherwise, he’s going to go fast.” Borland added that he’s been putting in extra work after practices that will pay off in due time.

Inside the numbers

1,418: Hoover’s total passing yardage on the season, which is third in the nation.

83.8: The average of KU’s peak win probabilities in its last three games, per ESPN Analytics. All ended up as losses, most recently the West Virginia game in which KU had a 91% win probability late in the fourth quarter.

10-1: TCU’s record against KU since joining the Big 12.

Prediction

KU wins 34-27. The Jayhawks’ secondary will come out highly motivated after its uncharacteristic struggles against West Virginia, and it will do enough to limit TCU’s high-flying passing game. Meanwhile, it’s hard to see the Horned Frogs finding a way to stop Neal. If the Jayhawks can avoid turnovers and play a full 60 minutes of defense, this could be the game that sets them back on the right track with some manageable opponents ahead.