photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas head coach Lance Leipold applauds his team after a field goal during the first quarter on Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024 at Arrowhead Stadium.

With their backs against the wall, the Jayhawks have won three consecutive games against ranked opponents — all in highly cathartic fashion — to preserve what once seemed like the faintest possible hope of bowl eligibility.

“We’ll see how it all finishes up, but I feel like at the end of the day, it’ll be one of the most rewarding seasons ever, just considering a month ago kind of where it was at,” Kansas defensive coordinator Brian Borland said. “Really a great testament to our players.”

Needing one more victory to set itself up for a spot in the postseason, KU can’t afford to underestimate its final opponent, Baylor, just because it doesn’t boast a number next to its name like Kansas State, Iowa State, BYU or Colorado did.

“We have to prevent any letdown in that, because as we said we’re playing a pretty hot football team and a very good football team,” head coach Lance Leipold said on Monday. “Being able to handle some success, handle the emotions and the physicality that’s gone into these games will be a big challenge for us.”

Added Borland: “I don’t feel like we feel like we’ve arrived. I would always challenge guys: ‘Hey, you’ve never arrived. There’s always more.’ And to come this far and then not finish it the way it needs to be finished would be poor. So I think guys understand that.”

As much as KU’s three-game winning streak has prompted speculation among fans and national media about whether the Jayhawks could somehow be the best team in the Big 12 Conference right now, the Bears have been dominant in their own right in recent weeks. After early-season losses to the three teams KU just beat, Baylor has flipped the script, defeating Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia and most recently Houston in succession.

Since the start of October, Baylor is sixth in the nation in yards per play (6.81) and eighth in points per game (40.8). Redshirt freshman running back Bryson Washington is averaging about 90 yards and a touchdown per game after missing the start of the year due to injury, with Dawson Pendergrass as a complementary piece, and quarterback Sawyer Robertson didn’t begin the year as the starter either but is fourth in the Big 12 with 22 passing touchdowns. Robertson has spread the ball around, but Leipold highlighted Ole Miss transfer Michael Trigg as “as good a receiving tight end as I think we’ve gone against athletically.”

“They’re playing extremely well, they made a change at quarterback earlier in the year and it’s really paid off for them offensively,” Leipold said. “They found a rhythm, they’re well balanced, they’re physical, big upfront. They got a lot of weapons.”

On defense, linebackers Keaton Thomas (100 tackles) and Matt Jones (94) are among the league leaders in tackling for a unit that, as a whole, ranks around the middle of the league in most categories, not far from KU. Baylor head coach Dave Aranda took over defensive play-calling responsibilities this season and has put his own stamp on the unit.

“Now when I turn the tape on I see more of his influence on it,” said KU offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes, Aranda’s former OC at Baylor, “just the consistency and alignments, knowledge of the scheme, players being in the right place at the right time, understanding their responsibilities, playing with really, really sound technique, but there are also some things that are different.”

The Jayhawks certainly have Aranda and the Bears’ attention.

“Right now this is the best team we’ve played,” Aranda said. “Our guys feel that way when they watch it, and so it demands attention.”

One win would bring KU to a third straight bowl game for the first time in program history.

“I think it’s going to be a real hard-nosed game this week,” senior tight end Trevor Kardell said, “but I think if we (do) what we’ve been doing the past couple weeks and trusting the game plan, trusting the guy to our right and to our left, I think you’ll be seeing us in December.”

Baylor Bears (7-4, 5-3 Big 12) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (5-6, 4-4 Big 12)

• McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas, 11 a.m.

• Broadcast: ESPN2

• Radio: Jayhawk Radio Network (in Lawrence, KLWN AM 1320 / K269GB FM 101.7 / KKSW FM 105.9)

• Betting line: KU -1.5; over/under 61.5

• Series history: Baylor leads 18-4

Keep an eye out

1. Grimes Bowl, Part II: As much of a personal connection as Grimes had to BYU, his ties to Baylor are far more current. Grimes served as the Bears’ OC as recently as last year, but Aranda replaced him with Jake Spavital. Grimes then came to KU and brought analysts Tyler Bolfing and AJ Steward. In addition, Grimes’ son Garrison is Baylor’s long snapper, and will be going through senior day (his younger son Greydon is a freshman offensive lineman for KU). Grimes said it would be an emotional day and “unique for me being there as a dad. I don’t know, (they’ll) probably boo me when I go out for my son’s introduction.” On the field, Leipold said both teams are far enough into the season to have created their own distinct identities since Grimes’ departure.

2. Baylor’s bad tackling: Aranda emphasized this week, “If we tackle like how we’ve tackled, we’re not going to win the game,” citing the ability KU running back Devin Neal demonstrated to make defenders miss in close quarters against Colorado. Indeed, Neal forced eight missed tackles on his own, and 139 of his 207 rushing yards came after contact. Meanwhile, the Bears have put up tackling grades of 57.5 or less in each of their last four games, averaging 16 missed tackles per contest, per PFF.

3. Punt disparity: If this game turns into a battle of field position, it might favor Baylor. Palmer Williams has the highest per-punt average in the Big 12 and has 20 punts of 50-plus yards this season, while KU’s net yardage per punt of 35.5 is worst in the league. Also, the Bears haven’t taken back a punt for a score but are still averaging a conference-best 20.7 yards per return.

Spotlight on…

Sevion Morrison: With Daniel Hishaw Jr. away from the team due to a family matter, his rarely used classmate Morrison has gotten more action than ever before. His 11 carries against Colorado were the highest single-game total in his five-year career between Nebraska and KU. If Grimes plans on another heavy dose of Neal like he deployed against CU, Morrison’s role spelling Neal will be pivotal.

Inside the numbers

114: The number of snaps this season for backup tackle Calvin Clements, who despite not having a rotational role for most of the year has frequently been called upon to spell injured teammates. He may be in line for his first start if Logan Brown can’t go this week, after KU started the same five linemen in each of its first 11 games.

57: Total yards for the typically explosive Baylor offense in the second half of its 20-10 victory over Houston last week.

6: The total number of sacks for high-motor KU defensive end Dean Miller, who has tallied 4.5 of his sacks since the Jayhawks’ first bye week, and also Miller’s ranking in the Big 12 Conference in that category.

Prediction

KU wins 31-24. The last three weeks have made it clear that picking against the Jayhawks is an exceptionally poor idea — even when it comes to beating teams they have struggled to beat in the past. Rather than suffering an emotional letdown after a string of success, the 38 players who went through senior day last week will understand what’s at stake for KU and leave it all out on the field at McLane Stadium to clinch bowl eligibility.

Sports reporter David Rodish contributed to this story.