Lawrence’s spring real estate market is a bit like my lawn this season: There are a few dandelions out there, but you still can convince yourself that those are just pretty flowers.

The most recent report from the Lawrence Board of Realtors confirms a trend that has been developing over the last few months: Home sales in Lawrence are on the decline. Home sales in April, usually one of the busier months of the year, were down 12.6 percent compared with the same period a year ago.

The latest numbers pushed the year-to-date numbers further into negative territory. For the year, home sales are down 6.8 percent, totaling 247 compared with 265 through April 2013.

But as I frequently tell my neighbor, you have to keep these dandelions in perspective. Lawrence’s housing market is still performing significantly better than it did in 2012, and it is much healthier than it was during the dark days following the housing bubble. Home sales in 2014 are about 25 percent higher than they were at this point in 2012.

But sales will have to pick up in a hurry if Lawrence is to post its third straight year of increasing home sales, after hitting bottom in 2011. A similar theme is being struck across the country. After gaining strength in recent years, U.S. home sales began to slow in mid-2013. Economists, ever the two-handed beasts, are split on where sales are headed in the future.

Susan Bonham, president of the Lawrence Board of Realtors, said the local market is mixed right now. She said homes in the $100,000 to $300,000 range are still selling reasonably well, but homes outside that price range have struggled.

The latest numbers do create a couple of questions about what lies ahead, particularly when it comes to home prices and the amount of new home construction.

With four months in the books, the median selling price of homes in Lawrence is down about 5 percent to $159,000. These numbers are tough to interpret. It could mean that buyers are simply interested in different types and sizes of houses than they have been in the past, or it could mean that housing prices in general are starting to fall in the city. It is an issue to keep an eye on.

Lawrence homebuilders also will be keeping a close eye on the demand for new houses in the city. Thus far, it has been a poor year in terms of people buying newly constructed homes. In fact, those may be the most disappointing numbers in the report. Through April, only 13 newly constructed homes have been sold. That’s down from 26 at the same point in 2013. It also is down from 17 sales at this point in 2012. Sales of newly constructed homes are important because they can provide a real boost to the local economy. Historically, some of Lawrence’s best economic years have come when builders are constructing a significant number of new homes.

Other numbers from the report included:

• The total dollar volume of homes sold in the Lawrence area is down 11.8 percent to $47.7 million.

• The number of homes on the market has grown slightly to 429, up from 418 at this point in 2013. The number is down significantly from the 613 listing in April 2012.

• The median number of days a home is on the market has fallen to 59, down from 65 a year earlier. Usually, such a decline would point to market where buyers are becoming more active.

• The number of pending contracts has fallen significantly from a year ago. At the end of April there were 199 pending contracts in the system, down nearly 20 percent from April 2013 totals. That may be an indicator that home sale numbers are unlikely to bounce back in the next month or two.

In other news and notes from around town:

• There is a set of new numbers that do point to a recovery of sorts in the Lawrence economy. Douglas County officials are in the process of tallying the assessed valuation for the city of Lawrence, meaning the taxable value of all property in the city limits.

The preliminary numbers show 2014 is set to post the largest increase since 2007. But be warned, that is a bit like me bragging that the brown spots in my yard are no longer toxic. (Long story, but as I’ve told the EPA, I really did think it was fertilizer in that bag.) The point is, assessed valuation growth in Lawrence has been pretty anemic since 2007. In fact in 2009, 2010, and 2012 it actually declined.

But the estimate for 2014 shows that it has increased by 1.6 percent. For comparison purposes, during the late 1990s and even into the early 2000s, the city was experiencing growth in its tax base 5 percent to 8 percent fairly regularly. But the 1.6 percent growth rate is welcome news at City Hall because if the tax base grows, the city’s property tax revenue automatically increases, unless the City Commission decides to reduce the property tax mill levy. In case you are wondering, I’ve seen no indication that a property tax mill levy reduction is in the offing for the city’s next budget.

The assessed valuation also is important to watch because it is a reasonable indicator of economic health. Tax bases usually grow either because property values are rising or significant new construction is occurring in the community. This latest increase likely is a result of a little bit of both.

• I don’t know about you, but I’m always looking for an opportunity to get out my chaps, my 10-gallon and my best rootin-tootin outfit. Perhaps we’ll all have an opportunity soon. I’ve been told by the Lawrence Convention and Visitors Bureau that Lawrence’s Old West and frontier history is going to be in the national spotlight.

True West magazine has chosen Lawrence as the community it will feature in its August 2014 edition. I don’t have details yet on exactly what elements of our history will be featured, but local tourism leaders are hopeful that recognition will spur some new visitors to check out the community. True West touts that it reaches about 300,000 “heritage travelers.”

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