Well, isn’t this just completely fitting?

Just when you start to think that the Big 12 Conference is making moves in the right direction regarding expansion, something pops up that completely calls into question what the conference is doing and now, if they’re not careful, the conference could have a heck of a problem on its hands.

That’s the gist of a report from Street and Smith’s Sports Business Journal that indicates that the powers that be at the Big 12’s television partners are not happy with where expansion might be headed.

Before we go any farther, let’s take a quick pause for a moment of honesty. Is anybody really happy about the direction of Big 12 expansion?

I mean, yeah, there appears to be more money to be made if the conference expands from 10 to 12, or even 14 (more on that in a moment), but it’s been well documented that the pool of candidates does not include the kind of knock-your-socks-off schools that would turn the concept of expanding from something that makes sense and seems fairly practical into something about which people — fans, players, coaches and administrators — would get excited.

And therein lies the issue that the conference’s TV partners have.

For those of you who have not been keeping up with this whole saga, there’s a clause in the Big 12’s media rights agreement that automatically creates higher revenue in the event of expansion. The clause is known as “pro rata” and could be worth as much as $80 million annually to the conference. Add to that number, what the Big 12 would gain in terms of revenue from a conference championship game (which will return in 2017), and you’re looking at a potential increase of $100 million annually for the Big 12.

Throw in the fact that the new members would not immediately pull in the same percentage as the existing members and you’re looking at quite a deal for the 10 schools that already call the Big 12 home.

That’s for now, though. The clause is written in plain English and, despite reports about ESPN and FOX pursuing legal action, I can’t really see any way of them getting out of it. Of course, I’m not a lawyer and I have not studied things that closely.

What I do know, however, is that while this could be a big time gain for the Big 12 in the short term, it could wind up being a nightmare in the long term. Let’s say the Big 12 goes through with expansion against the wishes of its TV partners, who do not deem any of the “available candidates” to be sexy enough to move the television ratings needle. That might deliver big time dough through 2025, but it also might deliver a heck of a chip on the shoulders of those media giants and when the grant of rights agreements expire and the Big 12 is back at the drawing board looking for stability and partnership well into the future those powerhouses might not be there.

It’s risky. And it’s precisely the reason Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby and other Big 12 brass are negotiating and trying to find a peaceful and profitable resolution for all parties.

Can they get there? The guess here is no. The make-up of these schools who are seeking admission into the Big 12 is not going to change and it would be a nightmare to even consider the idea of pulling in teams from another Power 5 conference — though, that idea is not entirely crazy.

My guess is that the TV muscle wins out this time but that the Big 12 gets some sort of quiet assurance — written or otherwise — that ESPN and FOX will be there, ready to re-sign, when the current deals expire.

If that’s the case, it probably goes down as a win for the conference, which misses out on the exciting headline grab that would come with announcing expansion but also gets long-term stability and continues to be able to spread the wealth among 10 members, an enviable position as long as the money continues to rise.