Entries from blogs tagged with “Kansas government”

New report shows state nearing budget deficit

A new analysis of the state's financial condition shows that if revenues hit the mark for the rest of this fiscal year, it will end the fiscal year on June 30 with only $5.6 million in its general fund.

But as anyone who has watched the monthly revenue reports knows, Kansas has only met the revenue estimates once in the last year, and many are expecting the estimates to be revised downward when the state's Consensus Revenue Estimating Group meets again in November.

The latest report, known as a "budget profile," was released this week from the Legislature's nonpartisan Research Department. It shows the state is expected to have almost $6.363 billion available to spend this year and a budget calling for $6.357 billion in spending.

That means that if revenues miss the mark again in September and October, the state will be confronting a budget deficit in its general fund, which is not allowed under Kansas law or the state Constitution. And if that were to happen, Gov. Sam Brownback would be under pressure to use his "allotment" authority to order even more spending cuts before the next Legislature convenes, and possibly before the November elections.

But Brownback's press secretary, Eileen Hawley, said there are no such plans in the works.

“The Governor will present his budget proposal to the Legislature when it returns in January,” Hawley said in an email Thursday.

Senate Democratic Leader Anthony Hensley, however, said that would present a difficult situation for the next Legislature, which is expected to have a large number of new members.

"It's very serious. It's a very dire situation, and it's going to take legislators who are willing to make tough choices if the governor isn't willing to lead," Hensley said.

The Kansas Department of Revenue is expected to announce September tax collections on Monday, Oct. 3. The Consensus Revenue Estimating Group is scheduled to publish its new, updated revenue forecasts on Thursday, Nov. 10, two days after the general election.

Reply 3 comments from Gee Hatt Michael Kaufman Michael Kort

Wyoming Gov. Mead tops ‘indifference’ rating in new poll; Kansas governor least popular

The website Morning Consult published results of a new 50-state poll on Tuesday, once again ranking the nation's governors according to their approval rating.

And yes, once again, Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback came out as the least popular governor in America. But that's happened so many times in recent months, it's hardly news anymore. But there's another interesting factoid in the polling results that, when you see it, really makes you wonder how that could happen and what it really means.

Remember that in these kinds of polls, respondents are typically given three options: they can either approve of the governor's performance; disapprove of the governor's performance; or — and this is the interesting one — they either don't know or have no opinion about the governor's performance.

If you go to the web page where the poll results are published, you can sort the results based on any of those three categories. And if you click on the "don't know/no opinion' category, you find that Wyoming Gov. Matt Mead has the highest, for lack of a better word, "indifference" rating of any governor in the United States.

Nearly one in four registered voters (24 percent) in Wyoming who were surveyed said they really didn't have much of an opinion one way or the other about Mead.

Overall, Mead ranked right in the middle of the pack in terms of popularity, with 52 percent approving of his performance (tied with New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan), but only 23 percent disapproving (tied with Texas Gov. Greg Abbott).

Mind you, Mead has been governor in Wyoming for the same length of time as Brownback. Both were elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2014. Mead is also a grandson of another former Wyoming governor and U.S. Senator, Clifford Hanson, so it's not like he's a stranger in political circles.

Mead, who is also a Republican, won his first race with 66 percent of the vote and with 59 percent in his re-election bid.

Wyoming has, in fact, had some of the same kinds of budget shortfalls that have beset the Brownback administration in Kansas. State government in Wyoming operates on a two-year budget of about $3 billion, and this year state revenues could fall $240 to $510 million short of projections, according to a press release from Mead's office.

But unlike Kansas, Wyoming is heavily dependent on revenues from the energy sector, and its problems are more related to downturns in the oil, gas and coal industries. And while Wyoming does have a huge "rainy day" fund for just such emergencies, Mead has nonetheless asked for some huge budget cuts that would be highly controversial in other states.

There are some who argue that's a sign of success. After serving six years as Wyoming's chief executive, apparently he hasn't messed anything up so badly that it has caused huge numbers of people to dislike him. Sometimes in government, "not messing up" can be an ambitious goal.

Another theory is that the nature of Wyoming itself keeps state government out of the news. Wyoming covers more square miles than Kansas but has roughly the population of Johnson County. The people are so spread out, one colleague who used to work there said, there's just a lot more passion and interest in local politics than in state government.

But Mead's press secretary David Bush probably had the most plausible theory: It was a small-sample poll among only 127 respondents in Wyoming, leaving a margin of error of plus or minus 9 percentage points. Other recent polls with larger sample sizes have shown Mead's approval rating much higher, he said.

"That being said, Governor Mead is grateful for the support he receives from the people of Wyoming and continues to work hard on their behalf," Bush said.

Meanwhile, in case you're wondering, Gov. Brownback ranked 44th on the indifference scale. Only 6 percent of those polled in Kansas said they had no opinion about him.

Lowest on that scale was Republican Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, where all but 3 percent of those polled have at least formed an opinion of him.

Note: This story has been updated from an earlier version to include comments from Gov. Mead's spokesman.

Reply 4 comments from Barb Gordon beth newman Steve Jacob Foodboy

In new digital ad, Holland ‘takes aim’ at Brownback’s policies

Some people may have noticed that the use of firearms in political campaign ads has been on the rise the last few election cycles.

In 2010, a Senate candidate in West Virginia ran an ad in which he shot a hole through a climate change bill, making a metaphorical point about his opposition to environmental regulations and a literal point abut his support for Second Amendment gun rights.

And this year, Missouri gubernatorial candidate Eric Greitens fires off an actual machine gun on camera to show that when he fights back, against things like Obamacare, he "brings out the big guns."

To date, it's safe to say, nearly all such ads have been run by conservative Republicans. But this year, state Sen. Tom Holland, D-Baldwin City, has rolled out a new digital ad in which he fires off a shotgun, not once but three times, to demonstrate how he "takes aim" at Republican Gov. Sam Brownback's policies.

There are a couple of interesting aspects to the ad, starting with the fact that it's currently being distributed only through social media, via his Facebook and Twitter accounts — another growing trend in campaign advertising. Holland said it may air on cable networks in the district later in the cycle.

Second, it would appear in the ad that Holland actually hits three clay pigeons in a row in the span of about 30 seconds. There are no jump cuts or visible signs of editing or digital enhancement.

"I really hit all three birds in one take, no digital enhancements really," Holland said in an email when asked to verify that fact. "There were a few takes, however."

Finally, though, the ad makes no mention of his opponent, or even the fact that he has one. Her name, by the way, is Echo Van Meteren of Linwood. She hasn't yet joined the ad wars, although it's a virtual certainty that she will, since she's married to a principal in one of the leading GOP consulting and PR firms in Kansas, Singularis Group.

Instead, Holland's ad tries to convey the message that the election is all about Brownback, which has been a consistent message among most Democratic candidates in Kansas this year.

But Holland could be wandering into treacherous waters with a gun ad since another significant issue this year, especially in college communities like Lawrence, is the state's new concealed carry gun law, and the mandate that public colleges and universities allow concealed carry on campus beginning July 1 next year.

Given that, it may be unlikely we'll see too many more ads from Democrats in Kansas this year touting their marksmanship skills in campaign ads.

Reply 1 comment from Melinda Henderson

New 50-state polls show Trump ahead in Kansas but Clinton winning overall

Two recent 50-state polls show Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump with a big lead in Kansas but Democrat Hillary Clinton with a significant lead in electoral votes nationwide.

But Trump’s numbers in Kansas are far below what previous GOP candidates have received here, while Clinton’s numbers are about average for a Democrat in the Sunflower State.

The polls were conducted in August by the Washington Post and Morning Consult. Results of each were released this week.

The Washington Post poll said if the election were held today in Kansas, Trump would beat Clinton 49-37 percent, with 14 percent undecided.

But Clinton showed up well ahead of Trump in the battle for electoral votes, 244-126, with 168 electoral votes hanging in tossup states. It takes 270 electoral votes to win.

In the last five presidential elections, Republican candidates have averaged 58 percent of the vote in Kansas while Democrats have averaged 38 percent.

The Post poll was an online survey of 74,886 registered voters in the United States, including 741 registered voters in Kansas. Responses were gathered using the SurveyMonkey polling platform, and responses were weighted to match the demographics of each state. It did not report a margin of error because that is a statistical property that only applies to random sample surveys.

The Post survey also showed widespread dissatisfaction among Kansans for both major candidates, with a vast majority saying they believe the nation’s well-being will be worse in the future no matter which candidate wins. Sixty-six percent said that about a potential Clinton presidency; 57 percent said that about a Trump presidency.

The Morning Consult poll showed much the same pattern, although it estimated that Clinton would get 321 electoral votes if the election were held today, more than enough electoral votes to win the race.

In Kansas, though, it showed Trump has widened his lead since Morning Consult conducted a similar poll in July. Then, Trump led Clinton by 11 points, 46-35 percent. The July poll showed that lead has grown to 18 points, 49-31 percent.

Nationally, the Morning Consult poll showed Clinton’s lead widening in the Electoral College, mainly due to Trump’s support slipping in states like Arizona, which is now considered a tossup, and Ohio, which has shifted from tossup into the Clinton column.

Both polls show that adding third-party candidates into the polling mix changes the numbers somewhat, but doesn’t really affect the trends overall.

The Morning Consult poll included responses from about 18,000 voters nationally. It then used statistical modeling to calculate state-level results from the national data.

In Kansas, both Trump’s and Clinton’s numbers fall 6 or 7 percentage points when the names of Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are added to the polling question. In that four-way matchup, Johnson shows up at 17 percent while Stein gets about 4 percent. But political experts note that third-party candidates always show up better in pre-election polls than they do when actual votes are counted on Election Day.

Both Johnson and Stein were their respective party nominees in 2012. Johnson ended up with only 1.7 percent of the vote, and Stein barely registered a blip on the radar screen, getting only 714 ballots total.

Kansas does not officially recognize the Green Party, so Stein’s name will appear on the Kansas ballot as an independent.

Reply 9 comments from Barb Gordon Bob Smith Fred Whitehead Jr. Bucky Chow To Sides

Kansas school funding and the definition of ‘classroom’ spending

TOPEKA — As school officials, lawmakers and Gov. Sam Brownback’s administration open discussions about writing a new school finance formula, expect to hear a lot of discussion about “putting money in the classroom.”

This has been a long-running debate whenever people talk about how much Kansas does or doesn’t spend on schools, and how much additional money is or isn’t needed to keep up with rising costs.

Conservative groups in particular like to emphasize “classroom” spending, also referred to as “instructional” spending to distinguish it from things like the high salaries of administrators, or bond and interest costs to pay for football stadiums and basketball arenas.

The subject came up almost immediately Wednesday when Brownback held a news conference with Education Commissioner Randy Watson and Kansas State Board of Education Chairman Jim McNiece.

First, there was Brownback reading some prepared opening remarks that touched on some broad, unifying themes about focusing on the needs of individual students and the challenge of preparing them for success, “in an increasingly competitive world.”

But then he added: “A new funding system must increase the percentage of state funding that gets to the classroom.”

A few minutes later, McNiece talked about the state board’s new “vision” for Kansas schools, which puts a lot more emphasis on the needs of individual students. More specifically, it suggests a larger role in the future for guidance counselors, social workers and other kinds of professionals to help students and their parents chart their own educational path, geared toward their own unique needs, interests and college or career plans.

What might have escaped most observers’ notice is that those two sets of ambitions are almost diametrically opposed to one another. That’s because, under standard definitions used in both state and federal education agencies, guidance counselors, social workers and a whole host of other services that schools provide to students don’t count as “instructional” programming.

Instructional services under those definitions include only the cost of teachers, teachers’ aides, clerks and graders, and equipment that assists in the instructional process.

Counselors and social workers, however, are in a whole other category of “student support services.” Also in that category are school nurses and other health aides, speech pathologists, audiologists and substance abuse counselors.

School library and media services are in yet another category of “instructional support services.”

That’s why, when looking at budget summaries for the Lawrence school district, for example, the official tables show only 57 percent of all the money the district spent from its general fund and local option budget last year went for “instruction,” while Kansas statutes express a policy “goal” that at least 65 percent of the money go toward instruction.

McNiece bristled when asked during the news conference how the board plans to sell its new "Kansas Can" vision to the Legislature during discussions about a new finance formula.

“You’re talking to a former high school principal who lived this every day,” McNiece said. “I would tell people this for years, and not to be argumentative, but everything goes to the classroom. Everything touches the classroom. We don’t do anything in the schools that doesn’t touch the classroom.”

McNiece said he personally would like to rewrite the definition of instructional spending to include more kinds of services. It’s something that the Kansas Association of School Boards and other organizations have suggested as well.

That’s not likely to happen anytime soon, however, because those definitions were developed by the U.S. Department of Education, and they are used by everybody, from the Census Bureau down to local units of government, as a standard way of measuring and comparing education cost figures nationwide.

That means they will also be used in political debates by groups fighting over how much money to spend on education, and where to spend it. And the public will just need to know what the words actually mean when they're used in those debates.

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As Paul Davis stumps for fellow Democrats this year, speculation swirls about his plans for 2018

Former Rep. Paul Davis has been showing up a lot at political events throughout Kansas this summer.

Just in recent weeks, he has spoken at events in Wichita and in southwest Kansas. He was with the Kansas delegation at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia last month. And he has more events planned in the coming weeks in southeast Kansas.

His name and face also show up frequently in Democratic Party fundraising emails, all of which have led many people to wonder if he isn't lining up another bid for governor in 2018.

In fact, some party insiders have said privately that they have no doubt Davis is at least eying the 2018 race.

Wednesday night, Davis was stumping in Lawrence where a dozen or so people showed up to meet, and write checks for, 2nd District congressional candidate Britani Potter, who is challenging incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Lynn Jenkins.

During a brief interview there, Davis would only say he's not thinking about the 2018 gubernatorial race, at least not yet.

Former Rep. Paul Davis, left, has been stumping for Democratic candidates throughout Kansas this year, leading some to speculate he may be weighing another bid for governor in 2018. Potter was accompanied at the event by her son Reiden and her husband David.

Former Rep. Paul Davis, left, has been stumping for Democratic candidates throughout Kansas this year, leading some to speculate he may be weighing another bid for governor in 2018. Potter was accompanied at the event by her son Reiden and her husband David. by Peter Hancock

"We'll think about the future at another point in time," he said. "But I'm still very concerned about the direction the state's going, and I think we have an opportunity to restore some much-needed common sense to the Legislature. That's why I've been as active as I have, trying to help candidates out there. I'm not doing it for my own reasons. I'm doing it because I think it's the best way we can bring about change in this state."

It has been nearly two years since Davis, the former Kansas House Minority Leader, lost the gubernatorial race to incumbent Republican Gov. Sam Brownback.

It was a loss that still stings for many Democrats. With Brownback's disapproval rating hovering above 50 percent at the time, polls showed Davis ahead throughout most of the race, until the final weeks when Brownback's campaign launched a barrage of negative TV ads against Davis.

Some have also suggested that Brownback was helped by a flood of money from national Republican groups who helped save U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts' struggling re-election campaign that same year.

Davis said he’s had a lot of time to think about what happened in 2014.

“You learn a lot when you run an unsuccessful campaign,” he said. “When you are successful in a campaign, you think you did everything right, and you probably did a number of things wrong. When you are not successful, you tend to take some more time to analyze what all happened.”

“We certainly were swimming upstream in a tough political year across the country, in particular in a red state like Kansas,” he said.

But Democrats also lost five more seats in the Kansas House in 2014, leaving them with only 27. And after losing every statewide and congressional race in each of the last three election cycles, they don't have a deep bench from which to find another viable candidate for governor.

Republicans, however, have a wealth of political talent on their bench. So far, most of the speculation has focused on Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Attorney General Derek Schmidt, both of whom have been elected to statewide offices twice.

And there continues to be talk about U.S. Rep. Lynn Jenkins, the 2nd District congresswoman whom Potter would like to beat this year. But it's considered a long-shot race at best. Meanwhile, Jenkins recently set up her own state-based political action committee to help fellow Republicans win state legislative races.

Davis acknowledged that the Kansas Democratic Party has a lot of work to do if it hopes to rebuild its own strength in the Legislature, which is often the place where candidates for higher office are groomed.

Specifically, he said Democrats have good chances in some southeast Kansas districts, an area of the state where Democrats once were quite strong. And he said southwest Kansas, with its rapidly growing Latino population, could become competitive in the near future.

“You have a number of legislative districts there that are majority-minority districts,” he said, referring to districts where a majority of the voting-age population are non-white, and therefore statistically more likely than not to vote Democratic. “People just need to be engaged by people who are running for office and engaged by political parties.”

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Poll depicts disengaged voters in one Senate district

A Democratic candidate running for a state Senate seat in Johnson County released a poll this week purporting to show her ahead by three points over the Republican incumbent. But the poll can also be read as suggesting there are a lot of voters in Kansas who simply don't eat, breathe and drink politics the way others do.

Vicki Hiatt is challenging Sen. Mary Pilcher-Cook, R-Shawnee, in the 10th District of northeast Johnson County. The poll was conducted by a national Democratic firm, North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling, and the top-line numbers show Hiatt ahead, 43-40 percent, with 17 percent not sure.

The survey of 500 voters in the district was conducted Aug. 9-21. The material Hiatt released did not report a margin of error, but a poll of that size would typically be accurate within 4.5 percentage points in either direction, which would make the race a statistical dead heat.

There are several lists floating around in political and media circles that identify Senate districts where Democrats stand a fighting chance of taking seats away from Republicans. Most of those stop short of including the 10th District, which Pilcher-Cook won with 58 percent of the vote in 2012, and 55 percent in 2008.

But a look at some of the other numbers Hiatt released to the media paint an interesting picture of the voters in that district, one that is probably not very different from voters in any other district.

For example, only 30 percent of the people surveyed said they have a favorable opinion of Pilcher-Cook while 33 percent have an unfavorable opinion, and 37 percent said they weren't sure.

People can say what they will about Pilcher-Cook, but it's hard to imagine anyone who knows her not having an opinion one way or the other. She is a two-term incumbent and, some would say, quite possibly the most polarizing figure in the Kansas Senate.

One of her most notable acts in the Senate came in 2014 when she used her Public Health and Welfare Committee to conduct live ultrasounds of pregnant women on the anniversary of Roe v. Wade, the landmark Supreme Court decision that legalized abortion nationwide. She later lost her chairmanship of that committee amid a political fight this year with Senate President Susan Wagle.

Pilcher-Cook was also the only member of the Kansas Senate to vote no on a school funding bill during the special session in June that ultimately prevented the Kansas Supreme Court from closing public schools this year.

But if people in the 10th District don't know much about Pilcher-Cook, they apparently know even less about Vicki Hiatt: 79 percent of those surveyed said they didn't know enough about Hiatt to form an opinion of her.

Possibly the most interesting number from the poll, though, concerned the last presidential race in 2012. These questions fascinate political scientists who use the term "retrospective voting" because it asks people to think back and recall whom they voted for in some past election.

True to form, 11 percent of the people in this poll said they couldn't remember whom they voted for in the last presidential race; only 49 percent of those surveyed said they voted for Republican Mitt Romney, and 40 percent said they voted for President Barack Obama.

Those numbers are particularly odd because Romney carried the 10th District, 57-41 percent over Obama, so either PPP under-sampled Republican voters (which the firm is not known for doing), or a whole lot of people who claim to remember how they voted really don't remember.

"Another reminder that politics doesn't matter that much to some people, even some who vote," said University of Kansas political science professor Patrick Miller. "Another thing that you tend to see is that people tend to over-report voting for the winner, even in states that the winner lost."

Looking ahead to this year's presidential race, however, the PPP survey showed there is reason to think Republican candidates could under-perform in the 10th District. It shows Republican Donald Trump ahead of Democrat Hillary Clinton in the district, but only by six points, 45-39 percent.

Looking at past presidential races, any given Democrat can win 40 percent of the vote in the 10th District. That's also generally true of Kansas as a whole. But each of the last two Republican candidates won more than 50 percent in the 10th District: 57 percent for Romney; 53 percent for Sen. John McCain in 2008.

In presidential election years, the top of the ballot is what drives voter turnout. So the fact that Trump is polling at just 45 percent in the district, while Clinton is showing up about as expected, could indicate that GOP voters there aren't terribly excited about this election.

If that trend holds through November, it would not be helpful for other Republican candidates like Pilcher-Cook further down the ballot.

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A grandmother’s memory of the first women’s vote

On this day in 1920, women in the United States finally received the right to vote nationwide. That was the day that Tennessee, by a narrow vote of its Legislature, became the 36th state to ratify the 19th amendment that put universal women's suffrage into the U.S. Constitution.

In Kansas, of course, women had been voting for some time already. But that wasn't the case in most other states, including Illinois, where my grandmother, just 19 years old at the time, witnessed this monumental change political culture first-hand during the fall elections of 1920, the first elections in which women had a constitutional right to vote.

Ellen Gillespie grew up in Cantrall, Ill., a small coal mining town just north of Springfield. It was populated then mainly by the families of Irish and Polish immigrants, many of whom had come to central Illinois by way of Pennsylvania. In the years that followed, she would often tell the story of that election, and how the women of Cantrall reacted.

My mother, Ellen's daughter, recounted that story recently in a family email, mainly for the benefit of Ellen's millennial generation great-grandchildren who are too far removed from that time to fully appreciate its significance. With her permission, I'll let Mom tell it from here:

The first time an election occurred when women could vote, my mother was not yet eligible. But she recalled the whole day vividly.

On this first Election day since the adoption of the 19th Amendment, the women of Cantrall — mostly wives and / or daughters of coal-miners — gathered together at one woman's home and spent the afternoon there, drinking tea and supporting one another. They did this because they did not feel comfortable going to vote individually. They wondered if they might get "hassled" or perhaps might run into some complication they wouldn't understand. So they gathered.

Toward the end of the afternoon they proceeded en masse to the polling place. I am not sure where it was located in Cantrall. The grade school? A church? The town jail? (Never used for jailing anyone, ever — but quite handy for miscellaneous gatherings, even wedding receptions!) They all voted with no problem. And thereby accomplished a shared goal. I have to admit my jaw dropped and I said "Whaaaaaatttt???" when Mom told me this part. Using the force of their numbers these Irish Catholic women were able to accomplish this goal: they elect, for the very first time ever in their town, a Catholic man to be a member of the school board.

There isn't much left of Cantrall anymore. The coal mines shut down decades ago, and only about 140 people live there today. It does still have an elementary and middle school, though, and I would like to think it's no longer considered revolutionary if one or two of the school board members happen to be Catholic.

The story does illustrate, however, just how much has changed in America during the span of just a few generations. Ellen Gillespie was born at the dawn of a new century, and she almost lived long enough to see the dawn of the next one. The cultural, political and technological advances that happened during her lifetime are too numerous to count.

She did live long enough to see a Catholic man elected president, but not long enough to see an African-American man do the same. And it's hard to know how she would have reacted to the news of a woman being a major party nominee for president. I suspect she would have been disappointed that it took so long.

It's also hard to imagine how any of those changes would have been possible if this country had continued to deny more than half of its citizens the right to be full participants in its democracy and its workforce. And that's something worth celebrating on this anniversary of universal women's suffrage in America.

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Trump campaign launches Kansas operation

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has begun putting a field operation together in Kansas, hiring a full-time state coordinator and opening an office in Wichita to coordinate his Kansas campaign.

"Trump Team Kansas" sent out emails Wednesday providing contact information and soliciting volunteers to help with the campaign.

Kansas GOP executive director Clay Barker confirmed Wednesday that Carly Couture has been hired to lead the Kansas campaign. She is the wife of former state Rep. Travis Couture-Lovelady, R-Palco, who resigned this year to take a job as a lobbyist for the National Rifle Association.

Couture did not return phone calls Wednesday, but Barker said she had been hired within the last week and would be setting up operations at a state party office in Wichita. He also said that, in an unusual move, the Trump campaign itself would be supplying the office with yard signs, bumper stickers and other campaign material to distribute.

"Mitt Romney and John McCain didn't do that," Barker said, referring to the 2012 and 2008 GOP presidential candidates. "That was all decided a while ago."

Wednesday's email in Kansas came out the day after Trump overhauled his national campaign staff by demoting campaign manager Paul Manafort while naming Breitbart News executive Stephen Bannon and GOP pollster Kellyanne Conway to top positions.

But Barker said the effort to hire a Kansas campaign coordinator had been in the works for weeks before those changes.

Although the Trump campaign has been struggling nationally, especially in the wake of a series of campaign gaffes that led up to the staff shakeup, he is still heavily favored to win Kansas, which has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964.

"I haven’t quite figured out his support in Kansas, but at the (party headquarters) office we’re getting far more phone calls than we normally get this early from people wanting yard signs and stuff right now," Barker said. "He has some hard-core supporters."

Kansas Democrats, however, are hopeful that Hillary Clinton will at least do well in the 3rd Congressional District of suburban Kansas City. That's a district heavily populated with the kind of upper-income, college-educated voters that Trump has had a particularly difficult time attracting.

The 3rd District is also the last congressional district in Kansas to have elected a Democrat. That was former U.S. Rep. Dennis Moore, who served six terms before stepping down in 2010 for health reasons. He was succeeded by Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder, who Democrats believe could be vulnerable, either this year or in 2018.

The Clinton campaign has had a state organization in place since late June. Andrea Johnson, a native Kansan who has worked on several Democratic campaigns around the country, is serving as Clinton's state director in Kansas, working out of the Kansas Democratic Party's headquarters in Topeka.

Reply 2 comments from Richard Aronoff Fred Whitehead Jr.

As dust from primaries settles, depth of conservative losses sets in

TOPEKA — Conservative Republicans in Kansas legislative races suffered heavy losses in Tuesday’s primaries, and if the trends continue through November, they may be in danger of losing effective control of the House and Senate.

That was the assessment Wednesday morning when the full picture of Tuesday’s election results came into focus.

All told, conservatives lost between six and eight seats in the Kansas Senate, depending on how one scores a candidate as moderate or conservative, and between 10 and 13 seats in the Kansas House.

Going into the primaries, many Democrats and moderate Republicans hoped this year’s elections would be a referendum on Gov. Sam Brownback and his conservative allies in the Legislature who have reshaped state government in Kansas for the last six years.

Few people expected that moderates could win enough votes to take over the caucus and elect their own leadership teams. And almost nobody expected them to win enough seats in the Senate to change the balance of power there.

But moderates hoped to win enough seats in the House that, when combined with expected Democratic gains in November, they could put back together the kind of working majorities they had before Brownback’s election.

What happened Tuesday, however, exceeded nearly everyone’s expectations, and may have put conservatives in danger of losing control of both chambers.

“I always thought the numbers were there but I wasn't expecting this kind of sweep,” University of Kansas political science professor Patrick Miller said. “I think that whatever gains the Democrats make will determine the difference between moderates having a "legislative veto" by voting with the Democrats to stop legislation Brownback supports versus moderates actually being able to elect leadership and control the agenda.”

Currently, Republicans hold 32 of the 40 seats in the Senate. And of the 32 Republicans, roughly 28 or 29 of them would be classified as “conservative,” depending on the issue.

The six to eight losses they suffered to moderates on Tuesday drops that number down to between 21 and 23. That means if Democrats can pick up a handful more in November, the conservative block in the Senate would no longer have its own majority.

“Most Democratic gains would come at the expense of Brownback Republicans, so that would change the math in the Republican caucuses on leadership votes,” Miller said.

Much of the damage occurred in Johnson County where moderate groups motivated primarily around the issue of public school funding backed candidates who took down two conservative senators, Jeff Melcher and Greg Smith, and four conservative House members: Craig McPherson; Brett Hildabrand; Rob Bruchman and Jerry Lunn.

But the anti-conservative wave extended far beyond Johnson County, even as far as southwest Kansas where Sen. Larry Powell was ousted by a moderate, Rep. John Doll, both of Garden City.

Perhaps the biggest upset was in Reno County where Senate Majority Leader Terry Bruce of Nickerson was ousted from his seat by Edwin E. Berger.

Other conservative victims of Tuesday’s primaries included Sens. Tom Arpke of Salina, and Forrest Knox of Altoona.

Moderates also made gains in open Senate seats that are being vacated by conservatives who are retiring. In southeast Kansas, for example, where Senate Vice President Jeff King of Independence stepped down, Dan Goddard, a retired businessman and former Parsons city commissioner, edged out Rep. Virgil Peck of Tyro.

Senate Democratic Leader Anthony Hensley called Tuesday’s results “a repudiation of Brownback and his policies.

“This was very evident in the defeat of Republican incumbent Senators, including the Senate Majority Leader, who have rubber-stamped his agenda over the past six years,” Hensley said.

For his part, though, Brownback did not view Tuesday’s primary vote as a referendum on him or his administration. Instead, he saw it as part of a larger national trend.

“Kansas is not immune from the wide-spread anti-incumbency sentiment we have seen across the nation this election season,” his spokeswoman Eileen Hawley said. “Governor Brownback looks forward to working with strong Republican majorities in the legislature to make Kansas the best place in America to raise a family and grow a business.”

But Senate President Susan Wagle, R-Wichita, took a subtle dig at Brownback, suggesting the public was not satisfied with his performance.

“Too many Kansans still feel that the sun is not rising for them and their families, despite what some leaders tell them,” Wagle said, referencing a slogan used frequently in Brownback’s own 2014 re-election campaign.

She also said she is confident that going into the general elections, “Republicans will unite this fall to keep Kansas conservative.”

Reply 6 comments from Darrel Leach Carolyn Simpson Bob Forer Dorothy Hoyt-Reed Tim Foley Chase Blackwood

Polls closed in Kansas primary elections; check here for latest results

9 p.m. update - 92 of 97 precincts:

42nd House District - Republican primary (Douglas County only; 4 of 4 precincts):

Rep. Connie O'Brien, 45 percent; Jim Karleskint, 55 percent

44th House District - Democratic primary, 16 of 16 precincts:

Rep. Barbara Ballard, 82 percent; Steven X. Davis, 18 percent

45th House District - Republican primary, 31 of 31 precincts:

Rep. Tom Sloan, 70 percent; Jeremy Ryan Pierce, 30 percent

Douglas County Commission, 3rd District - Democratic primary, 39 of 39 precincts:

Bassem Chahine, 54 percent; Jim Weaver, 46 percent

Douglas County Commission, 3rd District - Republican primary, 39 of 39 precincts:

Michelle Derusseau, 56 percent; Jim Denney, 44 percent


8:15 p.m. update — 23 of 97 precincts:

42nd House District - Republican primary (Douglas County only):

Rep. Connie O'Brien, 47 percent; Jim Karleskint, 53 percent

44th District - Democratic primary:

Rep. Barbara Ballard, 82 percent; Steven X. Davis, 18 percent

45th House District - Republican primary:

Rep. Tom Sloan, 67 percent; Jeremy Ryan Pierce, 33 percent

Douglas County Commission, 3rd District - Democratic primary:

Bassem Chahine, 53 percent; Jim Weaver, 47 percent

Douglas County Commission 3rd District - Republican primary:

Michelle Derusseau, 54 percent; Jim Denney, 46 percent


7:45 p.m. update — Advance ballots only:

42nd House District - Republican primary (Douglas County only):

Rep. Connie O'Brien, 58 percent; Jim Karleskint, 42 percent

44th House District - Democratic primary:

Rep. Barbara Ballard, 79 percent; Steven X. Davis, 21 percent

45th House District - Republican primary:

Rep. Tom Sloan, 67 percent; Jeremy Ryan Pierce, 33 percent

Douglas County Commission, 3rd District - Republican primary:

Michelle Derusseau, 55 percent; Jim Denney, 45 percent


7:30 p.m. update:

Polls in Kansas closed at 7 p.m. as the state now waits to see whether there will be a significant shift in power at the Kansas Statehouse.

Much of the attention will be in the Kansas House where there are 39 Republican primaries, most of them pitting incumbent allies of Gov. Sam Brownback against moderate GOP challengers who hope to wrest control of the House away from conservatives.

Among them is the 42nd House District that includes parts of Leavenworth and Douglas Counties, including the city of Eudora, where Jim Karleskint, a former school superintendent, is challenging incumbent Rep. Connie O’Brien of Tonganoxie.

But a few incumbent moderates are also facing challenges this year, including Rep. Tom Sloan of Lawrence, who is being challenged for the second election in a row by conservative challenger Jeremy Ryan Pierce.

Meanwhile, there are 16 GOP primaries in the Kansas Senate, although it’s believed moderates have much less of a chance of winning control of that chamber.

Much of the attention will be focused on races in Johnson County where two conservatives, Sen. Jeff Melcher of Leawood and Sen. Greg Smith of Overland Park, face tough challenges.

The election is being conducted under unique circumstances this year after a Shawnee County judge on Friday issued a temporary injunction blocking the state from strictly enforcing its law requiring documentary proof of citizenship in order for voters to register.

The order means that an estimated 17,500 voters statewide — including about 800 in Douglas County — were allowed to cast ballots in all races, not just in federal races as Secretary of State Kris Kobach had initially planned.

Those are voters who registered at motor vehicle offices when renewing their drivers licenses, or by filling out federal mail-in cards before a federal agency agreed in February to change the cards used in Kansas to require citizenship proof.

But those voters are still required to cast provisional ballots, which are set aside on election night and not counted until county Boards of Canvassers meet next week to certify the elections.

That could delay declaring a winner in very close races where those provisional ballots could determine the winner.


Original post, 1:36 p.m.

There were a few hiccups Tuesday morning when polls opened for state legislative and county primaries, but Douglas County Clerk Jamie Shew said they had little significance.

The problem was with scanning machines that read the bar codes on the backs of driver's licenses. Those scanners, which recognize the person's name and address, connect to electronic poll books that verify that the person is a registered voter and is voting at the correct polling place.

Larry Maxey, left, and Verna Froese, of Lawrence, cast ballots at the Carnegie Building, 200 W. Ninth St., for the primary elections on Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2016.

Larry Maxey, left, and Verna Froese, of Lawrence, cast ballots at the Carnegie Building, 200 W. Ninth St., for the primary elections on Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2016. by Peter Hancock

"It took more than several minutes to manually enter the information to get a signature page to pop up for me to sign and the attendant to initial it," one voter wrote to the Journal-World early Tuesday morning. "This made me a little uncomfortable as it looked like I was trying to use a fake ID! My driver’s license is valid until July 2018, I have been a Kansas resident all my life, have a valid voter registration card, and vote in every election."

Shew confirmed that some scanners were having difficulty reading the bar codes on some licenses but that it should not interfere with anyone's ability to cast a ballot. He said the manual process serves as a backup to the electronic scanners, and going through that process does not mean voters have to cast a provisional ballot.

"We have also found if the birth date on the DL does not match the birth date on the voter registration it will not scan, so we do manual searches," he said. "Scanning the DL is not necessary, just a convenience to move the voter through the process faster."

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Kansas Chamber ‘thanks’ Huelskamp while not technically endorsing

The Kansas Chamber on Monday issued the closest thing it could to an endorsement of 1st District Congressman Tim Huelskamp.

"While the Kansas Chamber PAC does not endorse or contribute to candidates for federal office, we can certainly thank them for standing up for the Kansas business community and Kansas taxpayers," Chamber CEO Bill Pickert said in a statement released Friday.

Huelskamp, a three-term Republican from Fowler, is locked in a tight re-election bid against GOP primary challenger Roger Marshall, a Great Bend physician. Like Huelskamp, Marshall describes himself as a conservative who opposes abortion and many of the policies of Democratic President Barack Obama.

In this July 25, 2016 photo, U.S. Rep. Tim Huelskamp, R-Kan., speaks during a campaign town hall meeting at the headquarters of Patriot Outfitters, which sells firearms, accessories and hunting and military gear in St. Marys. Huelskamp is locked in a tough GOP primary race against Roger Marshall, a Great Bend obstetrician.

In this July 25, 2016 photo, U.S. Rep. Tim Huelskamp, R-Kan., speaks during a campaign town hall meeting at the headquarters of Patriot Outfitters, which sells firearms, accessories and hunting and military gear in St. Marys. Huelskamp is locked in a tough GOP primary race against Roger Marshall, a Great Bend obstetrician.

But Huelskamp has angered many of the traditional farm interest groups in western Kansas, first for being removed from the House Agriculture Committee amid a political dispute with then-House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and then for voting against the Farm Bill.

As a result, Marshall has garnered endorsements from leading agricultural interest groups, including the Kansas Farm Bureau, Kansas Livestock Association and others.

The Kansas Chamber is a state-level political action committee but is not registered with the Federal Election Committee to make contributions in federal races. Nevertheless, it issued what might be called a glowing "statement of support" saying "Thank you Tim Huelskamp for being a stalwart example of a legislator who does not cave, but stands firm against an ever-expanding government, refusing to support special-interest gold-mines that hurt working Americans."

That statement, however, put the Kansas Chamber squarely at odds with the U.S. Chamber, which has been sponsoring independent TV ads in the 1st District criticizing Huelskamp and supporting Marshall.

A poll released July 24 by the Docking Institute of Public Affairs at Fort Hays State University showed Huelskamp and Marshall locked in a statistical dead heat, with 15 percent of the voters surveyed still undecided about the race.

Reply 2 comments from Bob Forer Richard Quinlan

GOP primary in 42nd District could be a bellwether for the state

TOPEKA — The 42nd House District, which includes part of eastern Douglas County, may be as good a place as any to watch for signs that a more moderate, pro-public education wing of the Kansas Republican Party will make a resurgence this year.

That’s where Rep. Connie O’Brien, of Tonganoxie, who has been a loyal, conservative ally of Gov. Sam Brownback, is facing a stiff challenge from Jim Karleskint, a former school superintendent.

Karleskint is one of about 50 or so current or former public school teachers, administrators and school board members who are running this year against conservatives who are seen as part of Brownback’s governing coalition.

O’Brien’s campaign finance report wasn’t yet posted on the Kansas Governmental Ethics Commission website when the Journal-World first reported on those numbers Monday. But it became available early Tuesday, and the report shows Karleskint has raised more ($6,475 to $4,970) and spent more ($4,421 to $2,818) than O’Brien so far in the primary campaign.

Rep. Connie O'Brien, 42nd District

Rep. Connie O'Brien, 42nd District

Of course, campaign finance numbers don’t tell the whole story. In fact, many veteran politicians will tell you that the average Kansas House district is small enough that most elections are won and lost on voters’ front doorsteps.

Also important is voter turnout and which side can actually motivate its supporters to show up and vote on Election Day. In recent election cycles, conservative Republicans have been much more effective than moderates at doing that.

But finance reports do give some indication about how broad of a support network a candidate is able to build.

Karleskint’s report, for example, shows a large chunk of his support coming from fellow-educators and the Kansas National Education Association, the state’s largest teachers union.

Jim Karleskint, candidate, 42nd District

Jim Karleskint, candidate, 42nd District

O’Brien’s report, by contrast, shows she received about 60 percent of her contributions from a standard list of regular Statehouse lobby groups such as the Kansas Livestock Association, Kansas Realtors Association and the Kansas Chamber.

The 42nd District is a good place to take the temperature of the Brownback coalition because he carried that district by five percentage points over Democrat Paul Davis in 2014, and Mitt Romney took 60 percent of the vote there in the 2012 presidential race..

Although it reaches into the city of Leavenworth, it’s a mostly rural district that leans conservative. Republicans account for 40 percent of registered voters there, followed by unaffiliated voters at 34 percent, and Democrats at just 24 percent.

Whoever wins the GOP primary will go on to face Democrat Kara Reed, a Tonganoxie city councilwoman.

Recent public opinion polls show Brownback’s approval ratings have plummeted on a statewide level. But a loss for a Brownback ally in the 42nd District could indicate that both he and the governing coalition he has built in the Legislature are in trouble.

Conversely, if O’Brien survives the challenge, that would be another bad omen for moderate Republicans whom Brownback all but purged out of the Kansas Senate in 2012.

There are several other races around the state where pro-public education groups are trying to unseat incumbent conservatives. Among those are two Senate districts in Johnson County: the 11th District, where John Skubal, an Overland Park city councilman, is trying to unseat Sen. Jeff Melcher; and the 21st District, where Dinah Sykes is trying to unseat Sen. Greg Smith.

But a few moderate Republicans in the Legislature are facing some stiff challenges of their own, including Sen. Carolyn McGinn, of Wichita, who is being challenged from the right by Renee Erickson, and Sen. Vicki Schmidt, of Topeka, who faces a tough challenge again this year from former Rep. Joe Patton, whom Schmidt barely defeated in a 2012 primary.

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Vickrey confirms he’ll run for speaker of Kansas House in 2017

Although the general elections are still more than three months away, some Kansas lawmakers are already lining up to run for leadership positions next session.

The latest was Rep. Jene Vickrey, R-Louisburg, who confirmed Wednesday that he plans to run for speaker of the House in the 2017 session, hoping to succeed current Speaker Ray Merrick, of Stilwell, who is retiring from the Legislature this year.

Leadership elections are typically held in late November or December following the general elections.

Vickrey is currently the House majority leader, which is considered the second most powerful position in the House. He was first elected to the House in 1992 in a stunning upset race when he unseated then-House Speaker Marvin Barkus, the last Democrat to serve in that position.

Talking with reporters Wednesday following a State Finance Council meeting, Vickrey was at first coy on the subject and said he isn't actively campaigning for the job just yet.

"I've told my caucus, now is not the time to be running for leadership because we have members that need to be elected," he said.

But when pressed about it, he relented.

"I do plan to be running for leadership," he said.

"Running for speakership, or just leadership?" one reporter asked. "Leadership is broader than just the speakership."

"Yes," Vickrey said.

"Yes what?" another reporter asked.

"I will be running for speaker," Vickrey said. "But, now is not ... I'm not announcing anything because we have work to do."

Traditionally, Kansas House speakers serve no more than two terms (four years) in that position, then retire from the House. A few, including Democrat John Carlin (1977-78) and Republican Mike Hayden (1983-86), have gone on to become governor.

It's not known who else might run for speaker. Rep. Peggy Mast, R-Emporia, the current House speaker pro tem, would be an obvious candidate, but she chose not to run for re-election this year.

Much of it will likely depend on the outcome of the Aug. 2 primaries and to some extent on the Nov. 8 general elections. That will determine, among other things, how strong the conservative wing of the House GOP caucus will be in the 2017 session.

On the Senate side, Majority Leader Terry Bruce, R-Hutchinson, has said he will likely challenge Sen. Susan Wagle, R-Wichita, for the job of Senate president, according to a July 9 story by the Wichita Eagle.

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Kobach defends role in drafting ‘most conservative platform’ in GOP history

TOPEKA — Republicans meeting at their national convention in Cleveland this week adopted what some are calling the most conservative platform in Republican Party history.

In fact, one of the people calling it that is Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach who played a significant role in drafting many of its statements.

"Yes, I absolutely believe that to be the case," Kobach said in a telephone interview from the convention Monday.

Kobach was chosen by Kansas Republicans to be one of the state's 40 delegates to the convention, and one of nine who are pledged to support presumptive nominee Donald Trump for president. And last week, before the full convention began, he spoke to the party's Platform Committee urging adoption of statements on issues ranging from immigration and gun rights to abortion and same-sex marriage.

That platform endorses Trump's campaign pledge to build a wall along the 2,000-mile U.S.-Mexico border; opposes any effort to restrict ownership of any type of guns or ammunition; opposes the use of federal money to fund Planned Parenthood or similar organizations; and expressly condemns the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision legalizing same-sex marriage nationwide.

"I was involved in drafting language that criticizes the Obergefell decision (legalizing same-sex marriage) and the flimsy reasoning of the Obergefell decision," Kobach said.

According to recent polling data, many of those positions put the party directly at odds with rapidly changing public opinion, particularly on the issue of marriage equality. But Kobach made no apologies about that.

"I would compare it to the life issue, the abortion issue," Kobach said. "The Republican Party, after Roe vs. Wade (in 1973) took a stand and said we think the decision is wrong, and we think that the Supreme Court made a mistake, and we think the laws on this subject are still open to debate. And the party began persuading the public ... and public opinion has shifted. Now, for the first time, since Roe v. Wade, you have the majority of Americans stating that they are pro-life."

But recent polling data on abortion is far from conclusive. A CNN/ORC International poll conducted in March showed 78 percent of those surveyed believe abortion should be legal at least some of the time. And in a separate poll by Suffolk University and USA Today in December, a sizeable majority, 58 percent, said they opposed defunding Planned Parenthood.

On the issue of marriage equality, a CBS News poll last month found 57 percent of those surveyed saying it should be legal for same-sex couples to marry, although a majority of Republicans in the survey disagreed.

Most recently, a CBS News/New York Times poll earlier this month showed 57 percent of voters overall oppose building a wall along the Mexican border, although 73 percent of Trump voters support the idea.

The GOP platform, and Kobach's involvement in drafting it, has prompted a predictable level of outrage on the editorial page of the New York Times, which condemned the platform Monday under the headline, "Kansas Zealot Helps Shape the G.O.P.’s Right-Wing Platform."

It's the kind of criticism Kobach says he's grown accustomed to, and which bothers him not at all.

"Generally, if the New York Times editorial page disagrees with what I'm doing, then I think I'm probably doing the right thing," he said.

Reply 8 comments from Richard Neuschafer Fred Whitehead Jr. Michael Kort Kendall Simmons Greg Cooper Dorothy Hoyt-Reed Phillip Chappuie

Huelskamp draws opposition from Chicago Cubs and WWE owners

TOPEKA — A political ad airing on TV stations in Topeka and other parts of Kansas raises an interesting question: Why do the owners of the Chicago Cubs and World Wrestling Entertainment care about who represents western Kansas in Congress?

You wouldn't immediately know that just from watching the ad, which criticizes U.S. Rep. Tim Huelskamp for getting thrown off the Agriculture Committee and endorses his Republican primary opponent, Great Bend physician Roger Marshall.

It's only when you get to the end of the ad when, if you listen closely, you hear that something called the ESA Fund is responsible for the ad's content.

The ESA Fund, formerly known as the Ending Spending Action Fund, describes itself as "an independent organization that proudly supports candidates regardless of party affiliation who favor enhancing free enterprise, reducing the size of government, and balancing our nation's budget. We are also proud to strongly oppose those who do not."

That's as much information as you'll find on the group's website, and it's an example of how difficult it can be for the average voter in the post-Citizens United election environment to really know who is behind the campaign messages they hear, and why.

In this July 22, 2015, file photo, Rep. Tim Huelskamp, R-Kansas, speaks during a House Veterans Affairs Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen, File)

In this July 22, 2015, file photo, Rep. Tim Huelskamp, R-Kansas, speaks during a House Veterans Affairs Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen, File)

According to the website OpenSecrets.org, the ESA Fund is a conservative super PAC made up of a handful of billionaire investors and hedge fund managers that includes the family that owns the Chicago Cubs and the family that turned World Wrestling Entertainment into a multibillion dollar international entertainment business.

Specifically, Marlene Ricketts is listed as contributing $850,000 to the PAC this election cycle. She is the wife of T.D. Ameritrade founder J. Joseph Ricketts. In 2009, their son Tom Ricketts led a bid by the family to purchase the Cubs for an estimated $875 million.

Joseph and Marlene Ricketts, who live in Omaha, are also the parents of J. Peter "Pete" Ricketts, the Republican governor of Nebraska.

Another contributor to the ESA Fund is Linda McMahon of Greenwich, Conn., who, along with her husband Vince McMahon, founded a small regional pro wrestling promotion company in 1980 and built it into the WWE, which is now a multibillion dollar entertainment behemoth. She served as CEO of the enterprise until stepping down in 2009 to run for U.S. Senate from Connecticut. She was the Republican nominee in 2010 and 2012, losing both times to Democratic candidates.

The largest donor to the ESA Fund is billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Singer of New York, who Forbes magazine estimates has a net worth of $2.2 billion. Singer is also a major contributor to the American Unity PAC, which supports pro-gay rights candidates.

Other contributors include hedge fund managers Kenneth C. Griffin of Chicago and William Powers of Florida.

So far this election cycle, the ESA Fund has spent about $2.6 million in various campaigns, much of it for Republican candidates and against Democratic candidates.

But nearly half of that money, $1.1 million, has been spent opposing U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-New Hampshire. And a small amount, $319,748, has been spent opposing Huelskamp, with $64,717 going to support Marshall, his opponent.

At this point, it's difficult to see why the 1st District race in Kansas would have any particular importance to billionaire investors in Omaha, Chicago, New York or Florida, or why, out of the hundreds of races happening this year for the U.S. House, U.S. Senate and governor's offices, they chose to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars in western Kansas.

Perhaps we'll have to wait until after the election to find out.

Reply 6 comments from Jeff Lough Chuck Holder Nick Gerik Lea Orth Clara Westphal

Poll: Trump has big lead over Clinton in Kansas; Brownback’s approval rating worse than Nixon’s

Kansans are sharply polarized over this year's presidential election, but Republican Donald Trump still leads Democrat Hillary Clinton by a substantial margin, according to a new poll out this week.

Still, there are signs that his numbers may be soft in Kansas, although Clinton's numbers show her doing no better than Democrats have done here over the last four presidential cycles.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA on behalf of KSN News in Wichita, shows Trump leading Clinton 47-36 percent, with 8 percent supporting Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and 9 percent still undecided.

Since the 2000 election, Republican presidential candidates have averaged 59 percent of the vote in Kansas while Democrats have averaged 38.3 percent.

The SurveyUSA of 675 registered voters was conducted July 8-11 and had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

The results were in sharp contrast to a John Zogby poll released last month that showed Clinton ahead, 43-36 percent.

"It (SurveyUSA) has more face validity than the Zogby poll, but whether that's a function of methodology or real world political change in the last month, we can't really know," Kansas University political science professor Patrick Miller said. "But Trump is up in a state that's usually safe for Republicans at the presidential level — no surprise. I think Trump is on course to win Kansas, even if he may win it by a lower margin than the typical Republican."

Among Trump supporters in the new poll, though, more than half (55 percent) said they are backing him because they oppose Clinton, and a similar number (54 percent) say they have some reservation about supporting him. Only 42 percent of Trump supporters said they are doing so because they are for Trump.

Clinton's supporters, on the other hand, were a little more firm in their convictions: 60 percent of her supporters say theirs is a vote for Clinton, while only 39 percent say it's a vote against Trump.

Overall, among "likely" voters in the survey, neither major candidate is very popular in Kansas: 41 percent said they view Trump favorably; and only 32 percent said they have a favorable view of Clinton.

But the split between parties showed a striking polarization among Kansas voters: 77 percent of Republican voters said they have an "extremely unfavorable" view of Clinton, and 77 percent of Democratic voters said they have an "extremely unfavorable" view of Trump.

Brownback and local Republicans

How bad are Gov. Sam Brownback's polling numbers? Here's one way to put it in perspective. Richard Nixon resigned from office with a higher approval rating (24%) than Gov. Brownback has in Kansas today (22%).

Granted, the science of public opinion polling has changed a lot in 42 years. And even if we assume both polls are accurate, the spread between Nixon and Brownback is well within both polls' margins of error.

Still, that could have a big impact on upcoming state legislative races. Because even though Brownback's name is not on the ballot, many observers say the legislative races are very much a referendum on his policies and on the incumbent Republican lawmakers who have supported them.

According to the poll, 72 percent of "likely" voters have an unfavorable view of Brownback, including 50 percent who said it's "extremely unfavorable." Even among Republican voters, 57 percent said they have an unfavorable view of him.

"Brownback is not on the ballot in name," Miller said, "but just like a presidential midterm is often about how voters perceive the president, this 2016 legislative midterm could very well be about how Kansas voters perceive the governor independent of anything going on at the national level."

That could be a particular problem in the Kansas City area, where a large number of conservatives who have been in Brownback's camp are facing primary challenges from more moderate Republicans. According to SurveyUSA, that's also the one area of the state where Clinton is leading Trump, by 5 percentage points.

"This is a potential danger to Republicans in state legislative races if Democrats can effectively make specific races about him," Miller said. "I think we're seeing Republicans aware of this danger. Few are embracing him in their campaign messages, and we see a lot of incumbent Republicans cherry picking particular votes to make it look like there is some distance between themselves and Brownback."

Reply 41 comments from Barb Gordon Rick Masters Scott Burkhart Nick Naidenov Tony Peterson Doug Larson Maddy Griffin Gregory Charles Larry Hazard Steve Jacob and 16 others

Capital city begs to differ with Commissioner Matthew Herbert’s Topeka bashing; Herbert apologizes

TOPEKA – Suffice it to say there were people in Topeka who were fairly unamused Wednesday after reading the comments that one Lawrence city commissioner made the night before regarding the Topeka arts scene.

Expressing his displeasure with City Manager Tom Markus' budget recommendations, including cuts to the Lawrence Arts Center and the lack of funding for the proposed East Ninth Street project, Commissioner Matthew Herbert made some comparisons between the Lawrence and Topeka arts communities that were not intended to flatter Topeka.

The Journal-World's Nikki Wentling quoted Herbert as saying: “Congratulations, we just became Topeka, Kansas. I live in Lawrence because it's not Topeka, Kansas. I don't want my legacy to be that I helped to make Lawrence Topeka.”

None by The Journal-World

“Grrr,” was the Facebook comment from one of my neighbors down the street here, a neighbor whose wife works at the Topeka-Shawnee County Public Library.

People here consider that library, and the Sabatini Gallery inside, one of the crown jewels of the capital city and a testament to this city's support for arts and culture. It was financed with a $23 million bond issue that voters in Topeka overwhelmingly approved 20 years ago next month.

But Hi Stockwell, a Topeka-based studio artist, formerly of Lawrence, who owns a gallery in the new and thriving NOTO arts district in North Topeka, had more to say on the subject.

“Comments such as this are insults to both cities,” he said. “It's a bullying process that says little about the issues and a great deal about the person who makes them.”

The NOTO arts district, for those who haven't seen it, is held out here as another example of the vibrancy of the Topeka arts community. It's a place where local artists and investors, largely on their own initiative and without city subsidies, took over vacant buildings in a decaying part of the city that was close to becoming a post-industrial ghost town, and turned it into an arts mecca, full of galleries and trendy restaurants that now draw visitors and shoppers by the thousands.

NOTO, however, is just one example of what some people here would call a cultural revival taking place in Topeka.

Over at Topeka City Hall – a building that includes the refurbished, Art Deco-style Topeka Performing Arts Center – officials were laughing off Herbert's comments.

City spokeswoman Aly Van Dyke called attention to the newly redesigned Kansas Avenue, the city's main downtown strip, a project that is just now wrapping up after two years and more than $6 million of public investment in the streetscape alone.

The area now features broad sidewalks and “pocket parks” that invite musicians and public activities, not to mention statues and other public art celebrating the history and culture of Topeka and the state of Kansas.

The public art, though, was not funded by the city. It all came from private donations, Van Dyke said. In the planning stages of the project, the city set a goal of getting $1.8 million in private funds. It ended up getting $3.8 million.

And that's one of the key differences between the Lawrence and Topeka arts communities. It's true that Topeka does not have the kind of publicly funded arts center that Lawrence has, and it does not invest large amounts of public money in public art the way many in Lawrence would like to see their city do.

Instead, Topeka has had to rely more heavily on drawing significant investment from private sources within the community.

“I consider myself from Lawrence and strongly support the arts, visual and performing, there,” Stockwell said. “Having lived in Topeka the last 15 years, I've found differences, however the struggles remain the same. Those struggles primarily consist of convincing the community of the value of the arts, not only to increase the value of life, but also to the local economy.”


Update:

Herbert posted an apology for his comment on Facebook Wednesday evening, in which he said that he was referring to “the legislature which convenes in Topeka,” not “the private citizens and artists of Topeka.”

“In expressing my desire to see Lawrence stick to their culturally vibrant roots I didn’t need to degrade anyone else’s city,” Herbert wrote. “That was a very poor choice and for that I am truly sorry.”

Reply 20 comments from Tony Peterson David Holroyd Clara Westphal John Hampton Matthew Herbert Bob Forer Cindy Bell Richard Renner Brett McCabe

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee targets Yoder as part of national ad campaign

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began airing TV ads nationwide Monday targeting vulnerable Republicans who have endorsed GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump, and among the media markets being targeted is the Kansas City-centered 3rd Congressional District of Kansas, where U.S. Rep. Kevin Yoder is running for re-election.

Neither of the two ads mentions any member of Congress by name, but DCCC officials say they are being strategically placed in markets where GOP incumbents have allied themselves with Trump.

"House Republicans, like Kevin Yoder, have allowed a man who freely attacks people and intentionally divides our nation to be their standard-bearer without lifting a finger to stop him,” DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján said in a statement last week.

Democrats say they have internal polling that shows Yoder is vulnerable this year. But the ad campaign is also based on a widely held belief — albeit one that Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com disputes — that Trump is most unpopular among upper-income, college educated suburban voters, who make up the bulk of the Johnson County electorate.

Both ads play into that belief. One ad features a series of casually dressed voters, including a middle-age man standing by his suburban-looking home, who asks, "If he's our standard bearer, what the heck happened to our standards?"

The other ad asks viewers how they would feel to learn that their child was a school bully or even the school bully's sidekick. The footage alternates between cleanly dressed white male students harassing another student in school and Trump gesticulating wildly during speeches.

"Johnson County has a lot of just the kind of voter with whom Trump is polling worse than typical Republican nominees usually do: higher income, higher education, suburban, leaning conservative, and female," said Kansas University political science professor Patrick Miller. "So Democrats probably see some rationale in hitting Yoder now, then repolling the race soon to reassess it for future investment."

There are three Democrats vying to challenge Yoder in the general election, but the DCCC is backing Jay Sidie, a former commodities trader for Archer Daniel Midland who now runs an investment firm in Mission Woods.

The other candidates in the Aug. 2 Democratic primary are Reggie Marselus of Lenexa and Nathaniel W. McLaughlin of Kansas City.

DCCC officials said the ads that started Monday will run through the GOP national convention next week.

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Kansas Farm Bureau endorses challenger against Huelskamp in Big First district

The political arm of Kansas Farm Bureau, the state's largest farm organization, is endorsing Great Bend physician Roger Marshall over incumbent U.S. Rep. Tim Huelskamp in the "Big First" congressional district in western Kansas.

The announcement Friday deals a major blow to Huelskamp, a three-term incumbent. KFB is a major presence in rural communities throughout Kansas, and its political action committee, VOTE KFB, wields considerable influence among rural Kansas voters.

In recent years, Huelskamp, a Tea Party favorite, has often been at odds with GOP leaders in the U.S. House, so much so that he was removed from the House Agriculture Committee in 2012. That riled KFB members because it marked the first time in modern memory that no Kansas representative served on that committee. During the 2014 elections, VOTE KFB made no endorsement in the 1st District.

“The county Farm Bureau evaluation committees made thoughtful recommendations in each district," KFB's political action committee said in a statement. "A clear message of strong support was delivered to the VOTE FBF board, and these endorsements are a result of that effort. We are proud of our grass roots process, and look forward to working with all of these individuals in the next Congress.”

The primary campaign in the 1st District heated up early when Marshall got into the race in April. In press releases and social media posts, Huelskamp has attacked Marshall, an obstetrician-gynecologist, for being tied to a medical practice that supports abortion.

Marshall, however, describes himself as "staunchly pro-life" and says he "oppose any efforts to ever use taxpayer funding for abortions."

VOTE KFB endorsed two other incumbent members of congress: Reps. Lynn Jenkins in the 2nd District, which includes Lawrence; and Mike Pompeo in the Wichita-centered 4th District. Earlier this year the group announced its endorsement of 3rd District Rep. Kevin Yoder and U.S. Sen. Jerry Moran.

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