Five-minute scouting report on Kentucky

Kentucky head coach John Calipari responds to a question about his thougts on meeting Bill Self and the Jayhawks again in the national title game during a press conference on Sunday, April 1, 2012 at the Superdome.

All statistics courtesy of KenPom.com and are current as of April 2.

Team: Kentucky
Record: 37-2
Seed: 1
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 1

photo by: Nick Krug

Kentucky head coach John Calipari responds to a question about his thougts on meeting Bill Self and the Jayhawks again in the national title game during a press conference on Sunday, April 1, 2012 at the Superdome.

Strengths

Much like Ohio State, Kentucky enters as one of the most balanced teams in college basketball.

The Wildcats rank second in adjusted offensive efficiency and 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Ohio State and UK are the only two teams nationally to rank in the top 11 in both.

Offensively, Kentucky has few weaknesses. The Wildcats are especially strong inside, where they make 53 percent of their twos (19th nationally) and grab 38 percent of the available offensive rebounds (20th nationally). UK almost never turns it over, giving it away on just 17 percent of its possessions (21st nationally).

photo by: Nick Krug

Kentucky forward Terrance Jones moves between Kansas defenders Jeff Withey (5) and Thomas Robinson for a bucket during the first half on Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2011 at Madison Square Garden in New York.

The Wildcats don’t shoot many threes, but they are accurate when they do, making 38 percent (43rd nationally).

And, yes, this is a pretty good free-throw shooting team for coach John Calipari, making 72 percent of its tries (67th nationally).

Defensively, Kentucky has the best effective field-goal defense in the nation (42 eFG%) while also limiting opponents to a 40-percent two-point percentage (second nationally). Most of the reason for this is blocked shots, as UK leads the nation by swatting 20 percent on the opposition’s two-point field goals.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas guard Naadir Tharpe extends to the bucket as Kentucky forward Terrance Jones swoops in to swat his shot during the first half on Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2011 at Madison Square Garden in New York.

Even with the high block numbers, the Wildcats have done an outstanding job avoiding fouls. Opponents average just 15 free throws per game against UK compared to 59 field-goal attempts.

Weaknesses

Defensively, Kentucky’s greatest weakness is that is doesn’t force the action.

The Wildcats create turnovers on just 18 percent of their defensive possessions, which ranks 297th nationally.

Kentucky also isn’t the best defensive rebounding team, as the Wildcats grab 69 percent of the available defensive rebounds (121st nationally). Louisville took advantage of this Saturday, when it pulled down 41 percent of the available offensive rebounds (19 of 46) against UK in a 68-61 loss.

Kentucky’s bench is even thinner than Kansas’, as the Wildcats get just 22 percent of their minutes from reserves (323rd nationally).

Though UK is immensely talented, it doesn’t have many veterans on the roster; KenPom’s “experience” measure ranks Kentucky as the sixth-youngest team in the NCAA.

Players to Watch

Six-foot-10 forward Anthony Davis has won almost every national-player-of-the-year award thanks to his disruptive defense and efficient offense.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas forward Thomas Robinson vies for a rebound with Kentucky forward Anthony Davis during the second half Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2011 at Madison Square Garden in New York.

The freshman blocks 14 percent of opponents’ two-pointers (third nationally) while also grabbing 24 percent of the available defensive rebounds (49th nationally). Davis also has been able to avoid foul trouble, averaging just 2.4 fouls per 40 minutes (373rd nationally).

Offensively, almost all of Davis’ shots come from point-blank range. He’s made an eye-popping 67 percent of his twos this year (206 of 307) and also is a good free-throw shooter, making 71 percent of his tries there.

Davis also the best offensive rebounder in Kentucky’s rotation, grabbing 11 percent of his team’s misses while he’s in (184th nationally).

Six-foot-7 wing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and 6-9 forward Terrence Jones are similar players, as both rank in the top 300 nationally in offensive rebound percentage and in the top 500 nationally in block percentage while posting identical defensive rebounding percentages (16.3 percent) and two-point field-goal percentages (53 percent). Kidd-Gilchrist is more turnover-prone than Jones, but he’s also a better free-throw shooter, making 75 percent of his tries compared to 63 percent for his teammate.

Sophomore guard Doron Lamb and senior guard Darius Miller both enter as accomplished shooters. Lamb has made 47 percent of his threes (73 of 157) while averaging just 1.1 turnovers per game.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas guard Elijah Johnson and Kentucky guard Doron Lamb collide while going for a loose ball during the second half on Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2011 at Madison Square Garden in New York.

Miller, meanwhile, has been efficient inside and out, making 57 percent of his twos (86 of 150) and 37 percent of his threes (55 of 147).

If UK’s lineup has a weak link offensively, it’s point guard Marquis Teague. He makes just 44 percent of his twos and 31 percent of his threes while turning it over at a high rate.

Bottom Line

The national championship game will feature the nation’s two best two-point defenses, as both KU and UK have allowed opponents to shoot just 40 percent from inside the arc this year.

The good news for KU is that it won’t have to change how it plays. The Jayhawks will be able to play big-for-big against Kentucky — a team that boasts the second-tallest team in the nation in terms of average height according to KenPom.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas forward Thomas Robinson hangs on the rim after a dunk over Kentucky forward Anthony Davis during the first half on Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2011 at Madison Square Garden in New York.

I think the two biggest keys for KU will be rebounding and the play of Tyshawn Taylor.

The Wildcats are stingy on first shots, but they haven’t always been the best at limiting second chances. Though KU has spent most of the tournament shooting like my college intramural team, the Jayhawks have been really good at giving extra energy to track down loose balls and gain extra possessions on the offensive glass.

Also, if you’re looking for KU’s most favorable matchup, it’s Taylor against Teague.

UK’s freshman doesn’t come away with many steals and also is prone to turnovers himself.

Though Taylor has had some rough offensive games this tournament, this is a game where KU needs him to take advantage of his matchup.

KenPom gives KU a 40-percent chance of winning while predicting a 71-68 UK win.

That score seems a tad high to me, as I’d expect a slow-paced, defensive struggle, especially when you consider it’s a tough shooting gym with an officiating crew that shouldn’t call many fouls.

Still, this is no David-Goliath. The stats say KU has a legitimate chance at a national title, especially considering the fact that the Jayhawks only have to win a one-game series.